Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Dancerwithwings]

ECM 12Z 144h from yesterday

 

 

GFS 12Z 144h today..... Quite similar don't you think.

 

[nick sussex]

I can't stress enough to the coldies and especially the newbies in here how important is that you get a clean break with energy coming off the PV chunk to the nw, the phasing acts to pull the low heights to the nw east rather than se.

 

Theres a very easy way out of all this drama a westwards correction and more amplification upstream, but will the models deliver this?

[Purga]

At +t168 there's a lot of damned pressure from the Atlantic being aided and abetted by the cursed azores HP.

 

Ditto at +t216

 

Edited January 14, 2014 by Purga

[Long haul to mild]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011412/ECM1-168.GIF?14-0

 

Well, we won't get an Easterly from that!

 

Typical that when the GFS finally looks like it may be interested in some cold weather, the ECM jumps ship to a flat Atlantic pattern!

 

Still much to be resolved I feel.

Edited January 14, 2014 by Chalk Serpent

[mulzy]

At +t168 there's a lot of damned pressure from the Atlantic being aided and abetted by the cursed azores HP.

 

 

Yep, the Azores High living up to its reputation as the 'winter killer' - no quick route to cold from that chart I'm afraid.

Edited January 14, 2014 by mulzy

[Mucka]

Typical of this winter JMA delivers a decent upstream pattern but has rather dramatically sunk high pressure SE from the mid term.

 

[nick sussex]

You're not far away from a snow event given tonights outputs,I'm sure the UKMO will keeping a close eye on this as the next low moves in you could pull in a se flow and this could undercut the precip.

 

If theres more trough disruption to the west then there are loads of previous set ups like this which did deliver on the snow front.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Yep, the Azores High living up to its reputation as the 'winter killer' - no quick way to cold from that chart I'm afraid.

I would say there is a quick way to Cold from that chart , as it comes up against that massive block it could be forced to undercut or moved back west ... id be very surprised if that went straight through 

[nick sussex]

The ECM starts to disrupt that troughing at 216hrs and pressure rising towards Svalbard, another twist in the saga.

 

This is like that series Lost, can we just get to the end and deliver the cold, we don't want any more sub-plots!

Edited January 14, 2014 by nick sussex

[Weather-history]

Yep, the Azores High living up to its reputation as the 'winter killer' - no quick route to cold from that chart I'm afraid.

Depends on what where the "cold" comes from. ECM shows quite a chilly westerly-northwesterly flow.

[Cloud 10]

The ECM starts to disrupt that troughing at 216hrs and pressure rising towards Svalbard, another twist in the saga.

 

This is like that series Lost, can we just get to the end and deliver the cold, we don't want any more sub-plots!

 

Tonight's run seems to suggest what NOAA talked about last night.

 

THIS SUGGESTS ASUBSTANTIAL SUBSEASONAL CLIMATE EVENT IS FORECAST TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE CONUS

 

[Captain Shortwave]

What I would give for a solid trend instead of the models shooting wildly even at 4-5 days out.

Just when the GFS/UKMO give hope, the ECM goes westerly, but then cuts the jetstreak out at the end and we have another disruption low event.

That huge cold plunge into the states would of course be a decent reason for the at times completely random output downstream.

Edited January 14, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[nick sussex]

Tonight's run seems to suggest what NOAA talked about last night.

 

THIS SUGGESTS A

SUBSTANTIAL SUBSEASONAL CLIMATE EVENT IS FORECAST TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE CONUS

 

ECH0-240.gif

We want our Climate Event! yes the outputs today are moving to what is expected upstream, well we can be jealous of the USA cold but at least here in Europe we can go and get a pint of milk from the shop without getting our heads blown off.

 

At least we don't get tornados, extreme heat etc, and of course are less likely to end up as a statistic. A lot to be thankful for even if the winter weather can be very frustrating.

