Arctic Ice Discussion 2014: the thaw...

[stewfox]

Very difficult to say BFTV so some of the recent forecasts have hinted at just that over the coming period? We are losing our 'easy ice' now so any continuation of the trend must be at the expense of our 'good ice'?

 

 

 

 

The thickness of the remaining ice should ensure a slow down although Hudson and other areas outside the basin will go fairly soon.

[Geordiesnow]

The thickness of the remaining ice should ensure a slow down although Hudson and other areas outside the basin will go fairly soon.

 

And the models are hinting that we MAY see more cyclonic weather conditions soon because whilst the recent weather has not been fully high pressure orientated(we did have a brief period of very shallow lows over the parts of the Basin before pressure build again) it has largely been high pressure ruling the roost. The plus side is this has caused winds being quite slack so not weakening the ice in this aspect but probably has caused more sunshine to hit the ice and the darker water areas. 

 

Looks too me 2013 still had better ice conditions closer to the Pacific side of the Arctic which coupled with the favorable weather conditions meant there was a lot of ice on the pacific side compared to recent years in September but the Atlantic side saw a record low retreat and there was very poor ice conditions near the pole(if this was not the case, 2013 would of seen a higher extent). This year is different with better ice conditions nearer the pole and unless the weather patterns change for frequent southerly winds, the ice pack may not retreat as far Northwards than last year but all will depends on the weather patterns will determine whether we will finish above 2013 or not. 

 

Very slight good news on the volume front but all relative when you see 2007 albeit that year obviously had poor conditions for ice retention. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

No significant pulses of warm air entering the Arctic over the next 5 days or so, just the odd bit of warmth skirting close to the Arctic coastlines and the high pressure fading slowly. I'd expect the area and extent reductions to start slowing soon as the ice disappears from Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay, taking away their ability to drag the overall numbers down. The Kara sea is primed for a rapid reduction in coverage, but temps and SLP it looks like staying close to average or slightly below for now.

 

A few more days of moderate to high losses from Hudson and Baffin, then perhaps a slight slowdown?

[keithlucky]

definite slow down of ice loss according to Masie and some freeze taking place.

Region Start End Last 101 Last 28 Last 14 Last 7 Last 3 Last 1 Baffin Bay Gulf of St. Lawrence 1,688,530 250,737 -1,437,793 -658,605 -448,500 -236,619 -43,837 0 Hudson Bay 1,260,903 610,879 -650,024 -559,498 -305,907 -167,272 -14,816 521 Greenland Sea 603,416 432,155 -171,260 -193,575 -118,708 -78,874 -48,210 -11,684 Laptev Sea 897,845 472,313 -425,531 -213,717 -202,093 -78,786 -40,053 -16,419 Barents Sea 645,917 109,185 -536,732 -155,345 -61,750 -68,561 -7,746 -924 Kara Sea 933,859 731,000 -202,859 -119,773 -130,822 -39,214 9,242 37,568 Chukchi Sea 966,006 709,240 -256,766 -157,563 -39,239 -35,027 3,907 -475 Beaufort Sea 1,070,445 891,689 -178,756 -144,715 -59,571 -7,929 11,996 14,254 Canadian Archipelago 853,214 743,808 -109,406 -43,908 -14,390 -3,476 6,530 6,940 Bering Sea 697,324 8,943 -688,380 -72,766 -23,812 -2,371 -4,462 -468 East Siberian Sea 1,087,137 1,012,983 -74,154 -998 -21,951 -2,352 -46 37 Central Arctic 3,221,921 3,227,093 5,172 -15,005 -15,714 -2,067 -4,366 2,275 Baltic Sea 15,337 0 -15,337 0 0 0 0 0 Sea of Okhotsk 853,240 0 -853,240 -20,538 -32 0 0 0 Yellow Sea 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0                   Northern Hemisphere (Total) 14,805,115 9,201,538 -5,603,577 -2,355,637 -1,442,505 -722,563 -131,861 31,624                   NH (Average Loss per Day)     -54,937 -84,130 -103,036 -103,223 -43,954 31,62

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

definite slow down of ice loss according to Masie and some freeze taking place.

