Scotland & The Far North Of England Regional Weather Chat

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Very warm and windy currently. Rain on and off but ground is dry because of the warmth.

[NorthernRab]

Very warm and windy currently. Rain on and off but ground is dry because of the warmth.

 

Enjoy that while it lasts, incoming from the north! 

[Buriedundersnow]

well it was all downhill today starting cloudy then the winds picked up and been raining on and off for a while but the polmont station down the road still got to 20.4c so at least it didn't feel cold.

 

that's the gardening off now till it settles down trying to put membrane down for chippings is a real pain in the back side with that wind so gave up and not even going to attempt it again till the wind drops off got really sick of chasing things round the garden.

[Hawesy]

Non-descript sort of day - not untypical in a Scottish summer! Mostly cloudy, 18c. WSWly breeze but not as windy as yesterday.

[Buriedundersnow]

We went to the coast again yesterday, it was warmest right at the coast according to the car thermometer at a very respectable 21ºC. Even in the wind and with cloud cover it was very pleasant on the beach, which is unusual. I think it might be more of the same over this side of the country in the next few days, the rain doesn't look like it will be too bad here tomorrow, but I've said that before and ended up half-drowned.

 

 

yeah east was definitely best yesterday it started to go downhill here mid afternoon and this might seem like a really weird thing to say living in Scotland but it felt a little creepy last night with it being so dull and dark from around 8-9 onwards but that may just go to say something about the decent weather we have had and how bright it has been right up till last light most of the time.

 

you know you have just cursed yourself now and tomorrow you will see all of the heaviest bursts as the front works through lol.

Edited July 3, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

EUMETSAT satellite video of this spring and you can see the Spanish plumes and the storms that went off across the continent

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwTebmF0t70&feature=youtu.be

Edited July 3, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[SW Saltire]

Better day than yesterday, 21c, mainly cloudy with a little wind. Yesterday only reached 17c before it rained lightly all evening

[Buriedundersnow]

been taking a good look through the models and if you remember I did a post a couple of days ago about the CPC 500mb charts and the chance of  getting an easterly and tapping into the heat that is due to build over eastern Europe, Scandinavia and western Russia it will still be there a page or two back.

 

I think the models might be trying to sort the pattern out but its one of they situations where ECM and GFS are better in different areas which I will show but first to the CPC 500mb charts and the 6-10 day chart is starting to make its way along nicely and the 8-14 day chart still shows a continuation to what the pattern was showing the other day with us picking up an easterly flow

 

 

now again the 8-14 day chart looks to be along the lines of the GFS 500mb and 700mb at day 11

 

 

now if we move onto the models at 168hr and the ECM has the high over Scandinavia getting in the right position with the low pressure over Iceland ready to work its way over us into Europe and the high in the atlantic looking good to link into Greenland to go how the CPC are looking towards

 

 

now the GFS at same time looks worse over Scandinavia slightly better in the atlantic and also has the low pressure over Iceland ready to drop down

 

 

now we move onto the ECM at 192hr and goes a bit wrong and doesn't drop the low pressure over Iceland and the atlantic high link with Greenland gets destroyed which if we were to go along the CPC thinking would be totally wrong.

 

 

now the GFS at 192hr starts to drop the low pressure over Iceland and the atlantic link up to Greenland looks far better and along the lines of the CPC thinking but again not so good over Scandinavia with the high pressure

 

 

looks like they might be trying to work something out and we will just have to wait and see if we can get there and pick up an easterly flow as we can see on both models the uppers are fairly good over there in that timeframe

 

ECM

 

 

GFS

 

 

now if the pattern works out like that we may have to put up with another low pressure working over us but this would be good in the long run as it would help advect more warm air up into the area we are wanting the warmth to build for this pattern.

 

and if we were to get there with the pattern then the GFS 2m temp charts show just what we have to tap into and with temps like that I wouldn't bet against the possibility of maybe getting close to or above 30c somewhere.

 

 

now as I stated in the other post a couple of days ago it can still all end up with nothing and go another way and hurricane Arthur could cause some problems as tropical developments seem to do but the models do seem to be trying to look toward something and an easterly would be good for the heat over there but even a big high pressure just slap bang over us would do as a second prize just get rid of the low pressures.

Edited July 3, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[blitzen]

Erm.....Where's the rain? I expected to wake up to a splish splosh sort of day.   Wet out west but doesn't look to be making it over here? The heavens will probably open now that I've typed this! 16.1c with the sun trying hard to make an appearance.

Edited July 4, 2014 by Blitzen

[blitzen]

The rain will start moving east when the fronts move through, that's orographic uplift going on at the moment. It should start moving east soon

Thanks Catch....you just shattered my illusions!

[NorthernRab]

Bit over 22'C in the back garden, dry, cloudy with occasional bursts of sunshine - a nice morning before this afternoon's deluge, hills and mountains to the west and south have kept it at bay so far!

