Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

[knocker]

The ECM ops looks okay for next weekend although it's a bit of a knife edge situation. Certainly at the moment most of England should be okay but Scotland and the NE could come under the Scandinavian circulation and be somewhat cooler.

Edited June 17, 2014 by knocker

[johnholmes]

my take on how the anomaly charts are shaping up for later next week

 

Tue 17june

Ec-gfs

Well neither show all that much similar to noaa, gfs showing the trough in charge and any ridging/+ve way nw of the uk, ec still has ridging/slight +ve northern uk and north but the eastern trough is closer to uk, not that different really to noaa which last evening also showed the trough into the eastern  n sea 

So overall the trend is starting to suggest less settled by end of the month?

 

Just the EC-GFS link this morning, and as commented above, EC is closer to the NOAA output for 6-10 days last evening

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[Yarmy]

The models appear (usual caveats apply) to be obeying the rules of (i) underestimating blocks and (ii) migrating the pattern east as the days go by. The GEM has high pressure over us from start to finish:

 

 

 

It's never particularly warm (especially IMBY), but it's dry for the most part. 

 

The weak trough/cut-off low to the SW of the Iberian peninsula will make it hot in the med if you're off there on your holibobs. 

 

 

Edited June 17, 2014 by Yarmy

[shaky]

think youre being abit harsh...

sat

sat.gif

sun

sun.gif

seems largely settled and fine for most going off the charts shaky referred too.

thank you very much mate!!I dont understand whats wrong in me saying what the models are showing!!it might be one or two lines but am just stating the facts!!today the models are once again backing up what I said yesterday and showing a fine weekend for much of the uk barring maybe northern Scotland!!I dont have time to post pics otherwise I would!!thats the ecm ukmo and gfs showing a resonable weekend!!big change compared to what was shown a couple of days ago!!had more of a northeasterly then! Edited June 17, 2014 by shaky

[Summer Sun]

UKMO shows the high firmly in place to the west of the UK but close enough to influence our weather, any showers would be very patchy and mainly in the north, temperatures are likely to be ranging from average to above average in the parts of the west and Ireland

 

 

t144 850's unavailable at the time of posting

 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO still not keen on a breakdown maybe the odd shower where cloud is thicker but on the whole this lengthy settled spell looks like continuing with the warmest conditions the further west you are

 

 

GFS also shows the high staying with us

 

 

Away from the UK it doesn't look too good for Portugal and parts of Spain with that trough not going anywhere fast

Edited June 17, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

GFS 12z is showing a rather nice weekend now with the cool air never making it far enough south to spoil things. High pressure resident over the UK and remaining warm, becoming very warm in the south on Sunday and Monday.

 

Edited June 17, 2014 by Milhouse

[Milhouse]

Fairly benign conditions from the ECM so far. Warming up for southern England and remaining that way till Sunday. Cooler air filtering south all the while and a fresher feel to things for the start of next week as high pressure attempts to push back in from the west. Remaining dry and fairly pleasant. A long way from the rainfest of June 2012 and probably better than last June as well.

[Milhouse]

The run ends fine and increasingly warm with the Azores high pushing back in

 

[Mike Poole]

Relatively new to Netweather and my first post on the MOD.  Why?  I've noticed a new model on Meteociel that looks as though it will be worth keeping an eye on, the FIM.  Here's its take on Sunday:

 

 

Here's what Wikipedia says about this model (quote):

 

The Flow-following, finite-volume Icosahedral Model (FIM) is a numerical weather prediction model currently under development at the Earth System Research Laboratory.

The FIM is being developed as a candidate to eventually supplant the Global Forecast System, the United States's current medium-range forecast model. The FIM was originally slated to become operational some time in 2014 (as of spring 2014 the model is still testing); the GFS will continue to be run and maintained for several years afterward, much in the same way the GFS and its predecessor, the Nested Grid Model, ran concurrently for several years. The model currently produces similar results to the GFS, but runs slower on the NWS's operational computers. Its three-part name derives from its key features: "flow-following" indicates that its vertical coordinates are based on both terrain and potential temperature (isentropic sigma coordinates, previously used in the now-discontinued rapid update cycle model), and "finite-volume" describes the method used for calculating horizontal transport. The "icosahedral" portion describes the model's most uncommon feature: whereas most grid-based forecast models have historically used rectangular grid points (a less than ideal arrangement for a planet that is a slightly oblate spheroid), the FIM instead fits Earth to a truncated icosahedron, with twelve evenly spaced pentagons (including two at the poles) anchoring a grid of hexagons.

The FIM runs as a multiscale model, with a suffix number indicating the model's horizontal resolution. FIM7 operates at a spatial resolution of approximately 60 km, FIM8 at 30 km, FIM9 at 15km and FIM9.5 at 10km. The FIM7 and FIM8 both run twice daily (0z and 12z) with 6-hour temporal resolution out to 14 days. The FIM9 runs four times daily, also with 6-hour steps, out to 7 days. (FIM9.5 is not currently in operation.)

