Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[syed2878]

with all due respect to gibby this type of weather doesn't interest many it's commen crap for the u.k. Looking at all 3 main 3 models its another grim output for the u.k and those poor folks who r suffering from floods. I'm quite sure the people who r getting all the floods they won't find today's outputs interesting nor this kind of weather. 

To me it is just as interesting as snow and ice as it makes up what is known as 'The weather'. This morning's charts can hardly be called boring and serve up a cocktail of interesting weather events over the coming weeks. Of course they are not the type of charts that many want to see and it is remarkable to me that how quiet it becomes on here when all chance of cold has gone as if 'weather' as a subject has been removed rather than snow. It would be helpful to 'newbies' if those that post disecting  the atmosphere explaining why this and that will be responsible for bringing cold in the next week or so were to stay on here when the event doesn't happen to explain 'Why' it hasn't happened rather than disappearing from the forum altogether until the next cold shot is shown.

Edited January 28, 2014 by phil nw.

[Timmytour]

In 1956, a winter of little promise right up to the end of January - very wet with the occasional tornado making an appearance - we went from this

to this

From the end of Jan to mid Feb.

Of course the models now are showing nothing like that on the horizon.....but maybe if they'd be around then they wouldn't have shown that transformation either

I live in hope that the Fat Lady has only just started on her main course and still has desert to look forward to before she's ready to do anything else.....

Edited January 28, 2014 by Timmytour

[Summer Sun]

Just got back and unfortunately its no better from the models out to Feb 13th still a lot of rain in the forecast especially for the areas which don't need any more

 

[nick sussex]

Hi Nick,

Can't remember if it was you, nick F of steve M that said a while back... "history shows that in nearly every winter bar mabe one, if by the end of jan, no meaningful blocking or cold is or has been present, it won't be there in feb either"

Not a direct quote pardon me if im wrong

Ric

It wasn't me, perhaps though there is some truth in that. There are some exceptions though with  2005 and 2006 showing up as late February colder spells after generally rubbish zonal winters.

 

Perhaps you could find a decent correlation because it does make some sense, if the PV has not allowed really any colder spells for the UK by that time then its obviously very strong and so it would take longer for it to eventually subside.

 

I might have a gander through some of the archive charts to see what sort of match up there is.

[Eskimo]

Eyes down for the 12z's, expect some massive upgrades with regards to snow events and cold weather, just you watch!

We can all be optimistic right? 

Edited January 28, 2014 by PerfectStorm

[492]

In 1956, a winter of little promise right up to the end of January - very wet with the occasional tornado making an appearance - we went from this

to this

From the end of Jan to mid Feb.

Of course the models now are showing nothing like that on the horizon.....but maybe if they'd be around then they wouldn't have shown that transformation either

I live in hope that the Fat Lady has only just started on her main course and still has desert to look forward to before she's ready to do anything else.....

 

A bit like this then;

 

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

[Ali1977]

During Thursday the charts do show some wintery flurries around the South/south east, not sure how accurate the precipitation charts are though..

Edited January 28, 2014 by Ali1977

[shaky]

Scandi high further west at 48 hours by a margin and more undercutting of that low west of ireland!!every little helps I guess!!especially in these desperate times!!!

[fergieweather]

During Thursday the charts do show some wintery flurries around the South/south east, not sure how accurate the precipitation charts are though.. 

It's been an on-off issue over last 48hrs in NAE versus E4. Based on new signal being bolstered somewhat (again), we go formost likely higher groud north of M4 (Chilterns, Cotswolds, perhaps Wiltshire and Berkshire Down and northern side of Salisbury Plain. Circa 40% chance settling snow on grassy surfaces to NW (Chilterns)....lower risk for the Downs; ditto a low risk (20-30%) of snow falling at low levels in e.g. London and suburbs (only a 10% risk of it settling in the capital and environs).

[warrenb]

Well going by the models so far we barely scrape a south easterly let alone an easterly

[Summer Sun]

It's been an on-off issue over last 48hrs in NAE versus E4. Based on new signal being bolstered somewhat (again), we go formost likely higher groud north of M4 (Chilterns, Cotswolds, perhaps Wiltshire and Berkshire Down and northern side of Salisbury Plain. Circa 40% chance settling snow on grassy surfaces to NW (Chilterns)....lower risk for the Downs; ditto a low risk (20-30%) of snow falling at low levels in e.g. London and suburbs (only a 10% risk of it settling in the capital and environs).

 

Hi Ian, any signs / hints of rainfall starting to ease during February from the in house models what the met use?

[fergieweather]

In all honesty, some wintry PPN/ice issues aside for later tomorrow-early Thurs, the key concern is the phasing of high tides in the west with the next system later Fri across into sat. Concern being progressively raised now by the FFC folk over moderate threat of significant coastal disruption.... one to watch, for sure.

[Eskimo]

Just could this be a better run from the GFS? Low negatively tilted and further south compared to the 06z. Low over Iceland slightly less amplified and backing West instead of slamming into the block.

