South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 24/12/13

[Keraunic]

Bit calmer here now but very chilly.

I'm having such fun with my flight radar. I'm a big kid. Woo hoo!!

[Ruthie]

Evening all!! Tis chilly. Just went outside and can see all the planes stacked up to land at heathrow!! Was nice not having so many planes landing last few days. Oh well.

Leftovers beef tonight for dinner, time for some cava now I think. Cheers all!

[Snowangel-MK]

....... must sit down for a while

.

.... Must be an age thing Chris ! Hope your having a good day :-)

[Jason T]

Get ready its coming.

 

(Twitter Comment Two)GFS12z goes for a cold & wintry 2nd week of Jan. Snow for many if right, but it's probably a cold outlier in the GEFS. Will know by 6.15ish

 

I have this strange feeling its not an outlier, Will confirm later.

 

 

Ok i will shoot myself down, It was a big cold outlier. Bugger.

[gottolovethisweather]

Hope you all had a good Christmas but if it's snow and ice you're after in the coming days, the outlook is truly shocking as my post indeed shows.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78787-model-output-discussion-17th-dec2013-12z-onwards/?p=2877073

[alexisj9]

Hope you all had a good Christmas but if it's snow and ice you're after in the coming days, the outlook is truly shocking as my post indeed shows.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78787-model-output-discussion-17th-dec2013-12z-onwards/?p=2877073

I think it looks like this picture of the scream.

 

http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Ftheguardian%2F2012%2Fapr%2F13%2Fmunch-the-scream-zoe-williams&h=0&w=0&sz=1&tbnid=r-lw4GNtVBnpfM&tbnh=174&tbnw=290&zoom=1&docid=IZn4E6zonEToJM&ei=aNW9UuebO4ab1AW0loC4Dw&ved=0CBAQsCUoBw

 

I wonder what run number twelve is trying to say.

[john pike]

 

slight outlier at the end

 

fi on the 3rd there

 

note the rain spikes dropping from the 7th

[Jax]

Picture of the tree that fell down in my garden from Mondays storm

THAT was one HELL of a storm you had there!

 

All still the right way up here, just a tad cooler and damper mind.  Been out shopping and brought all this healthy stuff, salads and the like, must be new year coming after a few days overdoing it then!

[Sussex Jules]

 

slight outlier at the end

 

fi on the 3rd there

 

note the rain spikes dropping from the 7th

Thanks as ever John. Judging by some of the streams round here some worrying spikes until the 7th then.

[john pike]

tonight

 

a weak westerly flow

 

temps

 

cold frost likely

 

dry but mist and fog poss kent - south coast area

 

------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow

a weak north west to west flow

 

temps

 

cold around 5-6 degrees

 

maybe a shade warmer on the south coast where low cloud and light drizzle may stick around

 

other than that looks mainly dry

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow night

 

 

a weak but cold north west flow

 

rain

 

the far south east may see some light showery drizzly stuff

 

clearing around 4am

 

then getting cold

 

 

expect a widespread frost overnight

 

windscreen scrapers at the ready

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

sunday

 

a breezy but not strong south west flow

 

rain

 

looks dry and poss sunny

 

temps

 

around 5 degrees

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

sunday night

 

 

starting chilly but wamer air incoming

 

by around 8pm (sunday)

 

strong south east and poss gale force start again

 

rainfall

 

around 2-3am heavy rain moves in

 

wind

 

the kink below ireland moving in quickly could give us some pretty stormy conditions around rush hour

 

more a tad nearer the time

 

not cold

 

---------------------------------------------------------------

 

monday

 

strong winds lasting on a south westerly up to around lunchtime

 

changing back to a weaker but cooler westerly flow

 

heavy rain

 

still persisting

 

hope thats wrong

 

temps

 

 

 

up to around 8 degrees

 

cooling down fairly quick once the rain finally clears

 

flooding back in the equation again i am afraid

 

 

rest later

[chilly milly]

Ooh I have found something that makes me very happy.  And so I would like to take the opportunity to wish

 

Chris Mantle

 

wchris_uk

 

Floatylight

 

and

 

Mark Wheeler

 

A Very Happy Birthday today

 

I hope you've had a great day!

[john pike]

Thanks as ever John. Judging by some of the streams round here some worrying spikes until the 7th then.

 

hi sussex

 

sat and sun looking mainly dry with the odd lightish shower floating around

 

sun night monday looking concerning again

Ooh I have found something that makes me very happy.  And so I would like to take the opportunity to wish

 

Chris Mantle

 

wchris_uk

 

Floatylight

 

and

 

Mark Wheeler

 

A Very Happy Birthday today

 

I hope you've had a great day!

 

Ooh I have found something that makes me very happy.  And so I would like to take the opportunity to wish

 

Chris Mantle

 

wchris_uk

 

Floatylight

 

and

 

Mark Wheeler

 

A Very Happy Birthday today

 

I hope you've had a great day!

 

happy birthday all

 

thanks chilly

[Summer of 76]

Thanks everyone for the birthday wishes, just about read the forum now due to my old eyes.

 

When I was born the snow was very deep and somehow I survived in a house without central heating, no snow in the forecast at the moment and I do wonder if this winter maybe different to previous years. The post from Ian Ferguson on the model thread and also the updated met office contingency planning forecast don't really offer to much hope if your looking for an easterly.

