Ireland Regional Weather Chat

[ronan]

Am just back from doing the photos in a few of the clubs in Derry and it was definitely cold walking in to the town earlier! Pom an oul Derry woman would have fairly warmed you up tonight. Lol

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Lol don't talk Ronan was a real damp cold if you know what I mean, car temp on way home was 1 degree but no frost

[stormforce 10]

was also out in the town last night and it certainly was cool. charts still lokking good for a cold spell later in the month hopefully.

[be cause]

strangely, I found ice on an electric cable lying on grass at 4 .30 pm yesterday . Nearby a just arrived car was reading 8'C . there was no ice on the grass .. any idea how ?

[stormforce 10]

strangely, I found ice on an electric cable lying on grass at 4 .30 pm yesterday . Nearby a just arrived car was reading 8'C . there was no ice on the grass .. any idea how ?

sorry absolutely no idea on that one.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Not a clue because!!!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Plenty of rain and a howling wind today, no mistaking the season!

[sundog]

As much as i lke this time of yr,it must be said that Nov can often be a bit of a miserable month,mild,cloudy,dull and rather wet quite often sums up the month overall.

i just hope the buliding blocks for a potential cold spell further down the line continue to build slowly but surely as the month goes on so by sometime next month we will get some very decent cold weather or if we are lucky maybe something at the end of this month.

Edited November 10, 2014 by sundog

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

I stained glass windowing hate November I hate the greyness of it, the dampness that gets deep into your bones the dark nights the unproper cold that doesn't even have the decency to be a frost just damp damp damp :@

[jules216]

second that, absolutely miserable day here, you cant say its even mild, 8 degrees at max so heating still on, no sun to warm the house and wind creating draft, can say only 2 months this year have been ok, july and september, only rest we get is between two weather fronts which last a day and a half max, part of to blame now is the sceuro high which stalls the low preasures at our shores if we get winter like last ill consider emigrating

Edited November 10, 2014 by jules216

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Think I will form the anti November club lol, down with this sort of thing

[BornFromTheVoid]

I enjoyed the weather today, I even think November has been ok so far. I like the gradual cooling down, the anticipation of the first wintry charts, the spells of heavy rain followed by the crisp, cold, fresh air. Anyone else... no?
 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Lol nah just you Born

[Rocheydub]

I enjoyed the weather today, I even think November has been ok so far. I like the gradual cooling down, the anticipation of the first wintry charts, the spells of heavy rain followed by the crisp, cold, fresh air. Anyone else... no?

 

I'm with you on that brother!!!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Opi forecast looking good be interesting to see how it pans out come the spring

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

A dank grey foggy dreary day, enjoy it if you like this kinda weather, personally pass me the prosaic

[BornFromTheVoid]

A dank grey foggy dreary day, enjoy it if you like this kinda weather, personally pass me the prosaic

 

Tis a bit boring, if it's going to rain it should at least be heavy.

[mountain shadow]

Pouring down again.

 

The general conscenus appears to be we will get a very wet 6 weeks or so with the cold and snow arriving around the end of December.

 

Fingers crossed.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Just in time for Christmas MS...... Anyway I never take the model thread to serious to much of a south east England bias in my humble v opinion....

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just using years with a similar MEI and QBO, I posted this chart last month as a simple test to see if those 2 factors could predict November with any accuracy.

 

 

Doesn't seem too inaccurate so far, compared to the first 7 days of the month

 

Still plenty of time for it to go ar*e ways though!

 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Lol what's your thoughts now Born what do you make of this OPI thingy???

By the way we have your heavy rain showers you were longing for, feel free to take them down your way

[BornFromTheVoid]

Lol what's your thoughts now Born what do you make of this OPI thingy???

By the way we have your heavy rain showers you were longing for, feel free to take them down your way

 

The OPI didn't work out so well last winter, which was it's first actual forecast. I'd put more faith in the SAI index for now, as at least it has passed peer review. The OPI seems to have been stuck in the peer review process for about a year now, which ain't a good sign. That's not to say the OPI should be dismissed entirely, just that it almost certainly will not have as high a correlation with the AO when used as a predictor, compared to their hindcast correlations.

 

Even using the same dates I used for the November map earlier, a potentially very cold winter pattern emerges, quite similar to the OPI forecast actually!

 

......MEI and QBO winter...... ........... ...... ........... OPI winter forecast

 

 

 

 

I'll call the showers down here after I've walked the dog this evening!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Well to be fair the heavy showers helped me with the power washing, thanks for your input Born it's always interesting to get yours and other valued members input into our wee thread gives us a chance to see the wood for the trees

[mountain shadow]

I think the OPI only really works at the extremes of it scale.

This years OPI was extreme so a high probability of at least two winter months with a -nao

[sundog]

^^^^^^^

Yes the correlation does not seem to be as strong with weakly positive or negative figures.

 

 

I know people say that the index didnt really work out for last winter but at +1.65 we did get a mild winter in the end anyway. Is it that the AO itself was not really positive last winter? So as regards last winter being mild was the strongly positive index just a bit of a fluke?