Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS has been hinting an Easterly of sorts for some days now out in the run. ECMWF also has the same idea for a cool Easterly for the turn of the Month, UKMET is also showing the same general theme.

 

Edited March 21, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[johnholmes]

the 6-10 NOAA last evening below, and 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

and the EC-GFS version this morning, similar to last issue re +ve areas and ridging shown at 500mb below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

the idea of a cut off upper low is much more in eveidence this morning, while the NOAA 6-10 last evevning was the first time it showed the model has shown quite the pattern it is showing.

For myself I would want consistency for 3 outputs on all 3 before I believe it totally. However there does seem some changing in the upper air pattern taking place, so watch this space perhaps?

[Summer Sun]

UKMO delaying a pressure rise to Thursday now

 

 

ECM still going for Wednesday however with an easterly feed possible some eastern parts could be stuck with a lot of cloud of the north sea and if and where any cloud does persist temperatures would struggle

 

[picog]

Ensembles are looking a bit wet, especially the further north you are.

[mike Meehan]

That really hot summer was 1976. We BBQ'd our evening meal after work every night for months.

Not the 26th August 1976 - the heavens opened and it absolutely pee'd down - this was just after the appointment of the most effective minister ever - 'The Minister of Droughts'

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

That really hot summer was 1976. We BBQ'd our evening meal after work every night for months.

I'm so jealous I never got to witness it! My parents and Grandparents always tell me about how scorching it was! 

But I also got told the 1975 summer was a cracker and peculiar, i.e. the snow on 2nd `june, and then 27-28c very shortly afterwards, and many 30+c days that summer too.

[knocker]

A somewhat fluid situation but for the moment I think the sun block can stay in the drawer.

 

 

[knocker]

Well the GFS 12z has changed a bit. Tomorrow looks bleak as already been blogged by Paul. Then a weak ridge and southerly's in the west with a depression situated off south west Ireland.. Then a split with the high to the SW bring a NW flow with temps a bit higher and a low over Scandinavia bringing light winds from the east and much cooler air.

Edited March 21, 2014 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

ECM continues to show pressure rising from mid week for northern bringing with it easterly winds, in the south low pressure is more of a feature so rain is possible, NW Scotland could fair best for sunshine amounts depending on how much cloud comes in off the north sea

 

 

Friday sees the high starting to settle things down for more but again easterly winds could bring cloud into eastern parts especially those close to the coast

 

 

As the high starts to build out east winds start to veer to a south easterly as a result the 850's slowly rise so in any sunshine it would feel quite pleasant

 

Edited March 21, 2014 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

A quick look at three models until the end of week. A pretty fair agreement on the whole with a fairly quiet week after this weekend. Can't say more without a closer look and a double espresso is beckoning. Or two even.

 

[Polar Maritime]

GFS is showing a weak ridge of High Pressure next week.

 

 

While ECMWF and UKMET keeps an Easterly flow a little longer, both show High Pressure of sorts towards the end of the runs.

 

 

GFS is still maintaining a classic cool/cold and disturbed start to April. With blocking plentiful, its just a shame it's a Month late, bloody typical...! 

 

Edited March 22, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Summer Sun]

ECM still showing an easterly flow for a time next week with some rain likely in the south at times we could also see cloud affecting some eastern parts as we often do when easterly winds arrive before we get a more organized area of high pressure over the country by day 9

 

 

By day 8 winds shift to a more south easterly direction allowing the 850's to start and rise

 

 

Day 9 and 10 sees the high over the UK turning things a little warmer again with cloud likely to become less of an issue

 

 

UKMO also showing high pressure building later next week

 

[ANYWEATHER]

From a brief look at the models, shows a fairly cold spell of weather in the near future, colder synoptics than we saw in our dreadfully mild ,stormy winter. Ironic that is now spring and now winter wants to start!!!  

[Cloud 10]

I wonder if what we are seeing in the model output at the moment is tied in with a 

late SSW?

 

Zonal winds are forecast to be reversed right through the stratosphere by days 7-8..

 

 

 

A very interesting GFS 06z run this morning with height rises over Scandinavia which

retrogress to our north-west by 240 hrs which then allows a stonking Northerly.

 

 

 

Seems to tick quite a few of the SSW boxes.

[Summer Sun]

Next week will start with some mixed temperatures for the UK

 

Monday in England and wales should see highs around 9c to 11c

 

 

Tuesday sees some pretty big differences, the far south hits double figure, we than have an area from the SE across to Wales where temperatures struggle ranging from 4c to 6c, then further north we get to double figures again in some parts

 

 

Wednesday is a cooler day for most

 

 

Thursday sees temperatures starting to rise for England and Wales with temperatures widely 10c to 12c with 14c possible in one or two spots in the south

 

 

Friday again sees temperatures widely in double figures though the SE and East Anglia could see temperatures staying in single figures

 

 

Saturday is another cooler day with temperatures widely in single figures though west wales and SW England could manage to get into double figures

 

 

With high pressure looking likely to build later next week temperatures overnight could fall close to or below freezing increasing the frost risk

 

 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO continuing to build pressure later next week, though with an easterly feed cloud could be a problem for some eastern parts

 

Edited March 22, 2014 by Summer Sun

[mpkio2]

I wonder if what we are seeing in the model output at the moment is tied in with a 

late SSW?