Edited January 28, 2014 by PerfectStorm

[warrenb]

I think we can safely say it is going to be a stormy weekend.

[Man With Beard]

So, all the big guns have raised the white flag today. The whiff of surrender permeates both this thread and the Strat thread. ECM32 says warm, the models say warm, the METO seem to be quietly expecting warm. Hell, we cant even find an ensemble that suggests any cold weather.All of this is probably quite correct and with my CET prediction of 6.5C for Feb, I'm hardly bucking the trend here. What odds on the weather making complete idiots of the whole lot of us though :-)

No no no no no no no no!!! 

I won't have it!!

I may not understand the ins and outs of strat forecasting, SSTs, MJOs, GWOs and the like. But I do spend a stupid amount of time looking at weather charts, both current and historic.

I think a few people are forgetting some principles and some common sense ideas!

1. Thinking that the UK weather pattern will stay identical for several weeks is very unlikely to be true. You hardly ever get through three weeks without some sort of change, it's so so rare for that to happen! It may not be rare for the PV to keep sending us lows all winter, but the jet will move this way a little, blocking will move that way a little, a little more amplification will get into the flow, so that 9 times out of 10 you will not see exactly the same pattern three weeks later. For example, just at the beginning of this month - all the major models were suggesting no end to the pattern we were in - then a tiny area of heights squeezed up to Iceland between a couple of lows and nearly, nearly sent the whole pattern south. So it is reasonable to expect some change to the pattern, and no-one really knows if that change will allow a period of cold air to come south.

2. The output of long-range weather models is just not trustworthy enough. Time after time I see them want to continue with the weather type they already have e.g. early last March, the ECM 32dayer was forecasting south-westerlies all month - wow that was wrong! and even in December 2010, I remember in mid-December the models favouring a continuation of the cold pattern in the long-term, but it got swept away shortly after Christmas. So it is absolutely fruitless to call an end to snowy chances this winter based on a couple of ECM 32s.

3. History tells us that the chances of snow cover in most of the UK this winter is still better than 50/50. A completely snowless winter, at least north of say Birmingham, is extremely rare. Whenever making a forecast, it makes sense to balance out what the models are saying with what history says. And history suggests that even if you can't see a cold spell coming on the charts, there will be a cold spell even if just for a couple of days, simply because it would be unusual for there not to be! Not saying it's impossible that we won't have snow in the UK again after this Friday (and it's so hard to get snow in southern counties that of course the chances of a snowless winter are higher here), but if I were a betting man I would always veer on the side of what is normal rather than what is exceptional. And since we still have at least 8 weeks left where snow is able to fall and settle without extreme synoptics, I still think "normal" would be to expect snow to be on your garden at some point before spring is sprung.

[The PIT]

Actually weather patterns can stay locked for weeks. Bartlett's, Euro highs and zonal can all stay locked in for weeks. Even if they do change there's guarantee of cold as this winter has shown.

 

Anyway back to models. UKMO shows some very stormy weather for Saturday and a possible repeat a few days later. Another battering for our battered sea defences. I suppose there's one consultion they won't freeze to death.

[fergieweather]

Good ukmo!!heights to the east fighting back!!cold aswell!!could you shed a bit more light on the wintry issue for tomorrow when you get the time fergie!!!I think most of us would like to see even a bit of snow even if it doesnt settle!!

 see my previous post

[Polar Maritime]

Exactly rjbw, after reading all the winters over posts this morning i was amazed, the weather will do what it wants no matter what the models show and there is plenty of time left for a change in the Northern Hemisphere, and with Feb being the month were the Atlantic traditionaly runs out of steam theres plenty to play for, lots of interest in the models in the coming days with yet more stormy weather on the way, but nothing mild in the reliable timeframe, lots of snow for the Highlands and maybe some wintry surprises for the Midlands North over the next week... Nothing boring thats for sure.

[bradymk]

It is nearly February right? feels like November/early december looking at these charts below as i type from behind the curtains. The issue of the vortex in NE Canada persists once again through all the 12z outputs so far, the story of the winter. Not much to comment on cold wise at the moment but of course, Friday and this weekend is of great concern once again. Lots of rain and combining with high tides again, not pretty. If you're a coldie, think its best to sit, watch and hope for now, and hope you dont get flooded in the meantime!! Anyone else starting to really get fed up with the storms now? although they've been fascinating, feels like the winter has been one big storm.

 

I would add the ECM at around 168 mark (more so last nights 12z) does still interest me and could turn out better but the energy in the N Atlantic looks too much again.

Edited January 28, 2014 by bradythemole

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Nick,

Can't remember if it was you, nick F of steve M that said a while back... "history shows that in nearly every winter bar mabe one, if by the end of jan, no meaningful blocking or cold is or has been present, it won't be there in feb either"

Not a direct quote pardon me if im wrong

Ric

Hi Ric

Its a sentiment I have posted before and what I used to stand by and it still holds a lot of form, but something which is not infallible as last winter showed with the incredibly snowy and cold Spring with blizzards in places.  Generally though I have felt that if we've had a mild Dec and Jan and we have no cold blocking in place or advancing by end of Jan we won't see any in the 'winter' months.

