Arctic Ice Discussion 2014: the thaw...

[Geordiesnow]

Although the detail is subject to change, the set ups the models are showing are very worrying imo, once this colder period has past, it looks like things are going to warm significantly across large swathes of the Arctic with the Barents sea being the noticetable acception(possibly the Beaufort to a certain extent) and the models look dead on certain of strong southerly winds blowing across the landmass into the Laptev bite which will no doubt make the ice retreat ever closer to the pole. 

 

This may scupper the chances of this year finishing higher than 2013 and may even lead the extent finishing the 2nd lowest on record(I still can't see 2012 being beaten but who knows with what is being projected!)

 

So up until around the 26-27th, conditions look reasonably cold for the majority of the basin but then the pattern changes and by the 28-29th July, large parts of the Arctic are under very warm air and strong winds so some large losses are quite possible. 

 

The only good news is that with Barents sea being quite cold, I can't see the ice retreating as far northwards as it did in 2012/13 but with large areas looking very likely to being engulfed into warm air and unfavorable wind direction then the pacific side of the Arctic could very well take quite a battering. 

 

Hopefully this pattern won't last too long and it won't be as severe as the models are showing. I think the strong winds into Laptev look certain but hopefully the follow on pattern of strong winds from Siberia with its very warm air hitting the basin can get altered somewhat to something less severe but whichever way you look at it, large parts of the arctic are very likely to warm up as we enter the latter stages of July. 

 

An interesting but concerning period coming up. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

I just posted this over on the sea ice forum. There are a lot of weather noobs there, so apologies if it comes across as patronising or overly simplistic.

 

--------------- ---------------------------- --------------------------------- ---------------------------- ------------------------- 

The forecast strong melt conditions are beginning to inch into the reliable time frame.

One of the important differences between the forecast high pressure and previous high pressure systems we've had in the Arctic this year is that the forecast one has support from mid latitude ridging, which can sustain a feed of warm air into the Arctic.

 

The strong mid/high latitude ridging doesn't come from central Russia, in fact, it comes up though Pacific. This strong ridge can be seen from the beginning of the ECM run, in the black box on the image below. It has upper level support too (meaning it's more likely to be strong, and last longer), as can be seen with the orange/red colours.

 

 

The smaller ridge, moving up from central Russia can also be seen, but it's the Pacific one that has the potential to cause sustained strong melting.

 

Anyway, as we move forward, we see the Pacific ridge moving toward the Bering Sea, while the weaker Russian ridge moves into the Laptev sea, carrying the first wave of warm air into the Arctic ocean.

 

ECM t72

 

Both ridges carry substantial warmth, which can be seen by viewing the temperature at the 850hPa level. The weaker Russian ridge has a smaller pocket of warm air than the Pacific ridge, and so is likely to run out of steam quite early.

 

 

As the Russian ridge weakens, it drifts westward and combines with the Pacific ridge, reinforcing it and helping to pull a new wave of warm air into the Arctic, in a very 2007-esque pattern.

 

 

 

 

It's this feed of warm air, courtesy of the strong ridge toward the Bering strait, that has the potential to start a period of very strong melt. This was one element of the pattern that caused so much damage in July 2007, the other element being a coincident Greenland ridge/-ve NAO which helped to pull the warm air further into the Arctic, while pushing the ice toward the Fram strait (which we're very much lacking this time around).

Still, with the ice as thin and weak as it is these days, if the forecast pattern comes off and the Pacific ridge lasts a while, we could well start challenging the bottom 3 years once more.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm still worrying about how the weathered/shattered ice now we are entering the period of max bottom melt. there's an awful lot of bottom out there!

[stewfox]

I'm still worrying about how the weathered/shattered ice now we are entering the period of max bottom melt. there's an awful lot of bottom out there!