[chilly milly]

Have you got the right specs on Chris that makes a hell of a difference. 

 

I'm disappointed in the lack of snow on the horizon.  I was happy to go without snow this month in the hopes of a wintry New Year.  Godammit, after recent years, it feels very late coming.

[john pike]

hi chris

 

always remember

 

the reliable timeframe is 7 days

 

i am not worried re these comments as the models can flip quite quick

 

and the met office outlooks change all the time

 

patience is the key

 

it will come

 

also one thing the models are not good at is getting easterlies correct

 

theres always my ramp charts while we are waiting though

[JennyJane1]

All jump on me and call me crazy, but for several years I have had the impression that the seasons have changed months, to my mind, snow and winter are now set in February to April, whereas what we would previously have called colder months, October to December/January are now Autumn.

Edited December 27, 2013 by JennyJane1

[Snowangel-MK]

Got my snowy fix at the cinema today by going to see FROZEN ....

.....need to get enough to build my own Snowman now, if not I might have to buy one from the Disney shop !!

[abruzzi spur]

Thanks everyone for the birthday wishes, just about read the forum now due to my old eyes.

 

When I was born the snow was very deep and somehow I survived in a house without central heating, no snow in the forecast at the moment and I do wonder if this winter maybe different to previous years. The post from Ian Ferguson on the model thread and also the updated met office contingency planning forecast don't really offer to much hope if your looking for an easterly.

Hello Chris, your early years same as mine I think, net curtains frozen hard to the windows, maybe you had a Parkray fire burning downstairs, newspapers thrown down to allow the coalmen in to deliver their wares, so as the lino wasn't damaged (years later we worked out that a dusty boot would not have made a tiny piece of difference).

 

This winter is an odd one for me in lots of ways, some of which I have tried and failed to articulate this month, but the oddest thing is that for the first time ever I really and genuinely don't care whether or not we get snow.  I am hoping this is a temporary aberation etc etc but I think what I mean is I would love it if it did but it wouldn't matter if it didn't.

 

AS

[john pike]

heres what the charts show at 120

 

gfs 18z

 

 

ecm at 120

 

 

 

now ukmo at 120

 

 

quite a difference there

 

especially gfs

 

that low showing will be fi in my eyes

 

especially if ukmo strengthens that north east blocking

 

ukmo at 144

 

 

its certainly trying to

 

so more runs needed

 

havent heard that one before

[john pike]

tuesdays fax

 

a strong south west wind

 

rainfall

 

dry am to mid pm then

 

 

 

heavy rain moving in but clearing around 2am ish

 

winds light again now

 

i would not be surprised to see some thunderstorms if this set up stays

 

temps

 

 

10-12 degrees

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

awaiting wednesday

[snowblues]

Must admit eagerly waiting for my snow fix, its being a bit of await so far.Even to see snow falling would be nice to look at.At least January is starting to look more like winter in the models at the moment. Couldn't bare another December Atlantic onslaught. Yuk !

[john pike]

wednesday

 

a breezy but not strong south west wind

 

rainfall

 

dry am

 

trough on the fax chart

 

leading to more heavy rain late pm

 

temps around 10 degrees

 

again another chance of a rumble or 2 here

 

## note another low incoming from our west ##

 

overall not great

 

 

although good thing

 

nice high to our east-north east showing

Edited December 27, 2013 by john pike

[john pike]

ecm ensembles for london

 

 

fair agreement to the 3rd then quite a spread

 

ecm right at the top of the ensembles

 

gfs right on the average line which looks pretty chilly

 

rainfall

 

 

finally looking  dryer from the 3rd onwards

 

wind

 

 

noticeable on the 30th the 1st and 3rd

 

then fi after that

[Jax]

Ooh I have found something that makes me very happy.  And so I would like to take the opportunity to wish

 

Chris Mantle

 

wchris_uk

 

Floatylight

 

and

 

Mark Wheeler

 

A Very Happy Birthday today

 

I hope you've had a great day!

Am I too late?

 

Happy Birthday all the same.

 

 

Just looked out and still quite breezy here, feels cool out too, only had to chuck a milk carton in the bin so was not out long enough to make a full check on the weather.

[Iceni]

THAT was one HELL of a storm you had there!

 

All still the right way up here, just a tad cooler and damper mind.  Been out shopping and brought all this healthy stuff, salads and the like, must be new year coming after a few days overdoing it then!

 

I invested in a thing called a Nutribullet (I was watching one of those shopping channels out of the corner of my eye one morning and this made me pay attention).

 

Basically a very strong blender which takes raw fruit and veg or nuts and oats etc. and pulverises them into delicious drinks. Today I had a banana, frozen berries and spinach shake. Stick them in the bullet, fill with water to the Max line and switch on. You can also heat up the stuff and have a soup, but it's better raw, and because everything is liquidised you absorb every single vitamin more easily.

 

 

Thanks everyone for the birthday wishes, just about read the forum now due to my old eyes.

 

When I was born the snow was very deep and somehow I survived in a house without central heating, no snow in the forecast at the moment and I do wonder if this winter maybe different to previous years. The post from Ian Ferguson on the model thread and also the updated met office contingency planning forecast don't really offer to much hope if your looking for an easterly.

 

Me too, although my bedroom was above the kitchen and the Aga. I almost miss seeing those frost feathers and patterns on the windows nowadays.