Summer 2014 thread

[BlueHedgehog074]

Have to confess I'm not really liking the look of the charts for next weekend. Since it's still a week away, their could still be a chance that the models might 'tone down' the unsettled outlook, or somehow adjust those strong Lows much further North and West. All is not lost yet.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Which composites are you looking at? I don't see an Atlantic trough for either amplitude.

 

It's because the last time I checked out the MJO it was forecast to move into phases 4 and 5, the composites for which do show an Atlantic trough, but the forecast has changed quite a bit since then, with phases 2/3 looking more likely, suggesting above-average pressure to the north and below-average to the south.  The current model outputs don't really support this, although they are having difficulty handing ex-hurricane tracks at present and I note that they now have the Atlantic trough fading and drifting east around 10-15 August introducing a very unsettled spell.

Edited August 3, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[Captain Shortwave]

I would have to ask one question, are the charts tonight any more likely to be correct on the path of Bertha compared to previous runs? Given it's ETA for western Europe I would say it will be at least another 24 hours if not longer before we have a good idea of where it will go. As usual it seems like the warm/dry week 2 charts are always wrong and the unsettled ones are right. Did some people hibernate for the last couple of weeks?

[conor123]

Think future summer holiday's may be needed in Costa Del Scandinavia, weeks on end of hot sunshine every summer and even the sea temperature's are up into the low 20's for many.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reursst.gif

 

The modern Central/Eastern Europe Summer really is shockingly consistent for warmth to, e.g much of Germany/Poland etc has an average max of 24/25c in the summer tops yet seems to hover around 27-32c almost all summer long.

 

Anyway managed an 8.5/10 July here, on par with last July although like last year missing a good thunderstorm again, a very consistent month for warmth and sunshine with a remarkably few number of 'stratogrot' days.

Unfortunately just like last year August looks set to mark down the overall summer, last August was notable for being 23/24c and sunny a lot of the time down towards Stourbridge/Wolverhampton whilst Telford sat under a bank of 80% stratocumulus coverage all day at 20c, and it's begun already today haha!

[Milhouse]

I would have to ask one question, are the charts tonight any more likely to be correct on the path of Bertha compared to previous runs? Given it's ETA for western Europe I would say it will be at least another 24 hours if not longer before we have a good idea of where it will go. As usual it seems like the warm/dry week 2 charts are always wrong and the unsettled ones are right. Did some people hibernate for the last couple of weeks?

 

In what has been a decent summer, the amount of space given over to talk of unsettled and cool in the MOD has been shocking.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I get a sense that in the model output thread the prevailing tendency is to desire warm dry sunny weather, but to be pessimistic about it, while those who prefer cool, cloudy and/or wet summer weather tend to be less pessimistic.  We get surprisingly few people posting in there from a convection/thunderstorms perspective, as they seem to stay mainly over in the convection/storms area.  The result is that the prevailing tone of the posts tends to be downbeat and focusing disproportionately on cool and unsettled weather.

 

I expect a rather breezy and changeable spell from the 11th-13th judging by current model outputs but I'll be surprised if that pattern continues for most of the rest of August.  The MJO signals, and a few hints from the longer-range model outputs, may suggest relatively high pressure building from the south in the third week of August and a pattern with above-average pressure to the north, and below-average to the south, and reduced westerlies, establishing later in the month.

Edited August 3, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[Costa Del Fal]

In what has been a decent summer, the amount of space given over to talk of unsettled and cool in the MOD has been shocking.

Whilst there is no denying the outlook isnt pretty at times, I just wish certain posters in the MOD would offer all round analysis instead of just jumping out with a boatload of charts when it looks wet/cool. Why do they never post when the opposite is due? Just as interesting to talk about.... Sometimes it seems like a lot are celebrating and glorifying some of the 'awful' charts on show. Awful for tourist industries, people wanting to enjoy the outdoors and all round rubbish for most peoples enjoyment of one of the key holiday parts of the year. No matter how much people argue, there is no doubt in my mind the majority want and need dry and warm conditions at this time of year not the arrival Autumnal...in the wrong season. It just seems so unsociable to me.

Edited August 3, 2014 by Costa Del Fal

[Milhouse]

I get a sense that in the model output thread the prevailing tendency is to desire warm dry sunny weather, but to be pessimistic about it, while those who prefer cool, cloudy and/or wet summer weather tend to be less pessimistic.  We get surprisingly few people posting in there from a convection/thunderstorms perspective, as they seem to stay mainly over in the convection/storms area.  The result is that the prevailing tone of the posts tends to be downbeat and focusing disproportionately on cool and unsettled weather.

 

 

 

Would tend to agree with you there. Its been mostly talk of the Atlantic reawakening in FI, or talk of an approaching unsettled spell. Pretty much since the start of June.

[ANYWEATHER]

Would tend to agree with you there. Its been mostly talk of the Atlantic reawakening in FI, or talk of an approaching unsettled spell. Pretty much since the start of June.

The Atlantic is waking up abruptly, just look at the latest model output.....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

feel we may be talking about one of the wettest August's ever around my birthday, nightmare charts have child of nadine look about them

[Milhouse]

The Atlantic is waking up abruptly, just look at the latest model output.....

 

Oh ive seen it alright. But its been a dry and warm summer so far with nothing cool whatsoever, yet many posts do not seem to reflect that.

[Polar Maritime]

Oh ive seen it alright. But its been a dry and warm summer so far with nothing cool whatsoever, yet many posts do not seem to reflect that.

