Ireland Regional Weather Chat

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

It wouldn't be hard Ronan it's strange the amount of long range forecasts going for a mild wet winter, the feel for me (unscientific) is that we will see something a lot more seasonal, reading the likes of S Murr and Chino is encouraging

[ronan]

Yeah your right. I see that Mountain Shadow is posting away on the OPI thread etc. Would be good if he could come on here and give us a brief paragraph on his thoughts for the coming month.

[BIG LAD]

can also confirm seeing sleet on car windscreen today in clogher valley. had a feeling the sperrins might see snow and im delighted they got some.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

I knew I wasn't going mad big lad

[sundog]

First single digit max temp of the season here today,max temp of 8.9c,my first single digit max temp last year was also on Nov 3rd.

[stormforce 10]

First single digit max temp of the season here today,max temp of 8.9c,my first single digit max temp last year was also on Nov 3rd.

i hope thats not a bad omen sundog, we all know what happened last winter.

[sundog]

i hope thats not a bad omen sundog, we all know what happened last winter.

Yes i hope thats not a bad omen either!

Im kind of in two minds about this winter. What with all the warmth we have had since summer 2013 im a bit worried that this overall warmth will continue for a few months yet and that coupled with most of the long range models going for a mild winter atm,they must be picking up on some signal.

 

On the other hand there are background factors of course that suggest a cold winter could be on the cards not that im an expert on teleconnections but things like the SAI and the OPI looks like the final figure that will be released looks like being strongly negative. The QBO is in its negative phase,probably weak El Nino over the winter and the PV has been very slow to get organised so far this Autumn.

 

Whatever happens it sure will be very interesting to see how it all pans out,but we will surely get a better one then last yr.

[stormforce 10]

Yes i hope thats not a bad omen either!

Im kind of in two minds about this winter. What with all the warmth we have had since summer 2013 im a bit worried that this overall warmth will continue for a few months yet and that coupled with most of the long range models going for a mild winter atm,they must be picking up on some signal.

 

On the other hand there are background factors of course that suggest a cold winter could be on the cards not that im an expert on teleconnections but things like the SAI and the OPI looks like the final figure that will be released looks like being strongly negative. The QBO is in its negative phase,probably weak El Nino over the winter and the PV has been very slow to get organised so far this Autumn.

 

Whatever happens it sure will be very interesting to see how it all pans out,but we will surely get a better one then last yr.

just look at this way sundog, it has to be better this winter cause it couldny be any worse than last winter.

[ronan]

This is a lovely chart!! If charts like this start to verify and pop up more then its game on!

 

[gary1365]

Back to warmer weather today slightly disappointing. Don't know how accurate my car thermometer is but I saw 3 degrees on it yesterday and Sleat on the windscreen Here's hoping it's a good sign for winter

[gary1365]

Nice to see another decently cool morning but still no frost

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Indeed gary it's the same here. Not to worry we appear to have all the right blocks building for interesting weather, early December may be a safe punt on reading the likes of S Murr

[jules216]

what a nice sunny cold day, give me northerly any day this winter very useful for outdoor activity, really cant stand windy showery days like last year, such a pity that we do not get enough northerlies these days, they are rare as hens teeth

[sundog]

what a nice sunny cold day, give me northerly any day this winter very useful for outdoor activity, really cant stand windy showery days like last year, such a pity that we do not get enough northerlies these days, they are rare as hens teeth

Yes i agree,a northerly is my fav wind direction especially during winter,love the clear fresh air they often give. Sadly the last few winters have seen very few northerlies i really would love that to change this coming winter.

[sundog]

I could be wrong but i think our old friend frostyjoe,smithyweather etc etc is back. You can almost tell by his one and only post so far which was on the MOD (straight  to the point ,direct type of posting) that it could be him. Owen Cummins. A number of yrs ago i think he used to post on weatherboards under the name of Owen C. Its at about this time of yr that our friend makes his return until he gets banned again some weeks later lol.

Edited November 5, 2014 by sundog

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Was wondering if he would raise his head again sundog, we will have to keep an eye out for that one. anyway what a rotten morning proper autumn fare I suppose

[ronan]

It has to be him!!!! His normal arrogant posts!!

 

Posted 28 minutes ago

Steve Murr, on 06 Nov 2014 - 12:17, said:

Good Morning All-

 

Stayed away for a couple of days - I see no change in what I presented 2 days ago despite some saying that it was just a hopecast.

 

The NH pattern from the long range GFS ensembles have got it wrong trying to overun the whole pattern & exit the -AO pattern very quickly. This is standard fair for the GFS & why myself & generally the NOAA / CPC generally discount it....

 

For the UK whilst the flow may appear from the atlantic the surface temps will remain supressed with generally lower heights & polar air catching up the stalled fronts.

 

Post that ECM still the best fit-

http://www.meteociel...1-168.GIF?06-12

 

Remember up to 2 /3 days ago people still posting the GFS ensemble mean showing the whole pattern not shifting for 2 weeks -

 

The GFS control feels out a best fit ( relative to what I presented so have a browse....)

http://www.meteociel...&carte=1&mode=0

 

Higher heights being sucked towards Greenland from the lower central part Scandi the Warm air gradually being sucked out.

 

If we look where the residual heights are left they support a block somewhere close to Svalbard - maybe a tadge further west for an east based NAO or a tadge east feeding in very cold air to Europe.

 

At no point have I said the UK will get very cold, however the general pattern ( earmarked to change around the 14th-16th) will start sucking the warmth out of Europe.

 

Watch out for some possible snow for Scotland Monday......

 

S

Snow on high ground?? Can't see where. 

 

 

Snow in NI to lowish levels the other day but was forecast. 

Edited by Owen Cummins, 25 minutes ago.

[ronan]

Some tasty looking charts from the 12z today with most models tending to agree.  If wee can just keep the trend going and hopefully we can end November with something on par with 2009.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Plenty of rain here today. Went for a walk out around 3pm and there was already a fair amount of flooding about, yet the rain has been at its heaviest in the last hour or so, and there's plenty more to come tonight.

Edited November 6, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[gary1365]

sounds like frosty joe anyway lol.

 

I'm divided over this winter 1 part of me loves the cold and the snow and wants a fantastic winter then there's the boring sensible part of me wants a mild 1 as i drive over the coleraine mountain 5 days a week, aye it was a wet one today alright

Edited November 6, 2014 by gary1365

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Yup that's Frosty alright Ronan. I hear what you are saying Gary kinda two minds myself but love the hype and search for it. That said I don't let small things like no snow get me down or annoy me, I have an ex wife for that

Indeed Born a lot of flooding today, the kind of weather I hate, mild grey and wet

[ronan]

Lol Pomeroy don't get me started on ex wives. I split with mines nearly a year ago. Best thing that ever happened. Lol. Hoping for more of the same building block charts on the pub run tonight. If things keep going the way they are then we are certainly in the firing line for a cold end of month.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Me too Ronan such is life!! Serious flooding on the roads tonight folk's take it easy out there

[ronan]

The Foyle Road has been closed in Derry and the river has come over its banks at Culmore which doesn't happen at all!! This is the scene at Foyle Road now.......

 

 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Jez that's unreal Ronan