 

Unquote!

 

I think it will be interesting to see how this model performs on two levels as a possible successor to GFS.  First, does the novel geometry of the model overcome any of GFS biases, second this model seems to run 14 days but without the drop in resolution at 8 days - will this be better at picking up trends than GFS?  Time will tell no doubt.

[William of Walworth]

I think some of today's runs, for example the UKMO ones that Summer Sun quoted and the 12z ECM ones quoted by Milhouse on the previous page, offer a bit of a warning for those of us, not least myself, who are prone to becoming overoptimistic, or overdepressed, by just one or two sets of runs. In other words, details and positioning are constantly changing and nothing either summery of washouty is nailed on for next week yet.

 

I will say, that  some of today's models do suggest that HP areas aren't necessarily a pushover. HP might (or might not!) turn out more resilient in terms of UK influence than some of Monday's models (in particular) were suggesting. And then again, the whole picture might have altered again by midnight, or tomorrow ... and over coming days.

 

J10's updated model analysis for next week in Somerset, due later today 'over there'**, will put some good balanced detailed synoptic analysis on all the main models and other output, but from what I've seen here, I'm hopecasting he'll be talking a little more positively today. For now!

 

**And now updated :

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80659-blog-glastonbury-festival-2014-25-to-29-june-forecast-no-10-issued-17-june/?p=2990520

Edited June 17, 2014 by William of Walworth

[Gael_Force]

Relatively new to Netweather and my first post on the MOD.  Why?  I've noticed a new model on Meteociel that looks as though it will be worth keeping an eye on, the FIM.  Here's its take on Sunday:

 

 

Here's what Wikipedia says about this model (quote):

 

The Flow-following, finite-volume Icosahedral Model (FIM) is a numerical weather prediction model currently under development at the Earth System Research Laboratory.

The FIM is being developed as a candidate to eventually supplant the Global Forecast System, the United States's current medium-range forecast model. The FIM was originally slated to become operational some time in 2014 (as of spring 2014 the model is still testing); the GFS will continue to be run and maintained for several years afterward, much in the same way the GFS and its predecessor, the Nested Grid Model, ran concurrently for several years. The model currently produces similar results to the GFS, but runs slower on the NWS's operational computers. Its three-part name derives from its key features: "flow-following" indicates that its vertical coordinates are based on both terrain and potential temperature (isentropic sigma coordinates, previously used in the now-discontinued rapid update cycle model), and "finite-volume" describes the method used for calculating horizontal transport. The "icosahedral" portion describes the model's most uncommon feature: whereas most grid-based forecast models have historically used rectangular grid points (a less than ideal arrangement for a planet that is a slightly oblate spheroid), the FIM instead fits Earth to a truncated icosahedron, with twelve evenly spaced pentagons (including two at the poles) anchoring a grid of hexagons.

The FIM runs as a multiscale model, with a suffix number indicating the model's horizontal resolution. FIM7 operates at a spatial resolution of approximately 60 km, FIM8 at 30 km, FIM9 at 15km and FIM9.5 at 10km. The FIM7 and FIM8 both run twice daily (0z and 12z) with 6-hour temporal resolution out to 14 days. The FIM9 runs four times daily, also with 6-hour steps, out to 7 days. (FIM9.5 is not currently in operation.)

 

Unquote!

 

I think it will be interesting to see how this model performs on two levels as a possible successor to GFS.  First, does the novel geometry of the model overcome any of GFS biases, second this model seems to run 14 days but without the drop in resolution at 8 days - will this be better at picking up trends than GFS?  Time will tell no doubt.

 

The FIM has been in use for a few years now, mainly seen on the tropical boards. Good to see it in a more recognisable format on Meteociel - the home site for FIM produces very 'busy' charts (IMO) but has a huge range of parameters - many more than that offered on MC. I don't think the performance is considered to be in any way superior to the current GFS and with this years planned upgrade to the GFS unlikely to be in the near future.

 

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim_jet

[Summer Sun]

A pretty settled run from ECM tonight it does make me wonder if the breakdown will arrive next week, this is so similar to July 2013 a breakdown kept appearing only to get pushed further and further back.

 

We are not looking at heatwave conditions far from it but in any sunshine it will feel very pleasant

 

[Mike Poole]

The FIM has been in use for a few years now, mainly seen on the tropical boards. Good to see it in a more recognisable format on Meteociel - the home site for FIM produces very 'busy' charts (IMO) but has a huge range of parameters - many more than that offered on MC. I don't think the performance is considered to be in any way superior to the current GFS and with this years planned upgrade to the GFS unlikely to be in the near future.

 

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim_jet

Interesting, so to be clear the upgrade to the GFS this year is not the FIM?  I understand that on the model verification charts the GFS upgrade is denoted as PRHW14 (see below) is this the FIM or a more mundane upgrade to GFS?