 

They have since mid last Month when the Models picked up on it, The trend grew stronger and we are now starting to see this reflect in reality, With only detail being in question now.

[AderynCoch]

I'd be wary of assuming the remnants of Bertha are going to cause us a washout. Remember when ex-Gordon approached us in September 2006? He stayed out west and gave us some very high temperatures for the time of year (29C in Nottingham on the 21st) before drifting away northwards.

 

And that's assuming ex-Bertha even reaches us. She's currently moving through the Bahamas and the 5-day forecast only takes her a few hundred miles east of Newfoundland, by which time the cone of uncertainty itself is hundreds of miles wide - and even that's contingent on the Day 4 position being correct.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/204057.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

 

We can be confident that Bertha will move around the western edge of the Bermuda High and into the North Atlantic - this is a very typical path for Atlantic hurricanes - but what happens thereafter is still up in the air. Even if she does make it over to this side of the pond a small margin of error can make a big difference, as Gordon showed.

[summer blizzard]

Love some of the complaints around discussion. Having being here nigh on a decade now I can tell you that in plenty of summers and winters anybody that disagrees with the hot/cold desire was practically shot on sight.

If anything I think this summer has seen a much more even mix in the model thread, possibly because people who would have looked for hot and dry spells have been treated to a warm but humid variety bar the other week.

Come the winter anybody being remotely realistic will see a gang of winter only members jump on them. I recall myself a few winters ago that I went into the southern regional thread and said that unfortunately the front will be rain south of the M4, I was lambasted by no less than 11 winter only members. While I happily stood in the snow here in Leeds they whined about the rain in the end.

[cheeky_monkey]

Still remarkably dry here..the rain forecast for Friday and the weekend missed me completely didn't even get a shower.

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook talking about ex-Tropical Storm Bertha

 

By the weekend there may be a brief respite from the wind and rain however from Sunday onwards the charts are diverging on the dominant weather pattern. All suggest unsettled weather for the UK to end the weekend and begin the new week, but to varying degrees. One scenario brings ex-Tropical Storm Bertha towards our shores, as an extra tropical system, but one that holds a potentially very wet and windy spell of weather, in tandem with high spring tides!! Please keep tuned to the forecasts for updates.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[matty007]

Feels more like Spring than Summer. 

[laserguy]

Feels more like Spring than Summer. 

 

Bonkers!

[matty007]

Bonkers!

 

 

Compared to what we had in July it does. I've known warmer weather in March than we have now. I understand that the North has a much worse deal than us in the East and South, but 22c in the height of Summer is hardly what I'd call special or great. Especially with the cloud and pretty high wind.

 

I'm not being pessimistic either. Just annoyed that August once again looks like bringing down yet another great Summer. 

Edited August 4, 2014 by matty007

[laserguy]

Compared to what we had in July it does. ......Just annoyed that August once again looks like bringing down yet another great Summer. 

 

Oh I see what you mean now - guess it does feel like a bit of a comedown for heat lovers, just like it did for us coldies when the temp rose to the dizzy heights of 0C in late 2010! I think you've all done mighty well this summer - hope August can redress the balance!

 

Edit: only having a laugh - not trying to start a squabble!

Edited August 4, 2014 by laserguy

[Tony27]

22c is the average temp for august, if it was 22c in spring it would be well above average, this is plenty warm enough for me, it's still 2 months until we hit the cool dark season sadly

[matty007]

Oh I see what you mean now - guess it does feel like a bit of a comedown for heat lovers, just like it did for us coldies when the temp rose to the dizzy heights of 0C in late 2010! I think you've all done mighty well this summer - hope August can redress the balance!

 

Edit: only having a laugh - not trying to start a squabble!

 

Hell of a comedown really. A good 5-7c cooler and a big drop in humidity and higher winds. I suppose some would see this as nice fresh Summer weather, but to me it's a little cool, I like it warmer and certainly sunnier. That's just me though. 

 

I think we'll see a 30c this month again, but very much doubt we'll see a heatwave with any substance. Shame really, if August had been like July it would have been a wonderful Summer. As usual, it looks like August will ruin the show before a nice bit of settled weather in September to finish off Summer. Save for an Indian Summer of course. 

 

Haha it's fine. Not point in arguing over the weather. Even if I view your weather preference as a little odd haha. 

[matty007]

22c is the average temp for august, if it was 22c in spring it would be well above average, this is plenty warm enough for me, it's still 2 months until we hit the cool dark season sadly

 

Average yes, not arguing there. But it's relative to the weather you had beforehand. Going from what we had last month to this is a little disappointing. I'm certainly not saying it's cold, but it's too cloudy and the winds are too high, making it feel a little cool for me. 

 

If we had this weather in 2012 it would be viewed as great. But we had it after a settled and warm June and especially July, it's a bit of a contrast really. Even if it is 'average'. 

[Weather-history]

What a beautiful mid afternoon. Clouds have virtually vanished.

[hillbilly]

Compared to what we had in July it does. I've known warmer weather in March than we have now. I understand that the North has a much worse deal than us in the East and South, but 22c in the height of Summer is hardly what I'd call special or great. Especially with the cloud and pretty high wind.

 

I'm not being pessimistic either. Just annoyed that August once again looks like bringing down yet another great Summer. 

22 deg...not summer??.....22 and sunny is a good summers day in these parts,yes it is a little fresher ,a little more wind and cooler in the morning but it is hardly spring.I think you have just been spoiled by the last few weeks.I think we have not had much more than a week warmer than that in these parts and have recorded 21 deg today so we are amazingly close since we are normally 3 to 5 deg cooler than southern England here!!