Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Ice Day]

Unfortunately the lack of posts speak volumes. At 144 and I'm not sure how we can get to cold quickly from here!  We must be patient, we will be rewarded!!!!!

 

[Cloud 10]

TBH it seems like mission impossible to forecast exactly how the trough over the UK disrupts

until much nearer the time,but the weather will likely be "messy" when it occurs.

 

GFS,UKMO and ECM at 120 hrs

 

 

 

That Pacific super-ridge forecast in the longer term must surely mean big changes to come

in the northern hemisphere towards the end of January.

[swfc]

TBH it seems like mission impossible to forecast exactly how the trough over the UK disrupts

until much nearer the time,but the weather will likely be "messy" when it occurs.

 

GFS,UKMO and ECM at 120 hrs

 

gfs-0-120.pngUW120-21.gifECM1-120 (1).gif

 

 

That Pacific super-ridge forecast in the longer term must surely mean big changes to come

in the northern hemisphere towards the end of January.

Pacific super ridge?tbh the models are struggling with a feature in the 90-120 mark let alone weeks out.It may occur but looking at the 18z"one run"its already weakening.JH called this earlier and altho it pains me he may be on the money here imo.Time will tell

[Jason M]

In many ways the its irrelevant whether we get an easterly or not at the moment. If its snow and cold your looking for it isn't going to happen at the moment.

This is the 850s for day 5 on the pub run!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=1

With the overall profile in our part of the world getting cold uppers into the mix will be very difficult indeed. An easterly will be a cool dank affair but that's about it. Frontal boundary snow is also very unlikely indeed in my view as an undercutting scenario requires some cold air and there isn't any.

This is just a lull and we will almost certainly be going zonal again. resistance is futile!!! The block may hold a bit longer but its only going to end one way ultimately.

Hopefully Feb brings better news because at the moment things are looking very poor indeed. Over much of Europe this winter could be a record breaker the way things are going.

[Jason M]

ECM at 192

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

GFS at 192

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

JMA at 192

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=1

GEM at 192

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0

GFS 12Z Control

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0 just a bit delayed here

GEM 12 Z Control

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0

Looks like pretty solid agreement between models / ensembles etc etc to me at 192. The route may change but the destination is pretty clear IMHO.

Jason

edit - 192 hours picked as its the end of gfs high res.

Edited January 14, 2014 by Jason M

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM at 192

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

GFS at 192

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

JMA at 192

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=1

GEM at 192

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0

GFS 12Z Control

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0 just a bit delayed here

GEM 12 Z Control

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0

Looks like pretty solid agreement between models / ensembles etc etc to me at 192. The route may change but the destination is pretty clear IMHO.

Jason

edit - 192 hours picked as its the end of gfs high res.

And two days ago we had zonality returning at an even shorter timeframe. I know, I threw in the towel at that point!!! 

The GFS produces a finger of cold air extending out at Greenland which wasn't present in it's 12z run which halts the trough disruption and causes the low to sit in situ in the Iceland region. This is at just 72 hours out. 

Previous run

Nowhere near as extensive hence more energy goes south east

I wouldn't call day 5 at the moment, let alone day 8 onwards.

 

Also if the UKMO went out to T192, would we end up zonal?

Edited January 14, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Mucka]

Can we rename the pub run to the school run? All it seems to bring this winter is abject misery and panic attacks.

[Stuie]

It's not warm out there. The weekend could be interesting. Ecm tomorrow a must watch imo.

[Jason M]

And two days ago we had zonality returning at an even shorter timeframe. I know, I threw in the towel at that point!!! 

The GFS produces a finger of cold air extending out at Greenland which wasn't present in it's 12z run which halts the trough disruption and causes the low to sit in situ in the Iceland region. This is at just 72 hours out. 

Previous run

Nowhere near as extensive hence more energy goes south east

I wouldn't call day 5 at the moment, let alone day 8 onwards.

 

Also if the UKMO went out to T192, would we end up zonal?

In truth, yes I think we would end up zonal. Maybe it would take a day or two longer though.

The weather can make fools of us all and I look forward to seeing a nice frigid easterly tomorrow, but the odds are badly stacked against us at the moment. We still have Feb so not all is lost, but this winter so reminds me of 88 that its just scary. As always, the proof will be in the eating!

[bluearmy]

Day 5 fax hardly smelling of zero potential................

[swfc]

I think the fact that our entire focus on the mo is on a disrupting low which may bring imo at best a cool down from the south east shows how depp bad things are.It is interesting synoptics wise but id guess the majority want winter proper.It is what it is and given the switch run to run it will change tom.For me the blocking to the north east isnt strong enough period and cant even with any undercut get westwards enough.Id also say the nh profile isnt supporting it in the reliable timeframes either.Just my thoughts and id give my mother in laws wooden leg to be totally wrong tom!!!

[nick sussex]

Maybe we can pick a trough set up out of a hat because with so many options on the table FI starts as early as T96hrs:

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!96!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014011412!!/

 

You can view those ECM postage stamps and see what a mess the models are making of this UK troughing.

 

It's very hard to make a forecast when you don't even know what the starting conditions are going to be, some of those ECM ensembles have zero chance of developing cold, whilst others are more favourable.

 

After the trough uncertainty theres also issues upstream so we'll just have to wait and see, heres tonights fax chart at T120hrs, this is very unlikely to look like that tomorrow because of the continued chopping and changing, the UKMO seem to have gone with their raw output.

 

 

Edited January 14, 2014 by nick sussex

[Stuie]

I think the fact that our entire focus on the mo is on a disrupting low which may bring imo at best a cool down from the south east shows how depp bad things are.It is interesting synoptics wise but id guess the majority want winter proper.It is what it is and given the switch run to run it will change tom.For me the blocking to the north east isnt strong enough period and cant even with any undercut get westwards enough.Id also say the nh profile isnt supporting it in the reliable timeframes either.Just my thoughts and id give my mother in laws wooden leg to be totally wrong tom!!!