 

Sea ice looks in better shape then last year but is a worry for sure

 

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticice_nowcast_anim365d.gif

[keithlucky]

Very slow loses from masie

Region 115 days ago End Last 114 Last 28 Last 14 Last 7 Last 3 Last 1 Baffin Bay Gulf of St. Lawrence 1,688,530 123,492 -1,565,038 -652,978 -127,245 -26,848 -3,535 -17,394 Greenland Sea 603,416 396,390 -207,026 -164,696 -47,450 -22,904 -13,055 -13,648 Hudson Bay 1,260,903 270,931 -989,972 -766,723 -339,427 -88,068 -19,081 -8,476 Central Arctic 3,221,921 3,196,228 -25,693 -44,670 -28,590 3,595 -1,055 -5,836 Canadian Archipelago 853,214 708,346 -144,868 -52,022 -28,522 -20,550 2,704 -625 Beaufort Sea 1,070,445 826,418 -244,027 -144,617 -51,017 14,100 13,907 0 Chukchi Sea 966,006 647,376 -318,630 -103,683 -62,339 2,558 9,154 0 East Siberian Sea 1,087,137 1,008,434 -78,703 -29,672 -4,512 31,517 24,168 0 Laptev Sea 897,845 377,521 -520,324 -297,742 -111,211 -35,448 17,560 0 Kara Sea 933,859 502,562 -431,298 -354,916 -190,871 -113,700 -43,426 0 Barents Sea 645,917 90,553 -555,364 -87,952 -19,557 -14 -3,460 0 Bering Sea 697,324 1,339 -695,985 -31,750 -8,073 -6,560 -6,006 0 Baltic Sea 15,337 0 -15,337 0 0 0 0 0 Sea of Okhotsk 853,240 0 -853,240 -32 0 0 0 0 Yellow Sea 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0                   Northern Hemisphere (Total) 14,805,115 8,150,732 -6,654,382 -2,731,837 -1,019,182 -262,323 -22,124 -45,979                  

[keithlucky]

No loses in the Arctic basin in the last 2 weeks http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

Edited July 24, 2014 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

Infact this graph shows Arctic ice up 50 thousand sq km unusual for this time of year

Edited July 24, 2014 by keithlucky

[BornFromTheVoid]

The daily data has lots of ups and downs, so it ain't unusual at all, and is why the NISDC us a 5 day mean on their extent graphs.

 

We have certainly slowed down over the last while though, with the average daily loss over the last 7 days (and using the 5 day mean) being the 3rd lowest on record for the time period (but still -67k/day)

[Geordiesnow]

Can't see the slow downs lasting for too much longer though, may survive until the 27th if we are lucky but after that, things look rather bleak indeed. If the Laptev bite was not so large I would be less concerned about the first attack so to speak but as it is, then the first attack could be quite damaging and barring some uknown explanation should bound to make that hole retreat ever northwards. 

 

The 2nd attack is more concerning, as others have said, very 2007 like is bound to do some damage, it does not look like we can escape from the 2nd attack either and it will happen in some form, just hope it does not last long and the detail is less severe than some projections I have seen. 

 

There is another worrying trend appearing on the ECM which is a low pressure system rapidly deepening and its quite a tight low and that will bound to do some weakening to the ice north of Svalbard, albeit the low pressure system is more than likely to be wrapped around with quite a bit of cold air but talk about a potential triple whammy! 

 

As ever with Arctic ice, nothing is ever straight forward but after some good sea ice conditions, we are heading to the opposite end of the scale and things could look all so different come the start of August.  

[knocker]

 

The second Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is now organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2014 Arctic sea ice extent, based on NSIDC monthly extent values. These projections are submitted by professionals as well as amateurs (public outlooks).

Here's the summary for the July report:

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/07/search-2014-sea-ice-outlook-july-report.html

[Buriedundersnow]

looks like there should be some pretty cold air over the arctic over the next few weeks

 

WSI Energy Weather â€@WSI_Energy 44m

Fun Fact: It still snows over the North Pole during the Summer... Greenland to pick up 10-25" these next two weeks.

 

[knocker]

Following on from some earlier posts.