 

[bluearmy]

As far as i can see, PRHW14 is a major upgrade as it runs at 13km to day 10. cant see if there is a change in vertical levels. however, the improvement in performance not too impressive as yet on the stats.

Edited June 17, 2014 by bluearmy

[SP1986]

Models are very very very inconsistent at the moment, GFS has gone from one scenario to another, and keeps jumping around for model watchers it can be incredibly frustrating when an outlook is showing a situation that would have vastly different outcomes, when translated into ground weather.

Edited June 17, 2014 by SP1986

[Geordiesnow]

Models are very very very inconsistent at the moment, GFS has gone from one scenario to another, and keeps jumping around for model watchers it can be incredibly frustrating when an outlook is showing a situation that would have vastly different outcomes, when translated into ground weather.

 

From what I seen, if you ignore the finer details, the models have been consistent of a similar pattern to now with high pressure just to the West of us and the UK being in a feed of Northerly to NW'ly winds, it does look like at times the high pressure will nose in but the main emphasis is on mainly dry weather, certainly no meaningful rainfall on the way. 

 

Its a weather pattern that won't be loved by all but at least some areas are getting proper summery weather and for most of joe public, dry weather is what they like so there should not be many complaints really. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Still a lot of differences even in the reliable timeframe, in particular to how strong the push of very warm air from the continent is during the coming weekend.

GFS

ECM

 

GFS certainly warmer and drier. The ECM does look too clean in it's longer term outlook. The GFS looks more correct in creating a complex pattern dominated by low heights to the south and weak heights over or north of the UK. The Scandi trough looks to be just out of the picture, though cooler air could infiltrate from the north east at times to bring cooler and fresher weather.

 

Saying that it could all be different in the morning 

[Polar Maritime]

A cool/wet and unsettled turn of the the Month from the GFS tonight.

 

Edited June 17, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[William of Walworth]

From what I seen, if you ignore the finer details, the models have been consistent of a similar pattern to now with high pressure just to the West of us and the UK being in a feed of Northerly to NW'ly winds, it does look like at times the high pressure will nose in but the main emphasis is on mainly dry weather, certainly no meaningful rainfall on the way. 

 

Its a weather pattern that won't be loved by all but at least some areas are getting proper summery weather and for most of joe public, dry weather is what they like so there should not be many complaints really. 

Spot on!

 

SP was right about a certain level of frustration with current synoptic fluctuations though. 

 

Won't be able to check models/NW again til Thurs morning now, so please, models, no more wobbles! I'll bank the scenario described so well by Geordiesnow above.

[SteveB]

Polar Maritime, on 17 Jun 2014 - 23:42, said:

A cool/wet and unsettled turn of the the Month from the GFS tonight.

 

 

You hardly ever see those sort of charts come to fruition in Winter let alone in Summer.

 

This morning is all change again anyway.

 

[mushymanrob]

As far as i can see, PRHW14 is a major upgrade as it runs at 13km to day 10. cant see if there is a change in vertical levels. however, the improvement in performance not too impressive as yet on the stats.

 

i have no idea what youve just said.... could you explain it abit please?

[knocker]

How is it looking this morning for Glastonbury with the GFS.

 

The 500mb anomaly is not looking quite so clever. The ridge is quite weak and situated to the NW of the UK. Cold air running from Scandinavia down to Europe and also south of Greenland giving a westerly flow over the UK.

 

Surface analysis for 00z

 

Thursday.

 

Ridge fro AZ high extending NE into UK giving calm dry conditions,  Low west of Norway with a front affecting northern Scotland.

 

Friday

 

Still holding on to the transient ridge but developing low 400miles SW of Ireland entering the fray with another low pressure area over France. Still dry in England and wet in n. Scotland.

 

Saturday

 

Things get a tad complicated. The ridge slips south and the low pressure is just to the west of Ireland bringing wet weather there and to most of the UK.

 

Sunday

 

Very unsettled. The ridge has now slipped SW leaving the UK in a westerly airstream with low pressure west of Ireland and a trough poking into Scotland and troughs nipping across the UK bringing quite wet conditions.

[Polar Maritime]

You hardly ever see those sort of charts come to fruition in Winter let alone in Summer.

 

This morning is all change again anyway.

 

 

Yes the models have had massive swings in there evolutions over the last couple of days, This morning the GFS is showing a more Westerly flow off the Atlantic at Months end, Bringing wet and unsettled weather, With the Jet over the UK.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Yes the models have had massive swings in there evolutions over the last couple of days, This morning the GFS is showing a more Westerly flow off the Atlantic at Months end, Bringing wet and unsettled weather, With the Jet over the UK.

 

There does seem to be an increase in strength of the jet-stream moving across the Atlantic next week. I guess the question is how will the ridge currently west of us respond to this. The ECM simply flattens it.

Whilst the GEM develops a robust UK high

 

GFS is in the middle with a weaker high over the UK which will probably be more transient.

 

Looking at the UKMO, that looks more akin to the ECM than anything else.