Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[vladthemert]

Nothing to be overly concerned about, Vlad. Will no doubt bring about an increase in swells but nothing exceptional at this stage.

 

thanks for the info nice to hear.

[Summer Sun]

ECM continues to show easterly winds developing before swinging round to a south easterly

 

 

Although an easterly is likely temperatures will never be far away from average

Edited March 23, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Joe Levy]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=188&y=175 

 

Having been away from here for about a month on account of a desire to take advantage of the unusually good weather and also an excessive amount of essays, I now come back to find, to my surprise, an easterly, all be it a very undramatic one at that. Either way, the continuation of relatively dry weather is very welcome, and the ensembles seem to show continued low totals. If I have missed anything major in all this, please do correct me/fill me in on the details!

[Cloud 10]

 - longer term? We can but only speculate

 

I like the way tonight's ECM is speculating about the longer term. 

 

[Milhouse]

GFS 12z showing some quite springlike conditions for a time as winds turn more southeasterly.

 

Decent support from the ensemble mean for warmer air to push northwards

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

It looks like the high should hang on till the end of the month

 

 

The high then moves north and leaves the UK with a north south split cold in Scotland warm in the south

 

[Summer Sun]

Continued signs that the 850's will trend above average from the 28th / 29th

 

 

March 26th to April 2nd sees little change in the air pressure for London

 

 

Pressure is highest in Scotland

 

[Purga]

Where were you in January?

 

Not really cold though

 

Last March was more on the money for actual cold

 

v

Uppers looking pretty warm but with a muted unsettled  signal.

Edited March 23, 2014 by Purga

[Winter Cold]

According to the GFS that is.... ECM on the other hand has shown a very cold pool to the North East getting closer and closer for the last 3 runs.......... lets hope ECM is right, a nice beast in April can still mean snow for many.....

 

Edited March 23, 2014 by Winter Cold

[ANYWEATHER]

To be honest, I don't think the models have any scope past this week with there outlook, the models just a few days ago showed much milder conditions this coming week, but in reality its much colder for all during this week! Personally, I think we are in for a cold late March early April, just going by past experience...  

[Summer Sun]

[Cloud 10]

Quite a change in the NOAA 8-14 dayer this evening compared to yesterday's with some suggestion

of Greenland heights.

 

yetserday.. today..

 

These charts are automated at weekends so it will be interesting to see tomorrow's

which will have forecaster input.

 

 

Solid support from the ECM ensembles for the 12z op run.

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looking like some continental warmth may drift up, despite a full on Greeny high being forecast. The cut off low near the azores becomes more of an influence to us and looks to nudge some lovely warm air up from The Mediterranean, France and Holland/Belgium. Just shows you what a difference some other factors can produce. Just because we have a Greenland High, it will not necessarily always mean cooler/colder conditions.

[damianslaw]

ECM remains bullish with its signal for retrogression of scandi heights to Greenland with a significant cold pool to the NE ready to attack.

 

GFS continues to throw up different scenario, backing away from the westerly it was showing on 6Z and instead shows a southeasterly thanks to a cut off low becoming unstuck to the SW but importantly also shows heights developing to the NW - it would be easy for a cold NE blast to develop quickly as low pressure is forced to sink SE into Europe.

 

The Jetstream is forecast to take a very southerly course, any southeasterly flow come next weekend will likely be a short affair as heights become very low over southern Europe.

 

So 2 scenarios - neither of which bring in the atlantic. The GFS going for a southeasterly before we see a blast of air from the NE. ECM misses out the southeasterly and goes for the N/NE airstream more swiftly.

 

This will be the third March in a row where the atlantic has had to take a back seat during the latter part of the month. In 2012 we had anomalous warmth thanks to high pressure overhead. Last year we had a full on bitter easterly. This year it looks like a much less cold easterly and very likely followed by a colder NE flow.

[Summer Sun]

Its very much take your pick between GFS and ECM tonight

 

GFS brings some warm temperatures back with 17c to 19c in the south possibly 20c in some spots

 

 

Then we have ECM which takes the cooler route, anyone's guess which will be right plenty to be resolved over the coming days

Edited March 23, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Geordiesnow]

I think the main message is that winds from the NE'lyEasterly direction will be a feature of the weather from midweek onwards with perhaps Wednesday being the best bet for bright convective weather before turning duller with weather fronts coming into the mix. Uppers don't look particularly cold but nevertheless temps are likely to be a touch below average with the highest of the temps and any sunshine for sheltered western parts. I

 

Although we are into Spring, it would be nice if we did see a full retrogression and a northerly blast to follow but thats a long way off and you just know with the way the winter season has gone that we will get a half hearted retrogression and the result is modest weather conditions rather than something interesting. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Looking like some continental warmth may drift up, despite a full on Greeny high being forecast. The cut off low near the azores becomes more of an influence to us and looks to nudge some lovely warm air up from The Mediterranean, France and Holland/Belgium. Just shows you what a difference some other factors can produce. Just because we have a Greenland High, it will not necessarily always mean cooler/colder conditions.

