Arctic Ice Discussion 2014: the thaw...

[stewfox]

He presents two possibilities. One where positive feedbacks send us on the "death spiral" towards ice free conditions within a few decades, and another where negative feedbacks (i.e., freshening of the Arctic ocean) causes a slow down in the rate of loss. He uses flowery language that would just about make the cut for WUWT comments section (or a Monkton post), but would get deleted for not towing the "sceptic" line anyway!

 

I am not suggesting what he says maybe true or not re 'fresh water feedback'

 

but when you write

"

"For a recent study in 2011 showed that since 1992, Arctic Ocean surface fresh water content had increased by 20%"

 

There is no reference to that study (2011) but when you do find it , it reads (a number of factors could lead to increase fresh water)

 

--------------------

 

The freshwater content of the Arctic Ocean may rise due to increased sea ice or glacier melt, precipitation or river inputs. Less export of freshwater from the Arctic -- in the form of sea ice or in liquid form -- also results in a rise in the freshwater content. The authors of the study point to altered export of freshwater and altered inputs from near-coastal areas in Siberia to the central Arctic Ocean as the most probable reasons.

---------------------

 

​Unfortunately blogs are never black or white

[keithlucky]

Record cold Arctic summer end early  http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Edited July 27, 2014 by keithlucky

[Devonian]

Record cold Arctic summer end early  http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

Brave call Keith. How do you know?

[knocker]

ASI 2014 update 6: slow times

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/07/asi-2014-update-6-slow-times.html

[stewfox]

ASI 2014 update 6: slow times

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/07/asi-2014-update-6-slow-times.html

 

 

A good factual summary again

 

Some of the rapid declines forecast 7/10 days ago have not happen

 

Its still 50/50 whether we end up higher then last year.

 

Its pleasing to see the amount of multi year ice remaining on the west side and sea temperatures remaining below average.

Edited July 27, 2014 by stewfox

[stewfox]

Brave call Keith. How do you know?

 

I think 150 days of sub average temps in the high Arctic tell us nothing of what will happen in the whole arctic in August .

 

However what is clear is 'feed back mechanisms' are not fully understood.

[keithlucky]

Freeze day according to masie in some areas

Region 120 days ago End Last 119 Last 28 Last 14 Last 7 Last 3 Last 1 Laptev Sea 897,845 341,083 -556,761 -306,590 -80,671 -49,872 -7,452 -12,035 Baffin Bay Gulf of St. Lawrence 1,688,530 84,746 -1,603,784 -566,356 -78,169 -61,810 -26,933 -4,648 Canadian Archipelago 853,214 683,675 -169,540 -72,204 -45,104 -26,511 -11,039 -1,766 Kara Sea 933,859 404,649 -529,211 -393,782 -267,128 -123,292 -35,537 -1,116 Beaufort Sea 1,070,445 831,750 -238,695 -108,217 -8,839 -4,891 15,282 0 Chukchi Sea 966,006 641,806 -324,200 -103,305 -9,047 -6,753 13,784 0 East Siberian Sea 1,087,137 990,921 -96,217 -37,414 17,263 -22,088 4,073 0 Barents Sea 645,917 79,847 -566,070 -102,085 -18,726 -19,241 -6,450 0 Bering Sea 697,324 15 -697,308 -19,927 -8,643 -772 0 0 Baltic Sea 15,337 0 -15,337 0 0 0 0 0 Sea of Okhotsk 853,240 0 -853,240 0 0 0 0 0 Yellow Sea 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Greenland Sea 603,416 356,787 -246,629 -162,666 -75,930 -62,983 1,397 8,887 Central Arctic 3,221,921 3,204,775 -17,146 -29,121 1,360 122 15,135 10,794 Hudson Bay 1,260,903 201,636 -1,059,268 -634,988 -264,187 -95,448 -18,124 11,578                   Northern Hemisphere (Total) 14,805,115 7,822,833 -6,982,282 -2,537,040 -837,820 -473,539 -55,865 11,694                   NH (Average Loss per Day)     -58,186 -90,609 -59,844 -67,648 -18,622 11,694

Edited July 27, 2014 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

Second year running Arctic has failed to reach normal Arctic temperatures

Edited July 27, 2014 by keithlucky

[BornFromTheVoid]

• North of 80N isn't the whole Arctic.
• The temperature reached average this summer and last summer for several days, even on the 80N graphs
• The DMI graphs aren't the only source of temperature data for the Arctic
• The summer isn't over yet

 

Why post such silliness?

[Gael_Force]

 

• North of 80N isn't the whole Arctic.
• The temperature reached average this summer and last summer for several days, even on the 80N graphs
• The DMI graphs aren't the only source of temperature data for the Arctic
• The summer isn't over yet

 

Why post such silliness?

 

 

You should really be posing that question to the meteorologist who put this up on twitter.

 

Thanks for the response about the paper I posted on the previous page. I was looking through Google scholar for papers on solar cycle impacts on climate - not easy to spot wheat from chaff I guess.