Nice, your place on Sunday for the carvery, weather permitting.

[Jason M]

Day 5 fax hardly smelling of zero potential................

 

It looks good in isolation from a synoptic viewpoint, but look where the 528 line sits.

 

To be clear, I'm not saying winters over or anything like that. I am strongly of the view though that nothing great will evolve in the next 2 weeks. We may see some interesting synoptics but nothing particularly cold.

 

Until the wider pattern changes were stuck. I can't see any evidence that a change is on the cards at the moment.

[draztik]

It looks good in isolation from a synoptic viewpoint, but look where the 528 line sits.

 

To be clear, I'm not saying winters over or anything like that. I am strongly of the view though that nothing great will evolve in the next 2 weeks. We may see some interesting synoptics but nothing particularly cold.

 

Until the wider pattern changes were stuck. I can't see any evidence that a change is on the cards at the moment.

 

Great post, concise and to the point. It is becoming apparent that any cold weather is not likely in the foreseeable. The mid range ensembles all support some form of westerly flow, with the Canadian ens particularly zonal tonight.

[nick sussex]

Looking at the ECM mean its really not bad given that you're likely to have quite a split developing with the solutions at T120hrs that are already too far east with an unfavourable troughing set up.

 

One thing that caught the eye this evening was that lobe of positive heights beginning to extend towards Svalbard in the latter stages of the ECM, it might be in response to this:

 

 

We can see there a reversal of the zonal flow at those levels and the zonal winds further south towards 50N have slowed quite a lot compared to the supercharged jet we saw for much of December.

 

I won't clutter up the thread too much with strat talk as its not my forte, for those in need of a good brain workout head over to the dedicated thread.

 

Overall this evening we're still stuck in a limbo of what the troughing will do near the UK and will it disrupt and have a clean break with energy spilling east off the PV chunk in ne Canada, this really is the sticking point in terms of snow chances for the UK and also how much cold will be to the east or se to tap into should we get a favourable disruption.

 

You can make a case for several scenarios, theres not much middle ground here because of the set up, so an early clean break would lend itself to a much higher chance of some snow for the UK, and then theres the upstream pattern which hasn't been properly resolved in terms of amplitude.

 

I saw earlier some comments attributed to Mr Dutton who sadly has to slum it now on Channel 4 weather! maybe he can also give us the lottery numbers for the weekend because he's obviously got  a crystal ball, you simply can't rule anything in or out when you have blocking to the ne.

 

As we saw only last week the models couldn't even map the high up there correctly at T96hrs so its always likely to cause a lot of model variability.

 

So we'll see tomorrow what the latest changes will bring because there certainly will be some given the last few days, could be good or bad.

 

 

 

[sully]

Great post, concise and to the point. It is becoming apparent that any cold weather is not likely in the foreseeable. The mid range ensembles all support some form of westerly flow, with the Canadian ens particularly zonal tonight.

[phil nw.]

This is really a frustrating period of model runs with little changing from day to day.

 

The energy, what there is, from that Greenland vortex continues ejecting se across us with the whole lot being held in situ by the blocking further east which continues to do little other than just sit there.

The rest of this week will be dominated by the wind flow around the nearby low with bands of rain or showers and never particularly cold.

Tonight's anomalies 500hPa charts show little overall change to our setup from the weekend with a mean trough still nearby

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011412/EDH101-192.GIF?14-0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-0-0-192.png?12

 

You get the feeling that it's becoming like groundhog day with this repeating stale mate in each day's outputs.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

A tale of two halves at the moment.

1st half being the profile to the North East which looks nice and blocky.

2nd half being that limpet Greenland PV which is just refusing to get a life and move away!

Im beginning to wonder when in Gods name it will super duper,ive seen some pretty resolute and intense Greeny Polar Vortexes in my time but this ome takes the biscuit!

[Timmytour]

 

This is really a frustrating period of model runs with little changing from day to day.

 People will often bemoan the inconsistency of the models....but this is what it's like when, for the most part, they prove to be quite consistently accurate! :-)

[Panayiotis]

A tale of two halves at the moment.

1st half being the profile to the North East which looks nice and blocky.

2nd half being that limpet Greenland PV which is just refusing to get a life and move away!

Im beginning to wonder when in Gods name it will onions,ive seen some pretty resolute and intense Greeny Polar Vortexes in my time but this ome takes the biscuit!

onions?

[The PIT]

No real change overnight. The Atlantic still to strong to allow the block move westward so we stay on the mild side with little prospect of any proper wintry weather for the time being. Normally flip flops in deep FI as expected.

[TSNWK]

Nope ECM not playing either this morning at 144 scandi high retreating and low presure from the north west about to strike.

On both UKMO and ECM we are looking at a couple of wet chilly days over the weekend as the trough drifts south east over us, followed by a couple of chilly days start of next wek with a gentle south east to east drift uppers never below -4 anywhere over the UK during that..

ECM 168 has us under a westerly again and it looks very flat upstream. Not bothering with the rest, getting some more kip before work. Have a good day everyone, it's only the weather and there is nothing we can do about it.

Cheers.

Edited January 15, 2014 by TSNWK

[winterof79]

The block to our N/E builds again at 192z it will not go away and come end of Jan/Early  February could take its chance

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011500/ECH1-192.GIF?15-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011500/ECH1-192.GIF?15-12

Plenty of time yet.

[Weather-history]

I'm not an expert but isn't part of the problem is that there no yellows and oranges associated with the Scandinavian high at the 500hpa level?