Region Start End Last 101 Last 28 Last 14 Last 7 Last 3 Last 1 Baffin Bay Gulf of St. Lawrence 1,688,530 250,737 -1,437,793 -658,605 -448,500 -236,619 -43,837 0 Hudson Bay 1,260,903 610,879 -650,024 -559,498 -305,907 -167,272 -14,816 521 Greenland Sea 603,416 432,155 -171,260 -193,575 -118,708 -78,874 -48,210 -11,684 Laptev Sea 897,845 472,313 -425,531 -213,717 -202,093 -78,786 -40,053 -16,419 Barents Sea 645,917 109,185 -536,732 -155,345 -61,750 -68,561 -7,746 -924 Kara Sea 933,859 731,000 -202,859 -119,773 -130,822 -39,214 9,242 37,568 Chukchi Sea 966,006 709,240 -256,766 -157,563 -39,239 -35,027 3,907 -475 Beaufort Sea 1,070,445 891,689 -178,756 -144,715 -59,571 -7,929 11,996 14,254 Canadian Archipelago 853,214 743,808 -109,406 -43,908 -14,390 -3,476 6,530 6,940 Bering Sea 697,324 8,943 -688,380 -72,766 -23,812 -2,371 -4,462 -468 East Siberian Sea 1,087,137 1,012,983 -74,154 -998 -21,951 -2,352 -46 37 Central Arctic 3,221,921 3,227,093 5,172 -15,005 -15,714 -2,067 -4,366 2,275 Baltic Sea 15,337 0 -15,337 0 0 0 0 0 Sea of Okhotsk 853,240 0 -853,240 -20,538 -32 0 0 0 Yellow Sea 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0                   Northern Hemisphere (Total) 14,805,115 9,201,538 -5,603,577 -2,355,637 -1,442,505 -722,563 -131,861 31,624                   NH (Average Loss per Day)     -54,937 -84,130 -103,036 -103,223 -43,954 31,62

 

 

Careful how you read the daily ups and downs Keith. During July it's much to mild for any refreezing to occur. The ups and down in regional areas are partially due to ice drift, melt pond formation and drainage, sensor errors (as well as actual melt at this time of year). It won't be until we're into August that things will likely get cold enough to start freezing sea water again.

[Gray-Wolf]

Could we not see melt ponds re-freeze over the colder part ( dark?) of the day BFTV? I thought i'd better ask!

[stewfox]

Below average temperatures in 80th Northern Parallel Arctic amplification kicking in notice North Pole temperatures below normal all summer.http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php 

 

Similar to 2013 but not repeated in any other year 

[Interitus]

Similar to 2013 but not repeated in any other year 

 

Maybe worth repeating that the current ECMWF NWP resolution used to derive the temperatures has only been in use since 2010 so comparisons with previous years may not be accurate. The 2002 chart shows the possible effects of switching from one model to another, with the ERA40 to t511.

[Geordiesnow]

No significant pulses of warm air entering the Arctic over the next 5 days or so, just the odd bit of warmth skirting close to the Arctic coastlines and the high pressure fading slowly. I'd expect the area and extent reductions to start slowing soon as the ice disappears from Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay, taking away their ability to drag the overall numbers down. The Kara sea is primed for a rapid reduction in coverage, but temps and SLP it looks like staying close to average or slightly below for now.

 

A few more days of moderate to high losses from Hudson and Baffin, then perhaps a slight slowdown?

 

Would disagree with that slightly, the pacific side of the Arctic looking like having quite warm upper air temps and it seems beaufort may get another slice of warmth before low pressure moves in. The synoptics on paper do look like they may become a little bit more favorable for sea ice retention but ice on the Pacific side of the Arctic does look somewhat vulnerable and that Laptev bite will have a say on where extent will end up. 

 

Also forget about any warm up, what about the possibility of the desert moving into the East Siberian sea! massive pool of +20C uppers could enter the basin Never seen anything of that size before. I believe July 2010 briefly saw the +20C briefly enter the Chukchi Sea area but that seems very minor compared to this.  

