Ireland Regional Weather Chat

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

3rd heavy shower of the day here! Nervously waiting on my MSc results...

Well Born hope you did well buddy good luck

[BornFromTheVoid]

Well Born hope you did well buddy good luck

 

Cheers, but I checked online a short while ago and they're out on the 24th, not the 14th

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Lol sure you may hit the pub to console yourself

[ronan]

Can someone give their thoughts on what's happening with the models at the minute. So much chopping and changing! Personally i couldn't give 2 hoots about an easterly but the model thread suggests that this is the only set up most are interested in. Personally i would prefer and full blown northerly/north easterly or something from the north west even though these can be short lived but we normally do well from them. I have to admit something seems to be brewing but i haven't a notion where we will end up! Lol

[BornFromTheVoid]

Can someone give their thoughts on what's happening with the models at the minute. So much chopping and changing! Personally i couldn't give 2 hoots about an easterly but the model thread suggests that this is the only set up most are interested in. Personally i would prefer and full blown northerly/north easterly or something from the north west even though these can be short lived but we normally do well from them. I have to admit something seems to be brewing but i haven't a notion where we will end up! Lol

 

I haven't been following the MOD thread for a number of months, but I still check the models regularly. From what I've seen, the ECM and PGFS have been showing plenty of easterly flows over the next week. The problem is that the air over Europe is coming up from the Mediterranean, so it's still very mild there, which will give us just mild east/souteast winds and fronts coming up from the south.

No noteworthy cold has appeared in the somewhat reliable timeframe yet (144-168hrs), so I'd guess that the last week of this month, though most likely December, is the earliest we could hope for a good cold spell.

 

 

Lol sure you may hit the pub to console yourself 

 

 

Just throwing a few beers in the fridge

Edited November 14, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[ronan]

Thats great Born. Cheers for your thoughts. I would love a good cold spell around Xmas. Just to make it feel festive.

[sundog]

I  suppose on the MOD thread we will see the will it wont it move west debate as regards thye block to the NE,same old s*ite most yrs now. I think those blocks are often more hassle then anything else if you want cold. Granted they are in a better position in the UK being that bit further east but still that debate just gets on my nerves in the MOD thread.

 

Personnally i think we wont get a proper chance of a decent cold spell until the second half of Dec.

Edited November 14, 2014 by sundog

[ronan]

There's no harm in getting an easterly but often its only south eastern parts of the province and down towards Dublin/Wicklow that benefits due to streamers forming over the Irish Sea. I'm sure some of you folk remember well 2 years ago. Especially those down around the Castlereagh Hills. I was green with envy!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Indeed Ronan easterly is no good to us westies, as you say give me a northerly be it straight east or west any day of the week

[stormforce 10]

3rd heavy shower of the day here! Nervously waiting on my MSc results...

you back in tip void?

[Baltic Regions]

 Boyso!!

 

Had to go to enniskillen today. With all the flooding it looked like fermanagh wastaken over down and antrim.

[ronan]

Nice to see the weather settled down a bit. Just read this in the model thread. Love seeing posts like this from the more respected members and i hope he's right!

 

 

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Cumulonimbus

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Posted 11 minutes ago

Typing up my LRF final version as wanted to see last developments to top and tail.   Models now getting very interesting, GFS 12z come on...how close? 

 

Big Steve's commentary, I'm onside....a BIG switch is coming and we won't have to wait until Christmas either, indeed get ready for winter!  Coz I tell you what......I think its coming big style.

 

BFTP

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Those are the kinda posts that makes u sit up,lol, hopefully it will come to pass I admire anyone that puts their neck on the line be it for mild or cold

[ronan]

There is definitely something happening. I really don't have a clue what it is but there is. Lol

[ronan]

I take it this would result in a northerly set up?

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just remember, some of the most popular and respected posters are the big cold rampers in winter! They're not necessarily the most accurate!

The models are still not showing anything snowy or especially cold in anything near the reliable time frame, yet.

 

With a weak vortex and a strong warming event likely soon, there is plenty of potential for wintry weather as we cross into December, but nothing arriving soon.

 

 

you back in tip void?

 

Yep, short term (hopefully) while I'm applying for PhDs.

[stormforce 10]

Just remember, some of the most popular and respected posters are the big cold rampers in winter! They're not necessarily the most accurate!

The models are still not showing anything snowy or especially cold in anything near the reliable time frame, yet.

 

With a weak vortex and a strong warming event likely soon, there is plenty of potential for wintry weather as we cross into December, but nothing arriving soon.

 

 

 

Yep, short term (hopefully) while I'm applying for PhDs.

good man enjoy the break and hopefully tip gets a bit of snow this winter.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A different take on the precip graph I posted recently, and updated to the 15th of this month.

 

 

So 9 of the 25 stations have no passed their annual average precip. Using the average of all stations (except those that haven't reported their November data), we've record 99% of the average annual rainfall so far this year.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Quite a pleasant and mild day, have to say prefer that over the recent wetness

[stormforce 10]

lovely weekend here weatherwise, kind of makes up for the deluge we received this week.

[mountain shadow]

Model output rather tedious at the moment whilst we wait and hope that wave activity on the Polar Vortex delivers.

 

Seems likely now that we are at least a month away from any snow and ice.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Well at least it would be seasonable then Mountain

[ronan]

All hope not lost in the model output yet but to be honest it's getting a bit boring now! I would say we are still a long way off any cold spell. The models just seem stuck at the minute with no clear way to cold. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Nice and sunny here for the last 90 mins after a wet start. Just 9mm from the rain overnight, not as much as expected.

[ronan]

This lake effect snow is unreal!! Up to 5 inches falling per hour for a constant 24 hours!! Amazing and very localised. From 60 inches to 3.5 inches within 6 miles!

 

http://www.buffalonews.com/city-region/winter/five-dead-as-monster-storm-dumps-historic-amount-of-snow-20141119