Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

[Man With Beard]

Dry, sunny and warm. Everybody's happy

Temperatures would be rising to end the week, getting into the high twenties in the south

This is the point for me, it's not "will it be hot on this day or that day", for me it's that the trough isn't going to win. Both ECM and GFS showing pressure building after T168 which, let's not forget, was shown on the GFS ensembles 6 days ago. Edited June 4, 2014 by rjbw

[knocker]

Some semblance of order re the 500mb anomaly end of next week but the GFS Scandinavian high does extend further south west,

with high pressure in the ascendency by the end of week.

 

My reading of the ECM is that the warm air does eventually move into the UK from the SW with an anticyclone forming from the Azores ridge with temps in the upper 20s by Friday. I'm not taking any bets,

Edited June 4, 2014 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble starting to look more positive for a pressure rise during next week

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Certainly trending warm and fairly settled into week 2, ECM ens similar to the GFS in that respect so some reasonable confidence in heights building north east during the middle of next week.

Interestingly the ECM op was a little cooler than the mean for the start of next week. I think there is still scope to pull something more significant up from the continent, even if it is brief. Again how much heat (if any) we can pull up from the south east depends on how long we can hold up the Atlantic jet before it manages to break through and feed the low west of the UK. The longer it remains cut off then the better chance of weakening that low and allowing heat to back westwards, though the eventual outcome looks like a breakdown to a UK based high.

[DTHFCJ]

Things looking up ref these,

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

 

but like John H says who knows alot more than me regarding these charts they need to be consistant,but they are the best ive seen for a while,but these

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

 

not so much??

 

that said id take anything after todays 9c rainfest!

Edited June 4, 2014 by DTHFCJ

[johnholmes]

The anomaly charts do appear to be settling down and I see little in them to support any real idea of either heat or surface high pressure other than in transient form from day 6?

 

The NOAA charts give as good an idea as we are likely to see from day 6 onwards. Possibly take a day or two for some of the 'heat' to decline but decline it will in my view. It is still very much in the air as to how 'hot' it will get, values greater than 25C in even isolated spots seem not too likely to me!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

[summer blizzard]

Very interesting outputs tonight. Unlike the breakdown in consensus from the 0z models tonight we have at day 8 both the Euro and GFS agreeing that pressure shall build below over the UK...

 

 

Moving on a little later and the GFS, GEM and even Euro to some extent do look like dropping a trough into Scandinavia.

[summer blizzard]

GFS18z breaks with consensus and instead build pressure over and to the north west of the UK. Not a bad pattern if you can avoid cloud as you get a larger durinal range and cooler nights.

 

[mushymanrob]

not sure about the current ops into next week... the anomaly charts to my eye suggest a westerly upper flow , which look to me like a pretty nomal nw/se split. maybe the ecm's current building high will end up further south then the 12z suggests. as for the gfs 00z i cant see such a block to our west, and the anomaly charts do not currently support it.

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM pretty much bang on line with its previous run

Turning very warm and humid again on Monday and Tuesday (south east in particular) with thunderstorms spreading up from France before turning fresher and Wednesday with heights building from the south west. Turning very warm again into week 2.

UKMO very similar to the ECM to day 6. GFS/GEM have higher heights around Greenland in the earlier timeframes.

Edited June 5, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Another nice run from ECM with pressure steadily building next week UKMO looks good as well

 

 

If anything ECM is slightly slower in building the high over the UK mid next week when compared to UKMO above

 

 

Beyond that the high build strongly

 

[Polar Maritime]

Yes the Models this morning continue with some very Summery charts and some great storm potential over the coming weekend which I'm sure most are looking forward to including myself..  The ECMWF & GFS also show's a much stronger push of height's towards the end of the run 13/14th, Beyond that and the GFS is still hinting some kind of slack Northerly, With Height's pushing up into Greenland, lot's to be resolved yet.