[keithlucky]

 

• North of 80N isn't the whole Arctic.
• The temperature reached average this summer and last summer for several days, even on the 80N graphs
• The DMI graphs aren't the only source of temperature data for the Arctic
• The summer isn't over yet

 

Why post such silliness?

 

Just showing that there is a possibility that cooling is taking place ,fair enough if you cannot except that but last year was the coldest recorded since records began ,linked to  USA temperatures on a downwards turn ,plus record Antarctic ice are we now seeing signs of a low solar activity is now having a cooling effect in the  hemisphere.

Edited July 27, 2014 by keithlucky

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just showing that there is a possibility that cooling is taking place ,fair enough if you cannot except that but last year was the coldest recorded since records began ,linked to  USA temperatures on a downwards turn ,plus record Antarctic ice are we now seeing signs of a low solar activity is now having a cooling effect in the  hemisphere.

 

But the last 3 months have been the warmest on record globally by most measures. Last year wasn't the coldest since records began in at Arctic (I think that's what you're referring to?). There will always be small regions that exhibit short term cooling trends, but that doesn't mean the planet is cooling.

 

 

You should really be posing that question to the meteorologist who put this up on twitter.

 

Thanks for the response about the paper I posted on the previous page. I was looking through Google scholar for papers on solar cycle impacts on climate - not easy to spot wheat from chaff I guess.

 

True, Joe B has often embarrassed even the main climate "sceptics" with some of the things he's said!

 

From Judith Curry

He is a private sector meteorologist. His clients can judge whether or not he is good at forecasting the weather (he probably does a credible job). However, when it comes to science and climate change, his public statements on the subject imply to me that he does not understand the very basics of the science. His statement regarding carbon dioxide and the first law of thermodynamics is a particular whopper. His only academic credential is a B.S. in Meteorology from Penn State in 1978. Fox News needs to find a more credible spokesperson

http://mediamatters.org/research/2011/08/17/why-is-fox-going-to-joe-bastardi-for-climate-ch/183022

 

I got caught out a few time by papers published in Energy and Environment, so it does take a little while to figure out what the good journals are. Something else to look out for are papers published in journals not directly related to the research topic. Often this allows weak research through as the journal isn't used to dealing with that area of research and may lack the necessary expert reviewers to catch the poor mistakes.

[knocker]

You should really be posing that question to the meteorologist who put this up on twitter.

 

Thanks for the response about the paper I posted on the previous page. I was looking through Google scholar for papers on solar cycle impacts on climate - not easy to spot wheat from chaff I guess.

 

GF.

If you remember there was a huge fuss recently over the journal Pattern Recognition in Physics edited by guess who when Copernicus ceased publication. A brief reminder.

 

http://news.sciencemag.org/physics/2014/01/alleging-malpractice-climate-skeptic-papers-publisher-kills-journal

 

Energy and Environment was also slightly involved along with the potty peer. A complete circus.

 

http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/01/twisting-patterns-of-peer-review.html

Edited July 28, 2014 by knocker

[Gael_Force]

GF.

If you remember there was a huge fuss recently over the journal Pattern Recognition in Physics edited by guess who when Copernicus ceased publication. A brief reminder.

 

http://news.sciencemag.org/physics/2014/01/alleging-malpractice-climate-skeptic-papers-publisher-kills-journal

 

Energy and Environment was also slightly involved along with the potty peer. A complete circus.

 

http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/01/twisting-patterns-of-peer-review.html

 

I don't remember any of that but then my eyes glaze over, brain shuts off when faced with that type of circus - as a writer, been there, done that, etc.

I didn't do science - something I regret - retirement on the internet allows indulgence. I prefer the pure non politicised version , though.

As an aside, interesting snippet in the first link about trial drugs for Ebola.

[cheeky_monkey]

Just showing that there is a possibility that cooling is taking place ,fair enough if you cannot except that but last year was the coldest recorded since records began ,linked to  USA temperatures on a downwards turn ,plus record Antarctic ice are we now seeing signs of a low solar activity is now having a cooling effect in the  hemisphere.

But look how far above average the winter season temperatures are on those graphs..i think they are more concerning and noteworthy than summer temperatures being marginally below normal...all seasons need to be below average to see any significant rebound in artic ice.

[Gray-Wolf]

But this is their thing for folk of the persuasion CM, 2012 was such an exceptional year that the 'odds' of beating it in the following years must be  slim ( or something very,very bad is going on in the Arctic right now!) so they can claim 'recovery' even if the years are top 6 years for low ice?

 

When you look at the reality of ice volume lost , even since the early 80's , you see what a gargantuan feat is needed up there to bring about meaningful recovery?

 

I've always said it will take as long to heal the Arctic as it took to break it and I still feel that way. I did expect 07's record to be challenged as we saw volume ebb away after 07' ( so there was less ice even if extent/area was holding up?) but the 18% less than 07', that 2012 brought us, I did not expect.

 

To me it was a true worry especially when we have the 'perfect melt storm' synoptics known to arrive every 10 to 20 years (  with the past two only having a ten year spacing). The type of export that helped 07' would truly empty large sections of the basin now the ice is so thin ( and so more mobile). We saw the buoy data halve the time for export ,via the transpolar drift, from Pacific side to Atlantic side, through the noughties due to the thinner ice cover so any year with consistent winds in the right direction would not need tropical temps to near empty the basin?