 

Big Arctic Warm-Up Predicted For This Week: Melt to Speed Up, Or Sea Ice to Show Resiliency Due to Variability, Strength of Negative Feedbacks?

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/07/25/big-arctic-ocean-warm-up-predicted-for-this-week-melt-to-speed-up-or-sea-ice-to-show-resiliency-due-to-variability-strength-of-negative-feedbacks/

[keithlucky]

Following on from some earlier posts.

 

Big Arctic Warm-Up Predicted For This Week: Melt to Speed Up, Or Sea Ice to Show Resiliency Due to Variability, Strength of Negative Feedbacks?

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/07/25/big-arctic-ocean-warm-up-predicted-for-this-week-melt-to-speed-up-or-sea-ice-to-show-resiliency-due-to-variability-strength-of-negative-feedbacks/

Yes you more than likely  correct ,but Arctic ice is still 800,00sq km above 2011 level .at this same point of the melt season.

[knocker]

Yes you more than likely  correct ,but Arctic ice is still 800,00sq km above 2011 level .at this same point of the melt season.

 

And I hope it stays there.

[4wd]

Following on from some earlier posts.

 

Big Arctic Warm-Up Predicted For This Week: Melt to Speed Up, Or Sea Ice to Show Resiliency Due to Variability, Strength of Negative Feedbacks?

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/07/25/big-arctic-ocean-warm-up-predicted-for-this-week-melt-to-speed-up-or-sea-ice-to-show-resiliency-due-to-variability-strength-of-negative-feedbacks/

What a load of bunk on that blog.This is so typical of assumptions dressed as known facts. 

 

 

Beneath a warming, moistening Arctic atmosphere, sea ice loses resiliency due to slow attrition of the ice surface, due to loss of albedo as ice melts, and due to slower rates of refreeze during winter. Atop a warming Arctic Ocean, sea ice loses bottom resiliency, tends to be thinner and more broken, and shows greater vulnerability to anything that churns the ocean surface to mix it with the warming deeper layers — storms, strong winds, powerful high pressure systems.

It is this powerful set of dynamics under human caused climate change that has dragged the Arctic sea ice into what has been called a ‘Death Spiral.’ A seemingly inexorable plunge to zero or near zero ice coverage far sooner than was previously anticipated.

[BornFromTheVoid]

What a load of bunk on that blog.This is so typical of assumptions dressed as known facts.

Would you mind presenting some counter evidence to support your assertion that it's just a "load of bunk"?

[The PIT]

Aaah one of those it's all going to melt not next year but the year after sites. At least the eye catching graph says offers very little guidance. Anyway lets see what happens if the heatwave comes off or not.

[BornFromTheVoid]

There's actually a lot more to the article. It starts off talking about positive feedbacks, then talks about negative feedbacks, then discusses the currents forecast, before finishing with

 

------------------- ------------------------ ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------ ----------------

 

Negative Feedbacks and Weather Unfavorable For Melt

 

If the melt pattern described above comes to impact the ice and push greater rates of sea ice loss over the coming days and weeks, it’s likely that end season 2014 will end up with sea ice measures below those of 2013, but above the previous record lows seen during past years. This would likely put 2014 well within the range of the post 2007 era at 3rd to 5th lowest on record for most monitors. Not a new record year, but still well within the grips of the death spiral.

 

If, however, the weather predicted does not emerge or the sea ice retains resiliency through it, then 2014 stands a chance of pushing above final levels seen in 2013. In such an event, end season area and extent measures may challenge levels last seen during 2005 while sea ice volume maintains between 4th and 5th lowest.

 

If this happens, we may need to start asking this question:

 

Are negative feedbacks, in the form of greatly increased freshwater flows from rivers and glaciers, starting to pull the Arctic sea ice out of a high angle nose dive and are they beginning to soften the rate of decline? Or is this just a year when weather again wagged the dog as natural variability played a trump card for the summer of 2014 but further drives for new records will follow come 2015, 2016, or 2017?

 

In any case, near-term sea ice forecasts remain somewhat murky, as they should given the high instability of the current situation.