 

[johnholmes]

well there is no consistency between the 3 anomaly charts so I have little to suggest until they do show some consistency and continuity.

my comments below I make each morning and evening as I see the latest runs

 

Thur 5june

Ec-gfs

Both now show +ve heights and ridging over uk so another change!, this time it is gfs that has changed with ec much as its last issue, the noaa 6-10 shows no such +ve heights last evening for uk!! It shows slight +ve to ne whereas the ec-gfs idea show these arriving from the sse-sw area.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi folks, don't post much if at all during summer, but I do look in frequently.

 

Very much seem to be experiencing transient conditions and I think some nice warm weather is coming I think it won't last that long. I'm getting drawn to some models showing a Scandi trough down the line, and will the trough extend SW over the UK?  But that's ten days away and lots to get through before then.

 

 

 

 

As usual JH method and outlooks are sound as a pound.  If anyone is going enjoy the Derby festival....Ryan Moore on Geoffrey Chaucer is my 'forecast'

 

BFTP

Edited June 5, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Man With Beard]

After sunny and warm weather from today into next week (even for NW areas by the end of the week), the ensemble means suggest a hint of a northerly influence for the following week. If that's the case it could still be fine and sunny, but don't expect any particularly high temperatures.

Edited June 5, 2014 by rjbw

[jonboy]

Hi folks, don't post much if at all during summer, but I do look in frequently.

 

Very much seem to be experiencing transient conditions and I think some nice warm weather is coming I think it won't last that long. I'm getting drawn to some models showing a Scandi trough down the line, and will the trough extend SW over the UK?  But that's ten days away and lots to get through before then.

 

 

 

 

As usual JH method and outlooks are sound as a pound.  If anyone is going enjoy the Derby festival....Ryan Moore on Geoffrey Chaucer is my 'forecast'

 

BFTP

 

Hi Blast lets hope it stays dry for the derby meet as it will be my 25th straight derby. If it doesn't dry out to much i forecast amazing maria for friday oaks and kingston hill for saturday

[summer blizzard]

Consensus at day 8 this morning from all models that pressure will build over/south of the UK. By day 10 though, each model has a wildly different solution.

 

[summer blizzard]

Round 2 also looks good for Tuesday although thankfully it'll be nowhere near as warm..

 

[IDO]

I still think the ECM op is struggling, and as it does when it is uncertain, it overdoes the HP anomaly. Its D10 mean for uppers suggest the op is at it again today:

 

Mean: OP:

 

So for London the op is again in outlier 2m temp territory compared to its mean: 

 

Looking at GEM and GEFS the uppers mean in line with the ECM mean:

 

GFS:   GEM: 

 

So ECM maybe over doing the temps (more runs needed) but all models promise at least a temporary rise in pressure from Sunday. London the mean pressure kept above 1017 right out till D16:

 

 

Though seemingly no sustained UK High, it should give above average temps. This ties in with today's JMA update.

 

JMA: A weak positive pressure anomaly for week 2: 

 

Week 3-4 slightly stronger positive anomaly over our area, to the NW, where GFS FI has been trending of late: 

 

Not too bad an outlook but no apparent sign yet of a strong Summer pattern developing either way.

Edited June 5, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[johnholmes]

 

 

that looks as good a realistic summary as any I have seen on here, thanks for that, to an extent it fits in, as one might expect, using means, with the 500mb anomaly outputs, although as I suggested earlier they are not consistent enough to be really sure of them.

[knocker]

GEFS looking at slightly above average temps next week

Edited June 5, 2014 by knocker

[draztik]

GEFS looking at slightly above average temps next week

Canadian ens concur, heat building in Western Europe. For the UK, feeling warmest in SE. Tho above average nationwide. Pleasantly warm, sounds good.

Temp anom days 5-10/GEM Ens.

[mushymanrob]

im not fussed about temps, in any sunshine at this time of the year itll feel great! and with the promise of high pressure becoming dominant through next week we should be drying out and warming up. so the temp predictions arent the be all and end all, temps will look after themselves.

[knocker]

Probably a Sc HP.

[Summer Sun]

Very early stages on the 12z GFS but the warmer air is already further north for Monday

 

 

06z

 

 

UKMO also shows the warm air moving back in could be looking at the mid to high 20's in the SE and high teens low 20's for the rest of us

 

Edited June 5, 2014 by Summer Sun