 

Zonal winds are forecast to be reversed right through the stratosphere by days 7-8..

 

ecmwf10f168.gifecmwfzm_u_f192.gif

 

 

A very interesting GFS 06z run this morning with height rises over Scandinavia which

retrogress to our north-west by 240 hrs which then allows a stonking Northerly.

 

gfsnh-0-120.pnggfsnh-0-240.png

 

 

Seems to tick quite a few of the SSW boxes.

I really don't know how to feel about this. Just as we exit Winter and enter Spring, the weather wants to turn colder at the end of March/begin of April, with almost all models showing an easterly os some sorts and some northerlies. In a whole month too late for it to be really cold, like winter.

 

For IMBY's perspective, even if the models arn't taking us "down the garden path" again, I don;t think it will affect me much down in London. Move onto next Winter I say. I'm just too depressed for this!

 

~mpkio2~

 

P.S. Move this post mods to the right forum if it sounds like I'm moaning.

[mike Meehan]

I really don't know how to feel about this. Just as we exit Winter and enter Spring, the weather wants to turn colder at the end of March/begin of April, with almost all models showing an easterly os some sorts and some northerlies. In a whole month too late for it to be really cold, like winter.

 

For IMBY's perspective, even if the models arn't taking us "down the garden path" again, I don;t think it will affect me much down in London. Move onto next Winter I say. I'm just too depressed for this!

 

~mpkio2~

 

P.S. Move this post mods to the right forum if it sounds like I'm moaning.

It is quite usual to get cold snaps at this time of year.

[Summer Sun]

Continued signs that easterly winds will arrive later next week, though it won't be anywhere near as cold as it would be in winter

 

 

Towards next weekend we have signals again that winds will start to veer to a south easterly direction so the 850's should slowly start to rise in the south initially before spreading further north by Sunday

 

Edited March 22, 2014 by Summer Sun

[The PIT]

LOL Deep FI ECM has the beast from the east sneaking in. Just look at those cold uppers at t240.

Edited March 22, 2014 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

LOL Deep FI ECM has the beast from the east sneaking in. Just look at those cold uppers at t240.

 

Plenty of Northern blocking on show as well which is something we didn't see in winter

 

[keithlucky]

I wonder if what we are seeing in the model output at the moment is tied in with a 

late SSW?

 

Zonal winds are forecast to be reversed right through the stratosphere by days 7-8..

 

ecmwf10f168.gifecmwfzm_u_f192.gif

 

 

A very interesting GFS 06z run this morning with height rises over Scandinavia which

retrogress to our north-west by 240 hrs which then allows a stonking Northerly.

 

gfsnh-0-120.pnggfsnh-0-240.png

 

 

Seems to tick quite a few of the SSW boxes.

Yes winter is on LOL

[ANYWEATHER]

Its going to feel cold next week ,even raw, with extensive cloud and some patchy rain. The scandi high, pulls some cold air across the uk , not deep cold, but models do hint of pockets of cold air from time to time so perhaps some sleet and snow on higher ground. So the Easterly wind appears after being vacant for the winter, one thing for sure ,next week will feel colder than it has done all winter....Spring ,well its definitely in the cue.....But not at the front!  

Edited March 22, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[Summer Sun]

Tonight's ECM ensemble shows the 850's starting to recover later next week and into the following week to around average once more

 

[damianslaw]

Models all agree on an easterly as we move through next week thanks to heights building to the NE, it looks a cloudy damp sort of easterly, had we a cold pool over scandi then a wintry edge could have been in order, but instead we are just likely to see cloud. Sheltered western parts could do well temperature and sunshine wise.

 

Looking further ahead - more signs April will start off on a preety chilly note, with many signals suggesting heights retrogressing towards Greenland as we see a deep trough develop over Scandinavia. GFS which I rate best when it comes to height rises to our NW, is certainly very bullish today with this scenario. ECM less keen wanting to bring in a southeasterly, but it too shows the trough digging in over N Scandi which would aid heights shifting NW. As others have stated these kind of set ups are more likely in Spring than at any other time of year, indeed northerlies and easterlies often give the atlantic a run for its money by the time we hit April.

 

I was looking at the forecasts from early April 2000 which deliver lowland snow to many parts after a very mild snowless winter for many.