Edited January 14, 2014 by nick sussex

[Long haul to mild]

Doesn't look like any end soon to this model saga. We have encouraging signs from the GFS tonight and to a lesser extent the UKMO, but ECM is very much like the 0z run in the way it brings a lot of energy off the Atlantic. If only the block would stop showing signs of sagging SE, then we could be in business.

 

However, I am worried that this confusion will lead to a rash of dramatic hand-wringing posts, so I would like to suggest that, in the interest of coldie positivity, that the site "swear filter" includes the following new entries:

 

1. Change "over" to "on" : as in "it looks like it's game on for now"

 

2. Change "write off" to "big up" : as in "I am going to have to big up winter"

 

3. Change "towel" to "snowball" : as in "it's time to throw the snowball in"

 

Edited January 14, 2014 by Chalk Serpent

[ANYWEATHER]

What I can see from gfs and ecm is positives for cold weather fans tonight! IF you can see the Atlantic in charge from the outputs tonight than Im looking at the wrong output    Encouraging signs

Edited January 14, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[ghrud]

Tonight's run seems to suggest what NOAA talked about last night.

 

THIS SUGGESTS A

SUBSTANTIAL SUBSEASONAL CLIMATE EVENT IS FORECAST TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE CONUS

 

ECH0-240.gif

 

Translate please.... its okay answered my own question. 

CONUS = Contiguous United States Edited January 14, 2014 by ghrud

[Stuie]

Tonight's run seems to suggest what NOAA talked about last night.

 

THIS SUGGESTS A

SUBSTANTIAL SUBSEASONAL CLIMATE EVENT IS FORECAST TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE CONUS

 

ECH0-240.gif

My inlaws are in PA, about an hour from Philly/NY. The recent blast was just about tolerable but that looks epic.

 

Regarding the ECM FI, that is an ultra block with the Scandi/Russian high. Decent cold into Europe too. This is a pretty bizarre winter, winter = cold/snow correct? There is also the flip of the coin where we could have a record winter but for the non cold.

I believe that regardless of when or how soon we will get a normal winter but whether we need help from the warming is yet to be seen. We wanted a pattern change from zonal, we have that. We need another pattern change, moving the block or another nearer to the UK but we have to keep the Azores quiet also so that would probably mean getting as much cold into Iberia as we can.

 

Anyway, the last ECM FI chart.

[nick sussex]

I don't know about anyone else but I'm exhausted! its been a very long week and at times has felt like we're going round in circles in this attempt to find a little cold and some snow.

 

At least this evening the UKMO is on board with a chance of colder conditions, because its better than the ECM at that timeframe you'd likely find the approaching low would move in at a more favourable angle to deliver snow on the eastern flank.

 

And may disrupt favourably leaving the UK in colder conditions, as with so many colder possibilities for the UK we're very much effected by what happens in the USA in terms of the pattern over the eastern seaboard.

[That ECM]

Genuine question relating to the models. If the meto are seeing 10/15% poss of an easterly then that would suggest that the ECM GFS and UKMO have about 1 in 8 chance of producing a run that shows that outcome. If we then take the morning output from last Wednesday when there was cross model agreement, is this more coincidence when modeled at t144 plus?

If we then see further runs showing consistency then this would suggest the % chance of it happening have increased or I am I wrong?

Thanks in advance.

[Duane S.]

I'm not normally one to get jealous at another's fortune whilst we continually dip out but seriously, USA, don't you think you've had your fair share this winter already!?!?

 

That is some East Pacific ridge forming there! Got to help in the long run for us I would imagine.

Edited January 14, 2014 by s4lancia

[snowmadchrisuk]

Genuine question relating to the models. If the meto are seeing 10/15% poss of an easterly then that would suggest that the ECM GFS and UKMO have about 1 in 8 chance of producing a run that shows that outcome. If we then take the morning output from last Wednesday when there was cross model agreement, is this more coincidence when modeled at t144 plus?If we then see further runs showing consistency then this would suggest the % chance of it happening have increased or I am I wrong?Thanks in advance.

