Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[Milhouse]

The remarkable run of above average temperatures looks set to continue with another fairly warm week to come. Low pressure to the west will be sending fronts across the country but also delivering some warmish air from a southerly direction. Temperatures peaking in the high teens around midweek on the GFS. Warm but unsettled best describes it.

[Summer Sun]

Does anyone know / have the verification charts which show how the models are performing? I'm sure I've saw them posted on here during the winter months

[IDO]

Does anyone know / have the verification charts which show how the models are performing? I'm sure I've saw them posted on here during the winter months

 

 

Hi

 

I use this one, may be others:

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Sincerely hope that the ECM is only having a bank holiday drinking session. No Greeny high please. That would be all we need on the run up to summer!

Edited April 18, 2014 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Winter Cold]

Typical, you wait for one ALL winter and then at the end of April, hey presto!!  Greenland high.......grrrrrrr

whats this 'WOW' May that Corbyn is on about? It cant snow in May can it?

 

[Summer Sun]

Typical, you wait for one ALL winter and then at the end of April, hey presto!!  Greenland high.......grrrrrrr

whats this 'WOW' May that Corbyn is on about? It cant snow in May can it?

 

 

Well it can and has snowed in June so its not out of the question though it doesn't last long

 

Got a line to the Piers Corbyn WOW May ?

 

EDIT found it still no idea what the WOW is for

Edited April 18, 2014 by Summer Sun

[simshady]

Typical, you wait for one ALL winter and then at the end of April, hey presto!!  Greenland high.......grrrrrrr

whats this 'WOW' May that Corbyn is on about? It cant snow in May can it?

 

 

Fingers crossed!

[Cloud 10]

 

 

EDIT found it still no idea what the WOW is for

 

Winter On Way?

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble certainly points to pressure rising over Greenland

 

[Cloud 10]

Cloud 10 have you got the MJO guide at all for april and may?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

 

http:////d321955.r.worldssl.net/forum//public/style_emoticons/default/smile.png

[Due South]

Typical, you wait for one ALL winter and then at the end of April, hey presto!!  Greenland high.......grrrrrrr

whats this 'WOW' May that Corbyn is on about? It cant snow in May can it?

 

The 'WOW' is for HEATWAVE second half of May. NOT SNOW.

[davehsug]

The 'WOW' is for HEATWAVE second half of May. NOT SNOW.

Greenie high for sure 'til August then!

[Winter Cold]

The 'WOW' is for HEATWAVE second half of May. NOT SNOW.

Fair enough, i wasnt sure, it was obviously one or the other

 

Models were pointing towards a cool start to May but ive also heard a few mutings of a hot summer coming so who knows. El Nino stuff etc

[davehsug]

CFS are going for a respectable summer at the moment.

If Corbyn predicts a heatwave, you'll excuse me for buying a thick coat!

[Cloud 10]

If Corbyn predicts a heatwave, you'll excuse me for buying a thick coat!

 

The 18z right on cue!http:////d321955.r.worldssl.net/forum//public/style_emoticons/default/laugh.png 

 

[Yarmy]

Second half of May? Sheesh, typical Corbyn. Something to do with the moon, no doubt.

Anyway, as the Canadian PV at last disappears we are seeing lots of charts with heights to our North varying in degree and position. Inevitably there will be a few cold'uns progged to come our way, but shorter term we are likely to see some rain IMBY which, astonishingly, would be welcome as my lawn is beginning to dry out.

Rain in April. WOW.

[davehsug]

Well, those of us of a thundery persuasion, can only hope that when May comes, the Northern blocking goes the way it's been going since last Autumn. Knowing our luck though......

[phil nw.]

A few speculative posts about the further outlook recently in here.

Let's keep to actual model outputs please all-otherwise the thread soon strays off topic.

 

Thanks.http:////d321955.r.worldssl.net/forum//public/style_emoticons/default/smile.png

[knocker]

The current ECM thinking from Weds through to the weekend.

 

The upper set up is essentially cold air dominating the Atlantic and Warm air and strong heights to the north and NE. An impasse one could say. This leaves the surface synoptic set up as below. The GFS upper air progression is very similar.

[Summer Sun]

Next week looks like a classic April week of sunshine and showers for many with temperatures ranging from 10 to 12c in Scotland to as high as 20c for the south in some longer brighter spells not everywhere will see especially Scotland

 

The Aberdeen ensemble shows a lengthy spell of very little rain coming up

 

 

The Manchester ensemble shows some rain around most days next week with some of the heaviest showers likely on Wednesday

 

 

The wettest day on the London ensemble is tomorrow the rest of the week looks like seeing sunshine and showers

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Nothing inspiring about todays model outputs within the next seven days. Looks like shallow areas of low pressure dominating the Uk,but I expect a fair amount of dry weather in some places, but on the other side of the coin, there is likely to be some heavy downpours too. Hard to predict for computer models as to precip, not a straightforward set-up by any means. Temperatures don't look too bad, in any sunshine, but I expect it will feel pretty chilly in the rain...//d321955.r.worldssl.net/forum//public/style_emoticons/default/wink.png It might be the North of Scotland that will see the best of the weather..//d321955.r.worldssl.net/forum//public/style_emoticons/default/wink.png

Edited April 19, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[IDO]

The London ENS showing the forecast unsettled spell coming up: 

 

Next week all models showing a finger of lower heights come in from the Atlantic but stalls as it tries to undercut the heights to the N/NE:

 

ECM:   So milder and drier the further east you are.

 

Both ECM & GFS then agree this cut off of lower heights will plant itself somewhere in Western Europe:

 

 GFS:  ECM: 

 

The ECM slightly closer to the UK, the GFS further south. This attracts further lower heights from the NE and the UK is affected by a slack trough by D10 (ECM more periphery):

 

ECM:   GFS: 

 

The GFS in outer FI brings us some colder uppers: 

 

But this looks to be the worse case scenario compared to its ensembles. 

 

So some fine tuning to come but the long wave pattern looking to have reasonable cross-model support and it will in my opinion feel a lot cooler than of late (from D6); no surprise as London has just had 21 days of highs above the monthly average!

Edited April 19, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Summer Sun]

For the vast majority of the UK this lengthy run of above normal 2m temperatures will continue for the next 8 days at least the only exception is parts of Devon and Cornwall

 

 

Normal 2m temps

 

 

Expected 2m temps

 

[Summer Sun]

GFS ensemble shows the high starting to drift over the UK by day 10 still some cool air with it but given the strong sunshine now it would be pleasant in any brighter spells

 

[049balt]

GFS ensemble shows the high starting to drift over the UK by day 10 still some cool air with it but given the strong sunshine now it would be pleasant in any brighter spells

 

 

GFS ensemble shows the high starting to drift over the UK by day 10 still some cool air with it but given the strong sunshine now it would be pleasant in any brighter spells

 

The dry trend continues.