Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[knocker]

The ECM ens paints a picture of unsettled weather. Certainly this week with the MSL anomaly not good at the weekend. Then after that the upper pattern is predominately colder air via the Atlantic so remaining unsettled.

[IDO]

Despite GFS temp anomaly charts suggesting last week was going to have an above average temp anomaly, the statistics suggest most of the UK (including the SE) were below average by -1 to -3c; with average (possibly +) mainly for the Midlands:

 

 

I suspect the coming week will be similar.

[Polar Maritime]

Hi there Im dreaming of... or anyone for that matter Could you give me the link to those noaa  temp anomaly charts?

 

Thanks in advance

Edited April 22, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Summer Sun]

Hi there Im dreaming of.. Could you give me the link to those noaa  temp anomaly charts?

 

Thanks in advance

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/europe.shtml - click Temperature Anomaly under weekly

[Polar Maritime]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/europe.shtml - click Temperature Anomaly under weekly

 

Thanks Gav 

[IDO]

ECM keen still to bring down a spell of cold uppers  for the end of the month:

 

Mean:  

 

The 500hPa Mean looking slightly more trough orientated at D10 than previous runs:  

 

Glasgow 2m average temps dipping from the weekend for about a six day period before returning to just below average:

 

 

Both main models coming into line with regard to the trough but GFS still less keen to bring down the cold uppers, including the 06z run. At T216 is the coolest the uppers get on the latest run?

 

 

ECM do tend to over do the cold uppers so unsure which way it will go yet.

Edited April 22, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[joggs]

Well,decent synoptics if you like abit of everthing and/or if it were mid jan and looking for cold

Anyway ecm looking like pulling in cooler uppers eventually,so all in all,still to play for re,nothing set in stone.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO still going a different route to the others for the start of next week, probably more in the way of sunshine and showers rather than anything prolonged

 

 

UKMO 00z run to compare the 2

 

Edited April 22, 2014 by Summer Sun

[johnholmes]

Despite GFS temp anomaly charts suggesting last week was going to have an above average temp anomaly, the statistics suggest most of the UK (including the SE) were below average by -1 to -3c; with average (possibly +) mainly for the Midlands:

 

http:////d321955.r.worldssl.net/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifScreenshot_22_04_2014_11_00.png

 

I suspect the coming week will be similar.

 

 

The 500mb anomaly charts valid through the period shown, did the opposite if you interpreted them correctly, building heights over the country suggesting coolish/cold nights but above average daytime values so my assessment was not cold and possibly above average mean temperatures, very dependent on cloud cover through any 24 hour period.

[Gael_Force]

Despite GFS temp anomaly charts suggesting last week was going to have an above average temp anomaly, the statistics suggest most of the UK (including the SE) were below average by -1 to -3c; with average (possibly +) mainly for the Midlands:

 

http:////d321955.r.worldssl.net/forum/public/style_images/master/attachicon.gifScreenshot_22_04_2014_11_00.png

 

I suspect the coming week will be similar.

 

When I clicked on the link Gavin provided, I see a positive temp anomaly on the NOAA map - same dates as your chart - any idea why this might be?

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM continuing unsettled tonight for next week with temperature slowly falling as the week progresses the low pressure is deeper this evening that it was on the 00z run for the 2nd half of next week

 

Edited April 22, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

No running away from it, the 2nd half of the ECM run is very very poor with low pressure parked over the UK. Cool and wet, though you would hope that a lot of the rain would come from showers rather than longer spells of rain.

This stalling low is a common feature on the model output, a correction west or east could give big differences. A correction east would bring cold conditions with showers in the east whilst a correction west could bring very warm southerlies and rain mostly in the west apart from some potential stormy imports.

All to play for, looks like the northern hemisphere is about to enter summer mode with the polar low heights being blown into oblivion.

[IDO]

When I clicked on the link Gavin provided, I see a positive temp anomaly on the NOAA map - same dates as your chart - any idea why this might be?

 

 

 

Yes it seemed strange at the time as Scotland has been very mild the last week. Looks like they have now updated the page and transposed their original anomalies, someone at NOAA misread the positive/negative? The chart is exactly the same except they have swapped the anomalies (colours) from their earlier post. I double checked by looking at Truro and they had a positive av temp anomaly last week so that ties up with the revised NOAA data. 

