Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

[summer blizzard]

Regarding next weekend still no 500mb anomaly conformity between the GFs and ECM.

 

The latter has weakish warm zones running Canada around to Scandinavia and Russia with a warm pool in the eastern Atlantic covering the UK. with a cold trough mid Atlantic. This allows high Pressure to build in the Atlantic and the east over the UK with an isolated low stuck south east  of Greenland. Temps in the UK hovering around the 70s.

 

The problem is again over the Arctic. You can see on your last chart that the GEFS has a more organized vortex which with the slow jet promotes the Azores High to build in and would eventually kill the high over Greenland probably. One imagines looking at the day 10 Euro that the Arctic vortex is less organised.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Unsettled GFS 18z in the mid term

 

[summer blizzard]

GFS18z more progressive with the low pressure and a bit of a halfway house between the Euro and GEM at day 8.

 

[bluearmy]

been an interesting week of watching and the main message to take from it is the ops touted the drop in scandi heights week 2 whilst the ens and anomolys persisted with it. As usual, the detail on the ops was not great at that range but its a good lesson in how the ops are able to pick out an fi pattern change of sorts but poor at resolving it clearly. The ens were good at predicting the rise in heights to our south though it appears this may trend a bit west in tandem with the lowering of heights to our ne.

[knocker]

Continuing looking at what the next weekend has in store with the GFS.

 

The 500mb upper anomaly has a deep pool of cold air over the Arctic with, very significantly, a trough down through Scandinavia. Another cold pool Atlantic with warm areas Greenland and Europe. Doesn’t bode well.

 

Surface analysis for  Friday through Sunday.

 

Friday

 

Low 1002mb over Norway with a trough stretching into the UK giving a general SE flow. High 1029mb to the SW. Temps cool in west low to mid 60s in east.

 

Saturday

 

Low now east Baltic 996mb with the area of high pressure west of the UK now taken over the influence bringing northerly winds. Because of the origin of the airflow not particular warm, in fact decidedly chilly in the east and thermals the order of the day at Skeggy.

 

Sunday

 

Much the same scenario as Saturday with the winds now more NE but the extreme east may just come under the influence of the low to the east. Strong SES winds in the North Sea as a bit of a squeeze between the low and high pressure

 

Forgot to add the jet is quite insignificant.

Edited June 7, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

The upper air from the ECM is not dissimilar to the GFS except it doesn't extend the trough down through Scandinavia.

 

Thus it doesn't develop the low pressure  over Scandinavia to the same extent and the UK is is dominated by the HP extending from the SW.

Edited June 7, 2014 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Models are showing some unsettled/cool weather for the time of year, With my slack Northerly still showing around the 13/14th, Especially towards the end of the run, With bouts of rain/showers blowing in on a Westerly off the Atlantic. Iceland may get a bit of the white stuff   

 

Edited June 7, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[summer blizzard]

GFS coming round to previous gem runs although all 3 models at day 8 are different in how progressive they are this morning.

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM continues to show a steady rise in pressure during next week unlike GFS it says no to a northerly

 

 

UKMO also shows a slow rise in pressure during next week as things begin to settle down after a showery start to the week for many these will gradually become confined further north with time as pressure rises from the south

 

 

By Friday 13th it turns fresher in the north but the south hangs on to the warmth

 

Edited June 7, 2014 by Summer Sun

[damianslaw]

No sign of a sustained settled spell of weather for the foreseeable future, we have quite a slack set up with neither the atlantic or the azores/euro ridge seemingly able to exert enough power to cancel each other out. The result most likely a showery airstream early next week. There are signs the azores high will try to ridge NE into southern parts by the end of next week, but all the time lower heights look like developing over scandi which will quickly force such heights back westwards leaving much of the country exposed to a northerly showery airstream - GFS has latched onto this evolution for a while and a plausible one to boot.

 

A topsy turvy start to summer it seems, these is traditionally a transitional period, before the atlantic slumbers into its summer state - will the azores high gain the upper hand this year or the atlantic win out? - who knows, but the battle has started.

[Milhouse]

GFS coming round to previous gem runs although all 3 models at day 8 are different in how progressive they are this morning.

 

 

And now the GEM has high pressure firmly in charge instead so plenty of opportunity for changes to occur towards a warmer more settled outcome. Meanwhile the upcoming week looks mixed but it will continue warm.