I see it as a developing situation, these model run's keep trying and trying to get through this NE block and they can't , hence they keep changing over and over again ... At the moment the stand off is around the UK area , but it looks like this boundary will move further West as we head towards the start of Feb. As another poster just said that is a massive Pacific ridge developing there, Sticking out like a sore thumb .Good times ahead IMO .

[Dancerwithwings]

The UKMO is the one to watch, Earlier today i did a comparison on how the top three models have done since last thursday http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79043-model-output-discussion-10th-jan-onwards/page-54#entry2895625

 

So with the UKMO showing potential at 144h with -4 850hpa it wouldn't take much to get snow even down to lower levels..... For me this is the model to watch

 

[Duane S.]

Genuine question relating to the models. If the meto are seeing 10/15% poss of an easterly then that would suggest that the ECM GFS and UKMO have about 1 in 8 chance of producing a run that shows that outcome. If we then take the morning output from last Wednesday when there was cross model agreement, is this more coincidence when modeled at t144 plus?If we then see further runs showing consistency then this would suggest the % chance of it happening have increased or I am I wrong?Thanks in advance.

 

Indeed. And I think you have to take into account the fact that Ian has just talked about how progressive NCEP is known to be compared to other models, yet... we have just witnessed an Easterly output from the most progressive of them all, the 12z, Aka 'The Bulldozer'.

 

I get the feeling 10 - 15% is pretty conservative, I wouldn't be surprised to see it raised to 30% in the next 24 hrs.

[Stuie]

Genuine question relating to the models. If the meto are seeing 10/15% poss of an easterly then that would suggest that the ECM GFS and UKMO have about 1 in 8 chance of producing a run that shows that outcome. If we then take the morning output from last Wednesday when there was cross model agreement, is this more coincidence when modeled at t144 plus?If we then see further runs showing consistency then this would suggest the % chance of it happening have increased or I am I wrong?Thanks in advance.

Easterly looks about 5% with the only route being a Northerly/NW option. Problem is the jet stream wants to fire up in about 10 days time and move from a really southern track to one that blasts over the UK again. 

Indeed. And I think you have to take into account the fact that Ian has just talked about how progressive NCEP is known to be compared to other models, yet... we have just witnessed an Easterly output from the most progressive of them all, the 12z, Aka 'The Bulldozer'.

 

I get the feeling 10 - 15% is pretty conservative, I wouldn't be surprised to see it raised to 30% in the next 24 hrs.

Hope you are correct and my 5% is completely incorrect!

[nick sussex]

Genuine question relating to the models. If the meto are seeing 10/15% poss of an easterly then that would suggest that the ECM GFS and UKMO have about 1 in 8 chance of producing a run that shows that outcome. If we then take the morning output from last Wednesday when there was cross model agreement, is this more coincidence when modeled at t144 plus?If we then see further runs showing consistency then this would suggest the % chance of it happening have increased or I am I wrong?Thanks in advance.

It depends what products they're using, the ensembles are generally often split with an easterly and don't normally jump fully across until much nearer the time, its not like a northerly toppler which is much easier to model.

 

Also when the UKMO mention easterly we're not getting the full story because for them an easterly might be the deep cold variety, some of those solutions may show a more se with an undercut but they won't class that as perhaps a proper easterly.

 

At the moment and given tonights outputs I'd put a deep cold easterly at still only around 20%, a snow event with a se undercut at 60%, an undercut with cold extending 50%.

 

If the trough disrupts favourably to the west and the UK continues to sit at the cold/milder boundary that does have a chance of giving some snow events.

 

IMO a proper easterly that people want to see is that one with deep cold uppers that can deliver snow showers, in terms of a slacker easterly flow I'd put the percentage higher but I think what the UKMO might be using is the deeper cold variety, maybe Ian F will clarify this later.