 

The main difference between the ECM and GFS, now that they have agreed on the trough was the upper temps. ECM moved closer to the GFS on the 12z by pushing the 850s cold flow further west.

 

Yesterdays 12z at 216:   Today at 192: 

 

GFS is further west still but I expect to see subsequent ECM runs edge towards GFS (they have been steadfast with the cold uppers heading into the Atlantic):

 

 

The GEFS in FI (T300+) have about 50/50 the UK in a trough or under HP (mid latitude, Scandi, Icelandic, GH, all in the mix). So uncertainty has now moved towards about D12.

[Summer Sun]

Next week is looking cooler at this stage as CS has said its all to play for depending on where the low positions its-self beyond next week we could start and see things warming up as the first full week progress with the low starting to back west we see a more southerly flow thats not to say it would be dry and wall to wall sunshine it could be a humid feel in places with some thundery rain.

 

A lot to be resolved yet but next week is going to be unsettled its just a case of how much will it take UKMO's route of smaller troughs around the UK would be the better one as it would probably result in more sunshine and showers rather than prolonged rain and strong winds

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble has the low no lower than 1000mb next week with a hint of pressure rising slightly to the south later in the week

 

[knocker]

The ECM ens upper air still much the same with colder dominating into the near future and still a lousy weekend. A hint on the GFS of a more stable upper pattern into lulu land.

Edited April 22, 2014 by knocker

[vladthemert]

GEM suggesting the polar vortex will displace to slightly a more westely with the deep lows.  Long way off all could change

 

[reef]

Very unlikely to verify of course, but GFS 18z is awesome if you're a fan of Spring switch arounds and large temperature swings:

 

Wintry showers and snow in the north:

 

 

Six days later we have a brief plume with temperatures in the mid-high 20s possible in the south-east:

 

 

A few days later and another blast of polar air and temperatures down to single figures during the day and night frosts:

 

 

Not everyone's cup of tea, but it would certainly be an interesting spell of weather if it came to fruition.

[Geordiesnow]

Certainly a more unsettled outlook into the weekend and next week could look more the cool and wet type rather than the more milder and not especially wet type we got at the moment, its very hard to pin detail down on the output but its fair to say that whether its slack or something a bit more organised, low pressure is here to stay and the outlook does look rather cloudy it has to be said.

 

The signal for blocking to strengthen even more does seem to reflect a more unsettled outlook for this weekend and into next week. 

[knocker]

With ref. to Reef's post above just a touch of whimsy.

Edited April 23, 2014 by knocker

[joggs]

The met office 6-15 day update said at the end that temperatures would trend upwards as we move into may.

That maybe but i was commenting on what the ecm especially was showing.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO still not going for any deep lows as we start next week so hopefully the rain would be lighter with some brighter intervals in-between

 

 

Saturday don't look too good at this stage

 

[knocker]

The GFS is still going for unsettled weather for the weekend and into next week with low pressure controlling the scene with temps becoming below average next week. The upper air shows cold air over the UK at the weekend and by Wednesday this has intensified over the north North Sea with a trough extending to the south west approaches translating on the surface to a low situated SW of Cornwall with the UK in a mainly easterly flow and below average temps.

 

The ECM ens is not dissimilar although the more intense upper cold air is displaced further east. At this stage the weather looks to remain unsettled with some negative anomaly temps although after that way out so completely unreliable at the moment the GFS has a strong build up of heights over the UK.

 

Edited April 23, 2014 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

After a wet weekend the GFS London ensemble shows a dry start to next week before turning wetter during Wednesday and into Thursday highs initially around 15c but falling by mid week

 

 

The Manchester ensemble is much wetter and cooler earlier next week before turning less wet by Wednesday

 

 

Aberdeen's wettest periods looks to be from the 26th to 28th

 

[Summer Sun]

What a difference on the 06z from GFS with high pressure building as early as later next week just in time for the next bank holiday weekend

 

 

With winds shown to come in from the east again the best temperatures would probably be found in the west I've had a look at cloud amounts and they don't look too bad to be honest for England and wales

 

Edited April 23, 2014 by Summer Sun