I have generally written Feb off and I suggested back on 12th Jan that my signal was more active Atlantic weather to continue...and my concern is also of a SW/NE axis to develop as we head through Feb.

We are in a rut, and we could move on into another 'rut'.  It has to be said though that this winter 'weatherwise' and synoptically has been very interesting with our own version of 'extremes'.  And it seems more extremes to come.  With a jetstream meandering the way it has and is hemispherically somewhere has to be really cold and somewhere mild. 

So for me I'm going to have to get to the Alps for my snow fix, or the Scottish Mountains this winter...

 

BFTP

Edited January 28, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[sunnijim]

with all due respect to gibby this type of weather doesn't interest many it's commen crap for the u.k. Looking at all 3 main 3 models its another grim output for the u.k and those poor folks who r suffering from floods. I'm quite sure the people who r getting all the floods they won't find today's outputs interesting nor this kind of weather.

I would imagine anyone with a love of the climate would agree with gibby,agreed we have been served up the same for a few months but the depth and potential of our next storm system excites and concerns at the same time.We are talking about a 955mb system on our shores according to the models,so weather 'excitment' includes high winds,large rainfall totals,followed by squalls,all capable of producing thunder,hail,wild wind gusts,tornado spotting?......if all of that doesnt float your boat in anyway fair enough,but i disagree with your assertion that this "common crap" is of no interest to anyone Edited January 28, 2014 by sunnijim

[Summer Sun]

12z precipitation charts from GFS show little change out to the 13th especially in the flood hit parts of the south west

 

[Weather-history]

Hi RicIts a sentiment I have posted before and what I used to stand by and it still holds a lot of form, but something which is not infallible as last winter showed with the incredibly snowy and cold Spring with blizzards in places. Generally though I have felt that if we've had a mild Dec and Jan and we have no cold blocking in place or advancing by end of Jan we won't see any in the 'winter' months.BFTP

I'm glad you added that last caveat because there are examples of mild Decembers and Januaries being followed by colder Februaries.Such as 1872-3, 1905-06, 1929-30, 1931-32, 1982-83, 1993-94. There have been winters such as 1882-83, 1936-37 having notably wintry Marches after mild Januaries and Februaries.The best hope for snow lovers I can give if you want to see at least a notable wintry spell before the end of the season is something like winter 1936-37 which was a very wet winter, a bit like this current one. That had a Scandi block at the end of that January which brought a brief wintry blast before the Atlantic returned. Edited January 28, 2014 by Weather-history

[shaky]

0 degree line much further west at 72 hours compared to ukmo!!!!think it will make a difference to maybe some snow before the rain follows through!!

[Jason M]

No no no no no no no no!!! I won't have it!!I may not understand the ins and outs of strat forecasting, SSTs, MJOs, GWOs and the like. But I do spend a stupid amount of time looking at weather charts, both current and historic.I think a few people are forgetting some principles and some common sense ideas!1. Thinking that the UK weather pattern will stay identical for several weeks is very unlikely to be true. You hardly ever get through three weeks without some sort of change, it's so so rare for that to happen! It may not be rare for the PV to keep sending us lows all winter, but the jet will move this way a little, blocking will move that way a little, a little more amplification will get into the flow, so that 9 times out of 10 you will not see exactly the same pattern three weeks later. For example, just at the beginning of this month - all the major models were suggesting no end to the pattern we were in - then a tiny area of heights squeezed up to Iceland between a couple of lows and nearly, nearly sent the whole pattern south. So it is reasonable to expect some change to the pattern, and no-one really knows if that change will allow a period of cold air to come south.2. The output of long-range weather models is just not trustworthy enough. Time after time I see them want to continue with the weather type they already have e.g. early last March, the ECM 32dayer was forecasting south-westerlies all month - wow that was wrong! and even in December 2010, I remember in mid-December the models favouring a continuation of the cold pattern in the long-term, but it got swept away shortly after Christmas. So it is absolutely fruitless to call an end to snowy chances this winter based on a couple of ECM 32s.3. History tells us that the chances of snow cover in most of the UK this winter is still better than 50/50. A completely snowless winter, at least north of say Birmingham, is extremely rare. Whenever making a forecast, it makes sense to balance out what the models are saying with what history says. And history suggests that even if you can't see a cold spell coming on the charts, there will be a cold spell even if just for a couple of days, simply because it would be unusual for there not to be! Not saying it's impossible that we won't have snow in the UK again after this Friday (and it's so hard to get snow in southern counties that of course the chances of a snowless winter are higher here), but if I were a betting man I would always veer on the side of what is normal rather than what is exceptional. And since we still have at least 8 weeks left where snow is able to fall and settle without extreme synoptics, I still think "normal" would be to expect snow to be on your garden at some point before spring is sprung.

. Erm, wasn't that the point I was making :-)