Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[Captain Shortwave]

So it looks like the return of the Scandi high as we enter the Easter period, the surface detail is rather unknown as low pressure could still be close enough to the south or become more dominate with rain pushing across all areas. 

ECM ens look to most settled 

The high looks to dominate and keep most areas dry.

 

GFS ens look to show a more pronounced area of low heights to the south which could bring rain at times.

[049balt]

Jet position on the 28 April, looks like blocked scenario.

Edited April 13, 2014 by 049balt

[Cloud 10]

Such mixed signals from the models over the last week, must be a nightmare for forecasters.. 

 

At least this coming week looks settled and pleasant, The turning point continues to be around or just after the Easter Weekend from the N/W, looking at both the GFS & ECM this morning. 

 

 

Yes PM,some wild output from the models this week.

 

The charts you posted above seem to suggest a split in the jetstream around next weekend,but 

how much "energy" will go under is the big question.

 

[bluearmy]

On the other hand.

 

beware ops/controls at that range knocks ..................

 

stick with the ens mean although the possibility of a cold low over the holiday weekend is definitely there.

[phil nw.]

Looking like a very pleasant lead up to Easter for much of the UK now, the models having done away with any midweek breakdown.

I like the look of the ECM ens mean keeping any approaching Atlantic trough at bay until after the BH weekend.

GFS  mean again more inclined to throw less settle conditions our way around Easter.

Edited April 13, 2014 by phil nw.

[knocker]

beware ops/controls at that range knocks ..................

 

stick with the ens mean although the possibility of a cold low over the holiday weekend is definitely there.

 

Will bear that in mind blue.

Edited April 13, 2014 by knocker

[damianslaw]

With the exception of Good Friday the Easter weekend doesn't look too bad on the ECM ensemble for many lets face it, it could be a lot worse

 

 

If we can't get a perfectly settled weekend I'd take sunshine and showers over a stormy weekend with gales and rain

 

 

'With the exception of Friday'? mmm Friday looks fine, slip of the tongue.. Indeed the uncertainty is Saturday onwards.. ECM keen to maintain heights to our east, but GFS is showing trough action to the SW influencing our weather as we move through the weekend.

 

I'm non- the wiser. April is always our most difficult month for forecasting.

[Summer Sun]

12z UKMO maintaining a very settled for the coming week cloud amounts will vary over day to day but in the sunny periods it will feel very pleasant though chilly at night with patchy frosts

 

 

How long the high can cling on during the Easter weekend remains to be seen but we should get 2 settled days at least

[049balt]

12z UKMO maintaining a very settled for the coming week cloud amounts will vary over day to day but in the sunny periods it will feel very pleasant though chilly at night with patchy frosts

 

 

How long the high can cling on during the Easter weekend remains to be seen but we should get 2 settled days at least

Recently the UKMO has been consistently predicting High pressure when others have been in fantasy land.

[knocker]

The GFS 500mb normalised anomaly for12z Monday.

 

Strong build up of heights to the NE of the UK. A ridge in the west Atlantic with a trough in between that is affecting the southern UK. Surface chart for same time has high pressure dominating mid Atlantic and NE of UK with a slack low pressure system over southern England. The north of England and Scotland under the influence of easterlies from the NE high. This set up is so delicately poised  that I'm sure it will be different by the end of the week. See what the ECM comes up with.

Edited April 13, 2014 by knocker

[Winter Cold]

UKMO and ECM look very alike at 120 and 144:

 

120:

 

144:

Edited April 13, 2014 by Winter Cold

[Summer Sun]

Think the UKMO 850's have got an error tonight at t144

 

UKMO

 

 

ECM

 

 

ECM and UKMO are almost identical with pressure and look at the difference between them on the 850's not just for the UK but most of Europe

Edited April 13, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

Well Friday and Saturday look pretty good with high pressure in charge.