 

Obviously this well in the medium term  and the models have been quite inconsistent on the weather at higher latitudes recently but both the ECM and GFS are hinting at the possibility. Also if such a hot pool develop, if indeed we do get some colder air, its got the potential to develop quite a deep low pressure system like it did in 2012 and to a lesser extent 2013 - albeit the latter did not done any damage to the ice as it ended up nearer the Canadian Arctic islands and it was less intence. 

[knocker]

 

July 13th 2014

The previous update from two weeks ago ended with this:

The next PIOMAS update might tell us more about the ice pack's ability to withstand whatever conditions the weather throws at it.

The PIOMAS update reported a slowdown in the volume decrease during June, with 2014 now highest of all the post-2010 years. Combined with the lack of melt ponds and transport, and the slow decline of sea ice area (see below), this has definitely made a new record impossible. If it weren't for this map of June sea ice thickness distribution compared to last year, I'd even be inclined to say that 2014 will end up outside of the top 5, very close to 2013.

But the map shows that except for the core of the ice pack, the ice is thinner in some key fringe areas such as the Beaufort Sea and the East Siberian Sea. Then there's the increasingly fascinating hole in the Laptev Sea (see below), which will reach who knows how far North. And so it might be possible for this melting season to end up in the top 3, despite its bad start and lack of melt ponds.

But for that to happen, a lot of weather that's conducive to melt, transport and compaction is needed.

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/07/asi-2014-update-5-low-times.html

Edited July 13, 2014 by knocker

[stewfox]

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/07/asi-2014-update-5-low-times.html

 

Pleasing to see volume up which should slow down IJIS rate of decline.

 

Lets hope we have greater volume and more multi year ice at the start of the re freeze season.

 

A link that shows posts can be made purely around numbers with no hype or spin which is good to see.

[Geordiesnow]

I do like the Nevan blog but its ashame the forum seems to be full of posts wishing for a big melt season for what I assume are political reasons. 

 

It has been an interesting melt season so far with the quite cold conditions in June across the central Arctic to the pressure pattern of a quite large area of high pressure yet little transport through fram because of the such dominating force of the high and the low pressure systems being in slightly different positions. The massive Laptev bite is another interesting factor and as such still causing uncertainty how this will affect the rest of the melt season, the general better condition of the ice near the pole than last year could well be considered as an interesting factor and as such may stop the retreat on the Atlantic side of the Arctic reaching as far North as it did last year. 

 

Although the ice extent on the JAXA graphs look really poor this year, there does seem to be a general agreement 2014 won't be a record breaker but i'm not going to get carried away with anything because weather will still play the most important role and things can change quickly. 

 

As far as the forecast is concerned, that big pool of hot air is still there and will remain so, there was some hints it may enter the basin but this has been dropped although once again in the medium to long term, there are hints it may enter into the worse possible place(Laptev) with very unfavourable wind directions as a result. What looks more certain is an reverse dipole, which is mixed news but perhaps more good news than bad for retaining the sea ice and if this does happen as forecast then it will be interesting how this will affect extent. Also my eyes over the coming days will be remaining on that large pool of hot air and will be hoping it will stay away from the basin although I understand it could cause more damage to the permafrost but this is something i have much less knowledge on but clearly is not good news we see such intense hot pool of air reaching so far North. 

 

Surprised there has not been more posts in this thread because the melt season has not been a dull one so far and the interesting upcoming forecast will certainly keep my eyes firmly on the sea ice. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Methane issues aside G.S. , the less 'cold' we have surrounding the basin to help modify temps the better? We lose the permafrost ( it migrates further and further down the column as the surface melts?) and we have a large region able to rapidly warm come spring and impacts the shorefast ice? I think we see similar across the Canadian side with once ice cap now open rock surface meaning we now get regular high temps once the sun is up over summer and so limits the channel ice throughout the Archipelago?

 

Loss of permafrost also opens up the land to wildfire which leaves a dark surface for next seasons melt and coats the surrounding snow/ice with soot hastening its melt?

 

There is also the 'sink' that melting permafrost used to provide for some of the energy? with the frozen zone now deep inside the energy is now feed up for other tasks? There is so much with the cryosphere that involves a redistribution of energy already available? From albedo flip ( gaining the heat once shed into space) ice melt ( freeing up energy once the ice has gone) permafrost melt ( freeing up energy that once went into melting the permafrost) so even without our forcing an energy imbalance across the planet there is a lot of energy that we didn't used to 'see' now entering into the system?

