Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Snowy L]

Why should this current output be believed any more than the previous gfs?

 

Despite the poor outlook, low heights in southern Europe has been a feature in every run of every model. It completely disappeared in the 12z GFS. I'm still not convinced we will get the block and I'm favoring the Atlantic, but there's not a chance the high will sink so far south so quickly like it did on the 12z GFS, low southern Europe heights will keep it in place.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Snowy L

[Ice Day]

Winds starting to veer S'Easterly, cold uppers marching across the North Sea.  Looking good at the moment

 

 

[Stuie]

Cross model agreement up to T120/ T144 which is excellent. As I mentioned earlier the GEM was the more natural looking evolution with the low but what is sort of "fun"? is that there is either model agreement yet again or 3/4/5 different permutations.

I don`t think I have seen a crossroads like this before, it`s almost a game. 

[The Northern Ramper]

As the key changes are so early in the run you have to take the 18z as favourite over the 12z suite, with it being 6 hours nearer t0.

If it turns out that the Gem has nailed this evolution then major kudos to it. Surely it will gain the respect of the majority for its recent performance.

[SMU]

Why should this current output be believed any more than the previous gfs?

 

Technically it 'should' be more accurate because what was 72 hours away earlier is now 66 hours away now- hence slightly more accurate

 

Sadly that's not the case in volatile situation like this-

 

174 sees low dewpoints & cold air sweeping in-

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1749.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1748.gif

 

S

[The Northern Ramper]

very trueIt really cannot be emphasies enough, take time to look at the latest run, think about it, compare it at short time scales to previous outputs, then decide what you think will happen and why, then post? oh and remember the 18z is the pub run so can be discounted!

Surely though as the changes are so early we have to sit up and take note?

[Bristawl Si]

Winds starting to veer S'Easterly, cold uppers marching across the North Sea.  Looking good at the moment

 

 

maybe it's just delayed a few days

[John Cox]

Big improvement at T159.

 

Low moving further into southern Europe.

 

18z

 

 

12z

 

[tight isobar]

Much better+174 gfs 18z more eastern inflow

[Whether Idle]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=180&code=0&mode=0

 

At 180 and looking like a cold shot for the NE?

[Panayiotis]

Nice cold pool arriving from southern Norway, via quite a strong easterly!

[Purga]

Snow for the south

[Jason T]

As the key changes are so early in the run you have to take the 18z as favourite over the 12z suite, with it being 6 hours nearer t0.If it turns out that the Gem has nailed this evolution then major kudos to it. Surely it will gain the respect of the majority for its recent performance.

 

 

Funny you should mention Gem has nailed it, There are comments elsewhere, ie Twitter, Conclusion tonight is that the GEM model has been too Consistent to be totally wrong & is also the best Model to predict Colder weather.

 

 

Very Interesting to say the least. 

 

1000 USERS "NICE"

Edited January 9, 2014 by Jason T

[Snowy L]

That shortwave over Germany is helping to keep the Scandi high North. It might even cut it off from that other High in southern Russia and then we would be in business.

[Yarmy]

Time for bed. Nice to end on a more upbeat note:

 

 

 

Ready for another day of uncertainty.

[tight isobar]

-12 uppers incoming east coastal 12z

[bluearmy]

gem did well with the cold spells last winter but you can hardly call its recent 2 runs consistent !

[Ice Day]

Super stuff at 192 - keep it coming!!

 

[Snowy L]

No idea what the low res is doing, no pressure gradients anywhere over the UK

[Weather Boy]

Funny you should mention Gem has nailed it, There are comments elsewhere, ie Twitter, Conclusion tonight is that the GEM model has been too Consistent to be totally wrong & is also the best Model to predict Colder weather.

 

 

Very Interesting to say the least. 

 

1000 USERS "NICE"

But we are told by those who know more than most of us that consistency does not equate to chance of verification....a concept that I struggle to grapple with....!

[tight isobar]

Bizarre, -12 850 +192....+204 -8 right back to scandi???

[Purga]

FI interesting to start then

[nick sussex]

Lol! another change in the outputs! Oh dear this is getting silly now.

 

Just shows the importance of timing upstream and the football low changing to oval can we get the elongated tomorrow? The crucial thing is that the UKMO output does not verify at T96hrs.

 

We await the fax charts with interest, do they leave the Freddie Kruger output intact with no modifications or do they shelve the Nightmare T96hrs raw output.

[bobbydog]

we seem to have a zonidional flow.......

 

[Panayiotis]

NAVGEM 18z still showing the round low... However it is better with the low ever so slightly negatively tilted and the high pressre over scandi is is much better orientated (flatter) and further north

Edited January 9, 2014 by Panayiotis