Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Long haul to mild]

The block hasn't occurred yet, so the block is a fantasy as much as the easterly, surely?

I would say that there is certainly high pressure to the NE of the UK, so it could be termed a block. I suppose whether it's blown away easily will determine whether it deserves that term!

[BlueHedgehog074]

I think it's probably worth adding this from Thundery wintry showers to reinforce the fact that their is further chances of chilly weather further down the line. This would probably still suggest seeing a piece of the Vortex heading towards Siberia or something, with amplified heights rises to the West of us (probably again helped by some sort of Wave/Stratospheric Vortex killing event), which is probably why we may be more likely to see our cold weather from the North (or maybe North-East), rather than the East.

 

I am standing by my original prediction of a wintry spell around 20-25 January as high pressure drifts E from the Atlantic and merges with any surviving high pressure to the N/NE. I don't think the coming 10 days will deliver much from the east although temperatures may fall close to or just below average at times.

 

 

Admittedly, some of those 12Z models, such as the UKMO, do continue to show things looking a bit too fragile for an Easterly flow next week as they continue to show some of the Lows not quite tracking far enough South, with snow probably still likely to be constrained to hills, or perhaps some lower levels in the far North. Maybe if more negative tilting can be achieved with these Lows then maybe their could be more of a general wintry surprise later next week, particularly for those on the Northern side of the Lows. Otherwise, the second attempt of cold, wintry weather is probably looking the more feasible solution now (edit: although admittedly, even with the second attempt, it is just suggestions for now and things could easily still keep changing. Otherwise, still offers an extra layer of reassurance for those after colder weather).

Edited January 10, 2014 by DiagonalRedLine

[SMU]

Hi Steve, is there any hope to get cold with that shortwave you mention in scandanavia?

 

No. NIL. Until it lifts out around the high or goes under.

 

Up until yesterday it was progged to slide under, sadly this was wrong & its slipped NW to remain in situ over Western coastal regions of Norway-

The ECM 00z lifted this out at day 9 & at day 10 you could see heights building quickly towards Iceland- sadly most of the cold had drained away from Europe by then ( deep cold)

 

Here we go- as if the day 4 ECM 12z 96 couldn't illustrate that point any more

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011012/ECH1-96.GIF?10-0

 

its MIN 1 1/2 days before that lifts out-

 

so no cold progged for the UK until T 144-156 as a minimum tonight ( maybe some surface feed cold from the continent but not snow cold)

 

S

PS still there @ 120 but weakening & perhaps starting to move by then-

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011012/ECH1-120.GIF?10-0

 

S

[bradymk]

ECM 120 looks the best 120 chart of the lot (not that the others are good) Difference between ECM & GFS at 120 is quite marked. The low looks in a better position with better tilt compared to the other models

Edited January 10, 2014 by bradythemole

[Cloud 10]

Well,quite a shift in the ECM compared to yesterday,but not in the desired direction.

 

yesterday..  today..

 

 

Looks like our luck has run out...for now...

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Matty M]

ECMWF throwing a few crumbs of comfort to those still hoping for a taste of cold weather with heights and pressure higher to our northeast than most other models with

still some potential for a turn to cold weather//

[cooling climate]

ECM t120 and everything much further west. Definitely the odd one out tonight

and may be the one having to play catch up with the other two models.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Slack cold air in situ over the British Isles at +96 on the ECM, cold enough for snow for northern and western Britain and Northern Ireland though most likely dry and cold here with no wind.

Actually looks slightly better in some ways than yesterday by Day 5 with good amplification into Greenland and the low starting to fill a bit more quickly. Need to see a bit more 'energy' going under the block to the east to pull the cold air through but certainly not the worst chart I've seen, even if we do end up getting unlucky:

[phil nw.]

A few off topic posts have been removed.

 

I know the recent runs are disappointing for many of us but please try to keep on topic in this thread.

 

If you want a good rant or moan then pop over to here

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/

 

Thanks all.

[Stuie]

Only need a couple of nudges west for at least 1 effort of snow.

[Tamara]

I`m with you Tamara, sceptical. No idea why this low is being that hard to model and the demise of the Scandi high. ECM rolling.... lets see!