[4wd]

 

the 'sink' that melting permafrost used to provide for some of the energy? with the frozen zone now deep inside the energy is now feed up for other tasks

How do you make that assumption, it shows a total lack of understanding of how energy is used and released during changes of state.

[Gray-Wolf]

How so four? We see the data of how deep the 'defrosting' has now got down to so how does your science explain what happens to new arriving energy each spring compared to how it was utilised when the surface was deep frozen.

Edited July 14, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[keithlucky]

Very similar track as 2006 no loses over the last 3 days http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

Edited July 15, 2014 by keithlucky

[Gray-Wolf]

And yet JAXA post a 91, 49 and 73,000km2 losses on the same days??? DMI appear to have lost 1/5 of a million sq km of ice??? NSIDC seem to show the same level of loss also??? What criteria do DMI use Keith? is it 30% or 15% ( and why do you favour the one you do?).

[Geordiesnow]

And yet JAXA post a 91, 49 and 73,000km2 losses on the same days??? DMI appear to have lost 1/5 of a million sq km of ice??? NSIDC seem to show the same level of loss also??? What criteria do DMI use Keith? is it 30% or 15% ( and why do you favour the one you do?).

 

I believe the DMI uses 30% coverage and whilst I use it as a guide, I would not take it fully as gospel but maybe it shows the 15% coverage may slow down also soon.

 

The reverse di-pole is still there but it tends to fades and the models are hinting low pressure systems in general may become a more dominating feature which is better news than just a reverse dipole aslong of course there is no major intence low pressure systems.

 

The hot pool although still there is slightly smaller and thankfully the agreement on the models that for the most part, it should stay on land rather than hitting the Arctic. 

 

The ECM in my eyes seems to have a bit of a bias of things being a bit colder upper air temps than the GFS and it seems the GFS is more accurate in this, it would be nice too see some proper chilly air over the basin like the ECM shows and if the set up is slack, then this should be good for the ice in theory.

[Gray-Wolf]

Not seeing keiths slowdown yet? that's another 80 thou on JAXA.

[knocker]

Up unto the end of the month the ECM is showing an 850 cold anomaly much along these lines.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'd expect a significant slowdown in extent and area losses over the coming week.

 

850hPa temperatures are set to become increasingly cool and well below average across much of the Arctic Ocean.

 

....................T0................................... ......... ..............T120

 

While slack low pressure takes hold, reducing the potential for sunshine to increase melt, but not strong enough to significantly churn up the ice.

 

T120

 

 

 

Combined with the slightly improved volume, and the cold weather across central areas so far this summer, I think we have pretty close to ideal conditions for below average losses coming up, which (by the NSIDC extent) should put us above 2013 and 2010 in the next week. Even in recent days, we've already moved close to the long term average loss and below the average of the 2007-2013 period, so it will be interesting to see how slow the melt can go in July.

[Geordiesnow]

Not seeing keiths slowdown yet? that's another 80 thou on JAXA.

 

We are in the middle part of July and we all know this is part of the season where ice still melts pretty fast especially these days, whilst the outlook is looking cool(would not say desprately cold although at last the GFS is hinting at some more proper cold upper air temps) there is still some isolated warm areas with ice vulnable to melt, most noticeably Kara Sea.

 

One noticetable thing so far this melt season is the lack of tight isobars across the Arctic which is quite unusual, even during the high pressure spell because it was so large in size there was a lack of transport through fram and a lack of deep low pressure systems meant so far, the ice has not been weakened in this way like it did in 2013. 

 

Be interesting too see where the final extent ends up, I don't expect to see as much ice on the Pacific side of the basin as there was in 2013 but I also don't expect the ice to retreat as far Northwards as in 2013 with cooler SST's, less southerly winds and the lack of hot air blowing into the Kara Sea from Russia. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

This was a reponse to some posts over on the sea ice forum, but I thought it might be useful here too.

 ----- --------------    ------------------------- ------------------- ---------------------- -----------------------------

 

Just my opinion, but I think there were some very important differences around this time 2012 compared to now.

