Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[damianslaw]

ECM remains bullish with its projected colder pattern as we head into April with heights retrogressing to Greenland and a deep scandi trough forming just waiting to invade the UK.

 

GFS continues to play around with scenarios - a few days back it too on one of its runs showed a deep seated northerly. Quite often GFS picks up the correct development long term i.e 2 week range only to drop it within the medium-longer range i.e around the 240 hr mark, but then reverts back to what it was showing about a week before at the medium timeframe i.e. 144-168 hrs.

 

Based on the above if the GFS continues to show the atlantic moving in in 3 days time for early April and the ECM continues to show the Greenland height scenario, I would favour GFS as it rarely gets it wrong when it comes to Greenland highs in the reliable timeframe. With this in mind I wouldn't bank GFS just yet.. plenty of time for it to firm up on a northerly airstream.

[Purga]

The weather's havin' a laugh!

 

the GFS 12z ENS don't tell the whole story though

 

A pretty chilly easterly in train typically as below

 

Not too wet at least.

[draztik]

brief update regarding updated EC32. Spring on hold. EC temp anomaly has the UK and much of western Europe below average throughout Apr- Looking at the MSL mean, things look fairly unsettled. Troughing to our NW, becomes more apparent mid April onwards - before then, heights building over Greenland with lower heights to our NE & SW.. This is in line with how the JMA ensembles saw April going in it's Friday update, in terms of below average temps into Apr.

Edited March 24, 2014 by draztik

[andymusic]

a little wintry offering for this thursday maybe

 

 

 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z op run is looking rather milder this morning, especially compared to last night at T+240 hour....but quite frankly, who cares? it's almost april now and spring warmth would be nice.I mean, we are hardly likely to have a severe siberian icy blast in april are we.

Edited March 25, 2014 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the ECM this morning backs away from anything really cold

 

GFS

 

GEM

 

A more mild south easterly seems to be the offering here

GFS ens similar

Looks too progressive in a breakdown from the west though.

Given the output I will say that the chances of the cold air and a proper trough developing over Scandinavia is becoming increasingly unlikely, ore likely we will have heights near that region with a weak euro-ridge extending to the north of the UK holding the Atlantic systems to our west/south west for the time being. 

[ANYWEATHER]

It looks like the models have the uk in "no mans land "into next week, Nothing to cold or to warm, although the next few days especially for southern Britain will see a fair wind chill,its after this week things Looks very messy tbh, with slow moving troublesome fronts. Yuk, is the outlook, with nothing very interesting it seems......although deeper down the line in the  ten day and beyond we may see some convective weather on offer

Edited March 25, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[Timmytour]

 

Well the ECM this morning backs away from anything really cold

If you could sum up this winter in a phrase.........

[Frosty.]

Well, the clocks spring forward this weekend and I think we should all be looking forward instead of moaning about what could have been, winter was a bad joke, let's look forward to a warm fine spring and hot summer with spanish plums.

[Paul]

Well, the clocks spring forward this weekend and I think we should all be looking forward instead of moaning about what could have been, winter was a bad joke, let's look forward to a warm fine spring and hot summer with spanish plums.

 

I don't have time to move posts about right now, but this is not model related - please post this sort of thing in to the model banter thread and keep this thread to actually discussing the models. 

[Cloud 10]

The overnight ECM operational run looks out of kilter with the ensemble mean with its atlantic profile in the later stages of the run,especially when looking at the anomalies.

 

op.run..  ens.mean...

 

 

Hopefully the GEM has it nailed at day 10. 

 

[Frosty.]

Let's hope the Ecm is better at predicting warm weather than it is cold, these charts look very nice for early april with a plume of warmth extending northwards across the uk...what a flip in the space of 12 hours.

Edited March 25, 2014 by Frosty.

[draztik]

days 10 thru 15 continue to trend much cooler from the ext ecm ens. Gfs/Gem less bullish on this level of colder weather. So until we see some consistency, snowkings analysis should be noted.

[Summer Sun]

GFS continues to show temperatures rising from the SE this weekend, I still wouldn't rule-out somewhere hitting 20c

 

 

20c on Tuesday given how GFS can under do temps at times somewhere around 22c seems possible if we had some lengthy sunshine

 

 

ECM Op now also showing milder / warmer air arriving as the easterly disappears from the 00z run and is replaced by a warmer south easterly

 

 

EDIT

 

06z brings the higher temperatures further west & north west

 

Edited March 25, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z continues to show warmer temperatures returning from Saturday as winds shift round to a south easterly initially and then a southerly

 

 

8 day 2m temperature anomaly shows the UK returning to above average temperatures

 

Edited March 25, 2014 by Summer Sun

[johnholmes]

Let's hope the Ecm is better at predicting warm weather than it is cold, these charts look very nice for early april with a plume of warmth extending northwards across the uk...what a flip in the space of 12 hours.

 

beware of flips, either way, look for consistency?