 

----------------- ---------------------- --------------------------- ------------------------- --------------------------- -------------------------

 

Unfortunately, many climate "sceptics" seem to have trouble with their attention spans when reading anything that presents balance, isn't based on emotive rhetoric and doesn't start from an ideological or political point of view.

Edited July 26, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[The PIT]

 

Unfortunately, many climate "sceptics" seem to have trouble with their attention spans when reading anything that presents balance, isn't based on emotive rhetoric and doesn't start from an ideological or political point of view.

 

Well you can say the same about warmist alarmists. As ever the truth is somewhere between. If you nail any scientist they will say they don't understand all the feedbacks and when that is the case it's all theory some of which maybe correct and some of which maybe wrong.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Well you can say the same about warmist alarmists. As ever the truth is somewhere between. If you nail any scientist they will say they don't understand all the feedbacks and when that is the case it's all theory some of which maybe correct and some of which maybe wrong.

 

Warmist alarmists. Does that include the actual scientists? But one thing is sure, if you keep heating a piece of ice, not matter what other changes you introduce, it's going to melt eventually!

[Gael_Force]

I would appreciate any thoughts on this article.

 

http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/uploads/media/Moerner_Science_environm_sea_level_3_11_Paper_534.pdf

 

With Energy in the title Is it a sponsored Skeptical publication - is it a crank theory?

 

[knocker]

Obviously haven't had a chance to read the paper but he wrote another about the same time that was hotly disputed regarding sea level rise.

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Nils-Axel-Morner-wrong-about-sea-level-rise.html

 

And his CV, Need I say more?

 

http://www.desmogblog.com/nils-axel-morner

Edited July 26, 2014 by knocker

[stewfox]

Would you mind presenting some counter evidence to support your assertion that it's just a "load of bunk"?

 

Surely when you read comments such as 

 

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It is this powerful set of dynamics under human caused climate change that has dragged the Arctic sea ice into what has been called a ‘Death Spiral.’ A seemingly inexorable plunge to zero or near zero ice coverage far sooner than was previously anticipated.

-------------------------------

 

it makes the worst skeptic blog from a qualified flower arranger look reasonable

 

However one thing is sure 'if' we do end up higher then last year its not going to go down well in many quarters. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

I would appreciate any thoughts on this article.

 

http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/uploads/media/Moerner_Science_environm_sea_level_3_11_Paper_534.pdf

 

With Energy in the title Is it a sponsored Skeptical publication - is it a crank theory?

 

 

Hi Gael_Force

 

From even the paragraph you posted, you can immediately tell that it's an extremely biased piece of research. The claim that "little or no respect is paid to natural variability in climate"  is very clearly false. The IPCC reports have huge sections on natural variability of all kinds. To suggest that it's completely dismissed is pure nonsense.

 

The second thing, is the journal itself. The editor is a climate "sceptic" and claims ""I'm following my political agenda -- a bit, anyway. But isn't that the right of the editor?".

For a scientific journal, it should be about the quality and integrity of the research, not the political agenda that the editor wants to support. Anything, and I mean anything, that's published in the journal Energy and Environment should be viewed with an extremely large dose of scientific scepticism.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Surely when you read comments such as 

 

-------------------------------------

It is this powerful set of dynamics under human caused climate change that has dragged the Arctic sea ice into what has been called a ‘Death Spiral.’ A seemingly inexorable plunge to zero or near zero ice coverage far sooner than was previously anticipated.

-------------------------------

 

it makes the worst skeptic blog from a qualified flower arranger look reasonable

 

However one thing is sure 'if' we do end up higher then last year its not going to go down well in many quarters. 

 

He presents two possibilities. One where positive feedbacks send us on the "death spiral" towards ice free conditions within a few decades, and another where negative feedbacks (i.e., freshening of the Arctic ocean) causes a slow down in the rate of loss. He uses flowery language that would just about make the cut for WUWT comments section (or a Monkton post), but would get deleted for not towing the "sceptic" line anyway!