[SW Saltire]

Horrible, horrible day. 15c, windy with moderate 'wetting' rain. It's kind of like heavy drizzle out there, just awful.

Only positive is the fact that hayfever is much reduced today

[Buriedundersnow]

been quite dull here all day with rain on and off not the summer weather we are hoping for but at least the grass is getting a bit of a water.

 

found a new weather station online and will be able to give better temps for my location as its only about 1/4 of a mile away from here and it says its a personal weather station so must be one that someone has linked to run online as it only holds daily records from 1999 it says I'm at 18.7c but managed to get as high as 19c and yesterday it got to 22.1c.

[SW Saltire]

Around 10c lower than 3 days ago. Still persistently raining...

Going to be dark fairly early tonight

[SW Saltire]

I get the same from an easterly so SE/E/NE are better in summer = drier, sunnier ie June 2014 but in winter cold and dry. No real snow reaches us, certainly in comparison to some

Edited July 4, 2014 by SW Saltire

[damianslaw]

Oh dear a miserable summers day here. Persistant rain since mid morning heavy on occasion and low grey skies and maxima held at 15 degrees - very unsummery..

[Buriedundersnow]

well the charts say it all once you move towards wetter days the east certainly doesn't accept the fronts coming in compared to the west

 

 

east does certainly do better for sunshine but you do pretty good in the south west as well SW

 

 

and like you say SW you don't do too well when it comes to snow compared to the eastern side but CATCH you will be praying for a big Greenland high and a northeast when you see the bowl you ae in that set up could leave you like my username.

 

 

CATCH just type in kelso weather station and see what comes up the site I used to find the one I just found type in wunderground personal weather stations

 

 

[Buriedundersnow]

here CATCH I found you a kelso one

 

http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:00000.7.03158

 

I don't think its right in kelso if you click the change station it shows you where the stations around are located

Edited July 4, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[SW Saltire]

Thanks for the charts BUS.

March 21st 2013 (stalling front) is nirvana for my location.

At least my location is usually clear in an easterly and thus very cold in a cold spell unlike say the island of Skye or Ayr etc.

Also, cold westerlys always bring something just usually it's sleet.

Elevation and proximity to the coast are huge factors (as the graphics show).

10-15 miles to my south at the Solway firth, snow is fairly rare or rather it falls but doesn't stick or last long.

15 miles to my north - the southern uplands - obviously very cold, can snow in late October on the pass. Snow tires are usually needed at some point. That 2-3c change in temperature makes such a difference.

Even in a very poor winter like last, 2/3c colder and if have seen widespread lying snow, a lot of marginal sleet days occurred. Even in better winters, on the coast to my south it's too marginal.

It's the roller coaster 99% of us ride in the British isles... Even the Cairngorms aren't guaranteed loads of snow and -15 every winter when at our latitude it really should be

[Buriedundersnow]

do you mean this one

 

 

and of course this one was pretty good for most of us through the central belt unless you were on the M-8

 

Edited July 4, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[SW Saltire]

Yep, buried the Isle of Arran. I had around 18 inches (45cm) of lying snow although it had drifted so was hard to exactly tell. Huge 5/6/7 feet drifts at times, one for the memories as it was after the equinox and lasted about 10 days. With drifts lasting 2/3 weeks.

I have photos of 5ft of lying snow (used to live at about 1,000ft on the north east side of Dumfries - now the west at about 30ft haha) but it only lasted a couple of days. Down in the town it was only 6-12 inches.

Some time either before of just after I was born circa 1995 but give or take 3 years. Must have been a front grinding to a halt with cold air undercutting.

Great when it comes off but agonising as the models update and say it isn't going to reach you like earlier in the 2012-13 winter. Or to much and it's snow which turns to rain

Edited July 4, 2014 by SW Saltire

[Buriedundersnow]

I cant find anything from back in the 90's but I am sure there is bount to be somewhere to find them I'm always looking for things like that so I am sure I will come along them sooner or later

 

heres some satellite views of stalled front march 2013 try finding the uk in the third one lol

 

 

and heres some views of the December 2010 stalled front

 

[SW Saltire]

BUS, any near Dumfries? It's just (I do have my own but I want a second opinion for accuracy) Eskdalemuir is significantly east of here and at about 600ft I think so hardly representative of me.

Thanks Catch, I'll check

[Buriedundersnow]

this is all I could find the now SW but i'll see what else I can find

 

http://classic.wunderground.com/global/stations/03154.html#PWS

 

EDIT: try this link for it its the same station but you can hit the change station and see the others theres one right up the hills that shows a lot colder but there isn't many in that area

 

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/UK/Dumfries.html

Edited July 4, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

 

(and SW): try February 5th-6th (ish) 1996. There was a huge dump of snow in parts of the west and particularly the SW of Scotland.

 

 

 

was that the time they had parts of the west on the news with snow nearly cover goal posts on playing fields and that.