[Polar Maritime]

Yes, I expect lot's of flip/flopping over the coming days from the models as expected when blocking/pattern change is shown in the outputs, Whatever the outcome.. i can only presume we will see many wild swings.

Edited March 25, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[gottolovethisweather]

Whilst the here and now is a largely dull picture with rain in places for a lot of us, there is some wintriness about in the short-term, as alluded to below in Jo's blog and on certain media forecasts.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79830-midweek-easterly-thanks-to-scandi-high-snow/

 

Slightly longer-term, come the weekend and beyond the Temperatures look set to rise and may potentially rise to rather warm levels for those in Central and Eastern parts come the early to middle part of next week, where the sun shows itself. The emphasis based around this aspect needs to be firmed up over the next couple of days as actual weather conditions at the surface are less certain, despite the warmth. I still say it bodes well for what could develop into a generally dry and warm Spring, however in this latter regard I am truly speculating as to what could happen in the long run.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79434-model-output-discussion-13th-feb-onwards/?p=2947890

 

Maybe, maybe not? See my last sentence in the posting above from five days ago, proving a lot of uncertainty still exists.

 

There are several ideas based around the anticipated weather for April and hopefully in a few days time a clearer picture will develop in the models for those of us planning time outside on specific days on the run up to Easter for example, albeit a long way ahead yet. Here's two cherry picked posts from yesterday from our seasoned model watchers Phil NW and John Holmes by way of an examples.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79434-model-output-discussion-13th-feb-onwards/?p=2949463 and http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79434-model-output-discussion-13th-feb-onwards/?p=2949277

 

My early viewpoint for April is that there will be more usable weather for parts up North and West, albeit chilly on occasions, with perhaps more potent showery outbreaks further South and East as the seasonal shifts start becoming more apparent. At this rate, hopefully there is something for all weather enthusiasts to treasure over the coming weeks.

Edited March 25, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[knocker]

Well the ECMWF 500mb five day mean anomaly is fairly consistent out to the 9th of April. High positive anomalies to the north of the UK with negative to the SW but the former becomes dominant. Towards the end of the period this weakens slightly but slips a little south so still dominant over the UK. The 850mb five day temp anomaly gets quite positive at the end of the month so looking for some quite warm weather all in all after this cooler spell. That's the theory anyway.

[Frosty.]

Well we finally got our Easterly Beast after 16 weeks of waiting and wondering but it's turned into a cute little kitten now..The GEFS 06z mean shows the weather warming up considerably from the south by the weekend as winds from southern europe pump northwards into the uk but at the same time, pressure will be leaking away as a large low to the southwest of the uk becomes the main feature with bands of heavy showers pushing northeastwards across the uk with other showers forming inland but with warm sunny spells too, relatively higher pressure hanging on across the far northeast of the BI with the driest if not the sunniest weather by then.

Edited March 25, 2014 by Frosty.

[gottolovethisweather]

Well we finally got our Easterly Beast after 16 weeks of waiting and wondering but it's turned into a cute little kitten now..The GEFS 06z mean shows the weather warming up considerably from the south by the weekend as winds from southern europe pump northwards into the uk but at the same time, pressure will be leaking away as a large low to the southwest of the uk becomes the main feature with bands of heavy showers pushing northeastwards across the uk with other showers forming inland but with warm sunny spells too, relatively higher pressure hanging on across the far northeast of the BI with the driest if not the sunniest weather by then.

 

Hi Frosty and others,

 

I'm certainly not encouraging folk to go overboard but don't ignore Wednesday night into Thursday morning's period for snowfall potential, as aforementioned above. Even the latest UKMO forecast during this crucial timeframe suggests Temperatures of 2c with rain by way of precipitation, wouldn't take much of a shift in wet bulb Temps etc. Anyway, whatever happens, it is what it is and it has been desperate chase for anything remotely wintry like for us coldies so I'm not bothered either way now as to what occurs.

Edited March 25, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Polar Maritime]

With you on that Gotto, especially the last sentence. .

[Summer Sun]

As you were from GFS with temperatures rising from Saturday

 

 

It could be quite cloudy at times though where the cloud does break it will certainly feel warm given the rising temperatures

 

[Frosty.]

Hi Frosty and others,

 

I'm certainly not encouraging folk to go overboard but don't ignore Wednesday night into Thursday morning's period for snowfall potential, as aforementioned above. Even the latest UKMO forecast during this crucial timeframe suggests Temperatures of 2c with rain by way of precipitation, wouldn't take much of a shift in wet bulb Temps etc. Anyway, whatever happens, it is what it is and it has been desperate chase for anything remotely wintry like for us coldies so I'm not bothered either way now as to what occurs.

Agreed, there is a risk of wintry ppn tomorrow, chiefly on hills in the south and east but thereafter it looks progressively warmer from the south although not particularly settled, there will be rain and showers, more especially across southwestern parts of the uk, the driest weather across the far northeast.

Edited March 25, 2014 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z continues to show 2m temperatures going above normal to at least April 2nd