The GFS seems keen on keeping a ridge over the Italy area which is also pushing north west towards Greenland, this could be a problem for cold lovers if this remains as it holds the low near the Azores and the end game is heights splitting and the low over the Azores and the Scandi trough linking up and warm and wet conditions developing as warm and cold air get squeezed towards each other near the UK.

GFS and ECM ens show a real difference, one showing cold and the other is warm.

[johnholmes]

Quite a change in the NOAA 8-14 dayer this evening compared to yesterday's with some suggestion

of Greenland heights.

 

yetserday..814hghts.20140322.fcst.gif today..814day.03.gif

 

These charts are automated at weekends so it will be interesting to see tomorrow's

which will have forecaster input.

 

 

Solid support from the ECM ensembles for the 12z op run.

 

EDH1-240.GIF

 

 

It makes little if any difference in my view having watched them closely over about 4 maybe 5 years. About 3 years ago I did e mail NOAA to ask and they tended to dismiss the idea that there is any difference between what the model shows and any human input, I forget the figure they quoted but it was either 10% of cases or even less where intervention was thought necessary. Can't find the damned exchange now.

 

As to the difference you suggest, not that much difference really. The key thing for those hoping for cold is that the 8-14 is beginning to show a similar idea to what the 6-10 and EC-GFS versions have over the past 3 days. That is in terms of very slight ridging NW of the UK. They also show a fairly high =ve anomaly for that period (6-10 days), so perhaps showing in 4-5 days on actual charts. (keep an eye on the Fax charts as that time arrives).Of course the 6-10 is much more vigorous in this aspect. A normal difference between the 6-10 and 8-14 outputs.

[Frosty.]

Met office update today is going for a warm up from the south during early april as per the much maligned GFS with the rather cool Easterly flow eventually becomes SE'ly with much warmer air from southern europe drifting north westwards into the uk, perhaps an early spanish plume with temperatures soaring into the 70's F..In the meantime, apart from tuesday it's the further north by north west which will have the driest and sunniest weather as high pressure blocking strengthens to the north and north east. The further south by south east will have relatively lower pressure with shallow trough influence bringing a mix of sunshine and showers with longer outbreaks of rain at times along with a brisk and chilly East to NE'ly flow off the cold north sea..but warmer later.

[Polar Maritime]

Some fantastic charts that continue for Northern blocking over Iceland/Greenland at the turn of the month from all the runs. Very interesting over the coming week to see how this evolves. 

 

Edited March 24, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Summer Sun]

After a chilly week GFS continues to show some warmer temperatures returning by the weekend though how much if any sunshine would be around is anyone's guess at this range

 

 

GFS 00z ensembles continuing to show above average 850's from the 28th / 29th but starting to head closer to normal and maybe even a touch below at times in Scotland from April 4th

 

Edited March 24, 2014 by Summer Sun

[simshady]

After a chilly week GFS continues to show some warmer temperatures returning by the weekend though how much if any sunshine would be around is anyone's guess at this range

 

 

GFS 00z ensembles continuing to show above average 850's from the 28th / 29th

 

 

They also look like they could be trending back down again to something a little cooler in April.

[gottolovethisweather]

They also look like they could be trending back down again to something a little cooler in April.

 

Yes agreed, whilst Polar Maritime and Summer Sun are both looking at slightly different model outputs the uncertainty moving forward is highlighted by their individual analyses and the timescales involved. This week will be a chilly one with average Temperatures at best if truth be told, plenty of opportunities for Frost by night where skies clear. Come the end of March, i.e. by next weekend, it looks like a brief period of warmth could develop, more especially across the Southeastern part of the UK. At the eight to ten day range, this is where model consensus differs and anything could truly happen, we might end up with a traditional start to April with interludes of polar airstreams bringing in wintry type showers but equally, we might not. By mid week, things should become clearer as to how April is looking, at least the first week of it, for example.

Edited March 24, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[MR EXTREMES]

So we have I hlb forecasted by the models with heat from the se,but in all honesty the possibility is knife edge either mild or alot colder I punt for a cold easter.

And if it goes towards cold it could well be really cold as there's some record cold bottled up.

[Summer Sun]

After a chilly week it looks like temperatures should begin to rise during the weekend with ECM also showing the 850's recovering for most

 

 

Right at the end of ECM's run we see some colder 850's moving in from the NE

 

 

So the last few days of this month and the first few of April could see a return to warmer temperatures before a return to something colder hopefully things will start and become clearer towards the latter half of this week for early April

Edited March 24, 2014 by Summer Sun