 

[Milhouse]

UKMO showing some signs that a longer settled spell may develop in the not too distant future with low pressure in the Atlantic looking in no hurry to affect the UK. Its a fine balance though as the lowering heights over Scandinavia do promote some sort of northerly airstream. Its a question of whether and how quickly high pressure can push far enough eastwards to cut off the cool flow and maintain some pleasant summery conditions like what GEM is showing.

[Iceaxecrampon]

UKMO showing some signs that a longer settled spell may develop in the not too distant future with low pressure in the Atlantic looking in no hurry to affect the UK. Its a fine balance though as the lowering heights over Scandinavia do promote some sort of northerly airstream. Its a question of whether and how quickly high pressure can push far enough eastwards to cut off the cool flow and maintain some pleasant summery conditions like what GEM is showing.

 

Agreed - all eyes on the Jet - seems to be a stalemate as mentioned with the Azores and Atlantic weighing each other up. Its 2 weeks to solstice though and the height of the solar strength.

 

See you at Stonehenge.

 

Ian

[bluearmy]

Damian uses the word 'slack'.

Looking through the London ECM ens graph reveals that this Tuesday is likely to be the breeziest in the next fortnight in the se. Slack might be overdoing it!

That's got to mean any drop off in slp will allow some quite potent showers to build along convergence zones.

[summer blizzard]

And now the GEM has high pressure firmly in charge instead so plenty of opportunity for changes to occur towards a warmer more settled outcome. Meanwhile the upcoming week looks mixed but it will continue warm.

 

At day 8 Gem is still taking in cool uppers even if settled.

Its after that it digresses.

[mushymanrob]

the anomaly charts firm up now on what they think lies ahead, and they dont agree... im suggesting though that these two options are the extreme of what might evolve later in the week.but which run will be nearer the mark?  a strong block to our northwest (as per the gfs)  might send the all important jet on a southerly track  = bad news,  a high centred closer to our south (ecm) would send the jet further north = good news.

 

 

une things for certain, theres no retrogressing high from our east.

Edited June 7, 2014 by mushymanrob

[draztik]

We have a positive anomaly for the UK in terms of temperature over the next 5 days or so. Thereafter gefs trending cooler,

Temp anom. Days 7-12

[johnholmes]

the anomaly charts firm up now on what they think lies ahead, and they dont agree... im suggesting though that these two options are the extreme of what might evolve later in the week.

but which run will be nearer the mark?  a strong block to our northwest (as per the gfs)  might send the all important jet on a southerly track  = bad news,  a high centred closer to our south (ecm) would send the jet further north = good news.

 

stand off.gif

 

une things for certain, theres no retrogressing high from our east.

 

the EC version is the closest to the NOAA 6-10 so is perhaps more likely to validate than the GFS version. That would also be my take on closely watching all 3 every day.

[Captain Shortwave]

Confidence is still quite low for next week, the difference between the 06z and 12z GFS are stark even at 4/5 days out. Still this would be very nice.

[Milhouse]

Much nicer from the GFS 12z this evening, took me rather by suprise i must admit. A much more robust high bringing more widespread warm and settled weather to end the week.

 

[Milhouse]

Sadly the UKMO sticks with the northerly outcome but on the plus side look at all the high pressure waiting in the wings out to the west.

 

[Summer Sun]

A decent start to UKMO but t144 shows the low to our east moving in on this run a similar idea to GEM this time yesterday

 

 

Even with a northerly flow at t144 the 850's remain fairly high for most

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Looks like it's the ECM/GFS vs the UKMO/GEM tonight ECM suggesting a decent end to the week.

 

Not too surprised to see the influence of the Scandi trough reduce somewhat.

Edited June 7, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

At t144 we still have big differences between ECM and UKMO

 

ECM has high pressure over the UK where as UKMO now has low pressure coming in from the east

 

 

Unsurprisingly ECM is much warmer with the high over us

 

 

Take your pick who will be right its GFS and ECM v UKMO and GEM

 

Nice run from ECM settled and pleasantly warm

 

Edited June 7, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

A better ridge of high pressure on the ECM too so, despite my initial surprise at seeing the GFS, it has some support.

 

Edited June 7, 2014 by Milhouse