I do think that Steve M has just made a very good point about the orientation of the Scandi High and why we are not looking like getting the trough disruption we require. If that isn't right then we are not going to get the cold air advection for the reasons given and rather like, f.e, mid December 2012 and the 'That ECM' scenario tease, it proves of little value.

 

However, we have been waiting on the uncertainty of this right up to this time, with various solutions in the mix, and I think its now time to wait on and see what happens.

 

The ECM is at least thinking about changing that orientation on this particular output fwiw at face value...just several hundred miles too far east

Edited January 10, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[fergieweather]

I think there were a coupe of posts late last night suggesting that the latest ec32 was indicating low presure to the north west, that's all I can recall.

NW/WNW/N flow towards end of run with low heights to north. Average temps in anomalies. But given high Shannon Entropy even by end next week, very low confidence second half Jan. MOGREPS call to spike any cold chance next week appears to have been well-founded... it was the only model keen on mobile, less cold outcome.

[Matty M]

A shame we cannot get a trigger low over northern Italy type area to advect some cold air westwards.

 

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

NW/WNW/N flow towards end of run with low heights to north. Average temps in anomalies. But given high Shannon Entropy even by end next week, very low confidence second half Jan. MOGREPS call to spike any cold chance next week appears to have been well-founded... it was the only model keen on mobile, less cold outcome.

Hi Ian, what does 'high Shannon Entropy' mean? Thanks

[johnny1972]

Our own forecast Raw Data sources are still a million miles away from what is being shown this evening from particuarly the GFS and UKMO models who both seem to sink the Scandinavian High and cold away from Western Europe rather quickly. The problem still seem to be the handling of the low forming out in the Atlantic, these models want to push away any cold chance in a short pulse, whereas we send lower heights into Europe with cold block holding on further to the Northeast. Maybe ECM may come to our rescue? Still time for a change again this weekend.C

CI think many on here have missed a very important point as too why the models are moving away from an easterly. The jet profile. The jet is forecast to dive south in the Atlantic but unlike recent years is not forecast to then send it's energy eastwards through the North African / Mediterranean region which would support any development of a low pressure system over the Italy / Greece regions. Edited January 10, 2014 by johnny1972

[cooling climate]

Lunar influences? Sceptical, very sceptical. Lunar phases are predictable, you can tell what phase the moon will be at a certain date in the year 3000. So why isn't the weather more predictable as a result? Because they are so many variables.

So am I that was the point of the post.

 

Back to the models and the ECM is avin a laugh surely. Does'nt the model know when to stop

the wind ups.

[Troubleatmill]

NW/WNW/N flow towards end of run with low heights to north. Average temps in anomalies. But given high Shannon Entropy even by end next week, very low confidence second half Jan. MOGREPS call to spike any cold chance next week appears to have been well-founded... it was the only model keen on mobile, less cold outcome.

Is there any chance of the MOGREPS ever becoming public Ian?

[SMU]

Hi Ian, what does 'high Shannon Entropy' mean? Thanks

 

Shes the woman that wrote the GFS programming...

 

S

[Eskimo]

 

[stewfox]

Hi Ian, what does 'high Shannon Entropy' mean? Thanks

 

I always ask a chap called google

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entropy_(information_theory)

[Stuie]

Hi Ian, what does 'high Shannon Entropy' mean? Thanks

I think it is something you cannot forecast, or along those lines. High uncertainty.

[Trom]

Uncertainty in the variables

 

oops looks like I was beaten to it.

Edited January 10, 2014 by Trom

[TSNWK]

I think it is something you cannot forecast, or along those lines. High uncertainty.

Yep a measure of certainty or uncertainty, bit like scatter or not on the GFS ensembles.

[MR EXTREMES]

massive differences at 192 on the 12z.

12 hours and the difference is huge.

mid lat block perhaps most likely!!!

Edited January 10, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

So am I that was the point of the post.

 

Back to the models and the ECM is avin a laugh surely. Does'nt the model know when to stop

the wind ups.

What do you mean CC?

I thought we had a good run then judging by your comments?All i see is the high getting shunted off east and a more mobile setup waiting in the wings...