 

The question is what about Sunday and Monday, all models want some cold pooling to push westwards from the trough over south east Europe which phases with low heights west of Portugal. This all moves north to affect the UK. Unusual evolution and one which could be currently played wrongly by the models. At the moment there looks to be showers or longer spells of rain pushing north during the second half of the bank holiday weekend. But my confidence in this will be pretty low until this movement of cold air is resolved as I wouldn't be surprised to see it watered down or vanish all together. This would mean the high over Scandinavia would have a greater influence on our weather throughout this period. Just a hunch more than anything else at the moment and models may be right.

 

We could very well be heading for another spell of slack south easterlies here.

Edited April 13, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks fine for most of us next week. but does look like pressure will fall during the latter of the week into Easter....   

[knocker]

Just comparing the ECM with the GFS described earlier and as they say the plot is still evolving. The former has the upper air pattern slightly different. The warmer air to the NE is compatible but the ECM has a far deeper mid Atlantic trough with the warmer air to the SW of that.

 

On the surface this translates to the high pressure being much the same as the GFS but the low pressure is to the NW of the UK leaving the latter in a very slight southerly flow, At the moment it seems to rest on if and where this cyclonic development occurs so all bets are off.

Edited April 13, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Sunday and Monday

 

As they say when the train breaks down-all change. Well perhaps not all. The GFS at 00z has a strngthening upper trough in mid Atlantic, touching the UK  with the warmer air still to the NE but weakening to the SW of the trough.

 

On the surface it has seriously developed a complex area of low pressure stretching from SE Greenland into northern Europe encompassing the UK en route. This is such a mobile situation it would be foolish to go further at the moment except some sort of cyclonic development does appear more likely.

 

Not a dissimilar picture with the ECM. Perhaps the high to the NE in closer proximity to the UK.  The same complex area of low pressure from Greenland over the UK and in fact over all Europe and Africa.

 

[Summer Sun]

Looking at UKMO good Friday to Easter Sunday looks very respectable by the UK's standards for a BH weekend, it could be a lot worse

 

Edited April 14, 2014 by Summer Sun

[johnholmes]

The prediction on the 500mb chart on GFS/Extra this morning is not a thousand miles from what the anomaly charts were suggesting a couple of days ago. But minor changes in positioning of trough and ridge can make all the difference to what the surface weather would be.

It is now being suggested that the upper and surface ridge will be fairly dominant with the upper trough less so hence the weather is now being suggested as more settled than say a week ago or even a couple of days ago.

Time of course will show just what we all actually get over Easter.

[vladthemert]

April been pretty dry so far.  Although comes back very wet winter many would welcome it, could prolonged dry spell be bad.   Whats long term forecasts could summer be unsettled or maintain its dry period.

[knocker]

ECM EPS

Edited April 14, 2014 by knocker

[vladthemert]

ECMWF has us cooler on east coast for easter with and small low come in from poland for monday. 

 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO remains very settled for Good Friday to at least Easter Sunday I think Thursday and Friday will the cloudiest days this week

 

 

Edited April 14, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

Looks like the northern half of the UK should have at least the first 3 days of the Easter weekend dry. But must note that the south east in particular could see rain every day of the weekend as the GFS shows. UKMO on the other hand looks fine UK wide Friday until at least Sunday.

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks like the northern half of the UK should have at least the first 3 days of the Easter weekend dry. But must note that the south east in particular could see rain every day of the weekend as the GFS shows. UKMO on the other hand looks fine UK wide Friday until at least Sunday.

Indeed, the nmm16 model shows potentially unsettled conditions moving into southern parts of the Uk by about Sunday and this extends somewhat further north as time goes by! A long way from what the models showed this time last week! I meant the  NMM18 MODEL

And the outlook is cool too....

Edited April 14, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[Summer Sun]

ECM is following UKMO nicely again tonight at t120

 

 

UKMO

 

 

By Easter Sunday it starts to show a similar pattern to GFS

 

Edited April 14, 2014 by Summer Sun