 

2012 had a clearly defined high pressure area around the general NAO region during the summer, coupled with low pressure stretching from Western Canada/Alaska along the Eurasian coastline and into the Barents sea.

 

SLP anomaly, May 1st to Jul 16th

 

This strong pressure gradients created a surface wind pattern that pulled warm air up through the Baffin sea, into the CAA, into the Beaufort sea and then the central Arctic. It also created a strong flow out through Fram

 

 

Resulting in some very mild conditions across the Arctic.

 

Which brought with it, anomalously warm SSTs, lower concentration in Across much of the Arctic, and a more rapid summer decline on PIOMAS. All of which, suggested that the Arctic was primed for continued large losses and had a high probability of setting some record lows

http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b017616798c0f970c-350wi

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/data/201207/WNDSI20120717IC0.png

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1_CY.png

 

This year, however, we've had no strong high and low pressure regions, just a relatively weak HP over Barents toward Greenland.

 

 

Meaning no strong pressure gradient to drive surface warmth north into the Arctic, and no push to send extra ice out through Fram

 

And thus relatively cool temperatures

 

Resulting in a slow down in volume loss, higher concentration across central parts, closer to average SSTs through the Arctic (though still generally above average) and in my opinion, a much lower chance of a record low September minimum, unless something dramatic happens in August.

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1_CY.png

http://i.imgur.com/uLTFgef.png

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/data/201407/AM2SI20140717IC0.png

 

Given the situation this year, we'd need some very strong melt conditions in August to challenge record low, whereas 2012, the incredibly warm SSTs we're going to help the melt along into August, the low concentration meant that the continued melt would be felt in both coverage measures, not just volume, and the high rate of export from Fram melt we were losing some of the most resilient ice in the Arctic too.

 

All in all, I think it was clear that the Arctic was in a bad way this time 2012

Edited July 18, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[stewfox]

I'd expect a significant slowdown in extent and area losses over the coming week.

 

 

 

Slow down now being delivered on que

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

Temperatures remain depressed in the high arctic

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

A end figure a little above last year remains on the cards

[keithlucky]

Big freeze up in most regions in Arctic sea ice according to masie

Region 113 days ago End Last 112 Last 28 Last 14 Last 7 Last 3 Last 1 Kara Sea 933,859 527,941 -405,918 -328,098 -193,817 -143,836 -29,090 -18,047 Bering Sea 697,324 787 -696,537 -36,031 -12,618 -7,871 -6,558 -6,558 Baltic Sea 15,337 0 -15,337 0 0 0 0 0 Sea of Okhotsk 853,240 0 -853,240 -32 0 0 0 0 Yellow Sea 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Canadian Archipelago 853,214 710,185 -143,029 -68,268 -27,093 -18,593 4,544 4,544 Barents Sea 645,917 99,089 -546,829 -86,102 -17,843 515 11,199 5,076 Hudson Bay 1,260,903 297,084 -963,819 -795,217 -328,611 -168,738 -8,513 7,072 Central Arctic 3,221,921 3,204,653 -17,269 -37,366 -26,806 1,238 19,542 7,369 Greenland Sea 603,416 419,770 -183,646 -258,697 -60,595 -12,947 9,202 10,325 Chukchi Sea 966,006 648,560 -317,447 -161,028 -56,774 -2,294 10,338 10,338 Baffin Bay Gulf of St. Lawrence 1,688,530 146,557 -1,541,974 -707,908 -148,017 -16,358 20,990 19,529 Beaufort Sea 1,070,445 836,641 -233,804 -172,446 -43,052 -3,948 24,130 24,130 East Siberian Sea 1,087,137 1,013,009 -74,128 -33,129 -20 39,352 44,411 28,743 Laptev Sea 897,845 390,955 -506,890 -299,542 -121,412 -30,799 17,943 30,994                   Northern Hemisphere (Total) 14,805,115 8,296,372 -6,508,743 -2,984,249 -1,037,027 -364,281 118,137 123,515                   NH (Average Loss per Day)     -57,599 -106,580 -74,073 -52,040 39,379  

Edited July 20, 2014 by keithlucky