 

With the lack of deep keeled ice and the loss of all the paleo land fast ice we have 'open doors' to all the main exits and no chance of larger 'ice dams' blocking those exits.

Edited July 28, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

Is it too soon to talk about autumn? 

 

To see all the ice go we must see changes across all the seasons that go into the 'ice year'? Just thinking out loud here but what happens if we return to the 80's winter export synoptics? As I posted above the 'exits' are all open and the ice is far more mobile that it ever was so could a stormy Autumn/Winter be the death blow we appear to be waiting for? The figures for extent/area will not show anything other than an above normal ( for the era) amount of ice ( which will result in constant updates from certain quarters!!) but the reality will be the 'best ice' floating out into melt with FY ice infilling?

[stewfox]

Is it too soon to talk about autumn? 

 

To see all the ice go we must see changes across all the seasons that go into the 'ice year'? Just thinking out loud here but what happens if we return to the 80's winter export synoptics? As I posted above the 'exits' are all open and the ice is far more mobile that it ever was so could a stormy Autumn/Winter be the death blow we appear to be waiting for? The figures for extent/area will not show anything other than an above normal ( for the era) amount of ice ( which will result in constant updates from certain quarters!!) but the reality will be the 'best ice' floating out into melt with FY ice infilling?

 

I'm going to wait till August is finished before looking at Autumn

 

However the key driver for me is volume , we are just not seeing much 'recovery' there

 

The DMI has shown for well over 10 years consistent above average temps in the high Arctic

 

If the polar vortex, which traps the cold air in the Arctic keeps buckling maybe -8c becomes the norm and not -28c up there in the winter

 

Interesting article written long before global warming was in vogue

 

http://www.nwas.org/digest/papers/1977/Vol02No4/1977v002no04-Wagner.pdf

Edited July 28, 2014 by stewfox

[knocker]

 

Have to bite the bullet here and discuss my guesses for the September 2014 Arctic sea ice extent average.  The thing which has made them so difficult is that they're so different from each other.  Now, one method I've retired.  It was simply so bad last year that there's no point in continuing it.  That is the one I did based on a population growth (of ice-free area) curve.

http://moregrumbinescience.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/arctic-ice-guesses-2014.html

[knocker]

Haven't had chance t read this yet but looks interesting.

 

Huge waves measured for first time in Arctic Ocean

 

As the climate warms and sea ice retreats, the North is changing. An ice-covered expanse now has a season of increasingly open water which is predicted to extend across the whole Arctic Ocean before the middle of this century. Storms thus have the potential to create Arctic swell – huge waves that could add a new and unpredictable element to the region.

A University of Washington researcher made the first study of waves in the middle of the Arctic Ocean, and detected house-sized waves during a September 2012 storm. The results were recently published in Geophysical Research Letters.

 

http://www.washington.edu/news/2014/07/29/huge-waves-measured-for-first-time-in-arctic-ocean/

[Gray-Wolf]

And this is why I voiced concerns about the decline of the halocline across the basin? We already know that we have enough heat in the Arctic ocean to keep the Basin ice free, year round, but were lacking a mechanism to bring that heat to the surface ( and break through the halocline).

 

We now , due to low ice thickness/poor ice integrity , seem to have now entered an era where Autumn storms can begin to release this deep stored heat back to the surface?

 

It seems Ocean heat is a problem for both poles?

[keithlucky]

The amount of Arctic ice over 1 meter thickness has grown 18% over the last 2 yrs .Green shows ice gain red shows ice loss http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arc_list_arcticictn.html

[4wd]

And this is why I voiced concerns about the decline of the halocline across the basin? We already know that we have enough heat in the Arctic ocean to keep the Basin ice free, year round, but were lacking a mechanism to bring that heat to the surface ( and break through the halocline).

 

We now , due to low ice thickness/poor ice integrity , seem to have now entered an era where Autumn storms can begin to release this deep stored heat back to the surface?

 

It seems Ocean heat is a problem for both poles?

So Ocean heat is making Antarctic ice grow to record levels, and causing an 18% growth in thicker Arctic Ice. 

 

We already know

Very little is known, some groups like to claim otherwise from a political perspective. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

So Ocean heat is making Antarctic ice grow to record levels, and causing an 18% growth in thicker Arctic Ice. 

Very little is known, some groups like to claim otherwise from a political perspective. 

 

He said the ocean heat hasn't fully managed to break through the halocline yet. Various pieces of research and scientific organisations have discussed the impact of ocean heat on Antarctic ice shelves. Have you something to dispute that? With regard to Arctic ice thickness, 1 year does not a trend make.

 

It's seems only yourself that likes to bring politics into every scientific discussion, apparently in lieu of data or reasoned analysis.

[stewfox]

 

 

 

Its pleasing to see how the ice has held up in the west this year and remains at 2m thick cf last year where we had open water in the west as per 2012 as well

 

Given the high arctic has had below average temps last 100 days not unexpected

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

 

 

 

Edited July 31, 2014 by stewfox