Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

[johnholmes]

The anomaly charts, nothing from GFS for two days, so NOAA/ECMWF outlooks in the 6-10 day range and both suggest increasingly that into July will be cool and unsettled rather than settled. Improving the further SW one lives from the far ne being closest to the coldish upper low.

links below

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

and

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

As my posts have suggested over the past fw days there has been a variety of options being shown, although all suggesting an upper flow from a touch north of west. Over the past couple of runs this does seem to be hardening into a fairly marked trough/upper low close by the UK.

Lots of happy posts if this was mid winter-not sure about this for mid summer though!

 

The pattern on the anomaly charts, all 3, several days ago and up to this morning (EC) has been pretty consistent in the far west of the charts=Pacific region (as commented on by Tamara) thus the idea of upper troughs rather than upper highs predominating in the UK area for a while yet seems a reasonable first approximation. Of course there will be shorter spells with the upper air showing a more ridge type signal but less frequently than the trough set up. This would take us into the middle part of July with the possibility of ridging becoming more dominant for the latter part. This bit is highly problematic though with guidance this far out subject to even more doubt than usual!

Edited June 27, 2014 by johnholmes

[knocker]

Looking at the ECM for next weekend. The anomaly has a swathe of cold air Greenland to the UK with warm air to the south. The jet naturally between the two and swings WNW over the UK. A classic N/S split that extends to the surface analysis with a deep depression forming to the NW and over the north of Scotland by Saturday with the HP influencing the south.

 

[knocker]

The ECM ens for the above period is less optimistic

Edited June 27, 2014 by knocker

[stodge]

Morning all

 

Clear signs that the sufferings of the hay fever afflicted like myself may be coming to an end not only through this weekend but into next week:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014062706/gfs-0-150.png?6

 

GFS 06Z Operational suggesting any settled spell will be transient as the Atlantic fires up again and the Azores HP gets displaced back SW.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014062706/gfs-0-156.png?6

 

Looks as though the LP is set to move SE toward or over the UK for the end of next week. Looking back at 00Z FI, plenty of blocking about to the SW and NE but the trough is aligned over the UK so the LP progression NW/SE is in place. No washout but no heat wave either moving toward mid July.

[stodge]

Well, step on me vitals and watch me eyes water....something a deal more settled from GFS with the LP further north and not as vigorous as on the 00Z:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014062706/gfs-0-252.png?6

 

The Azores HP ridging back in to save Wimbledon Finals weekend and offer something pleasant if not perhaps overly hot. It will be interesting to see if the 12Z and models such as GEM and ECM tone down next weekend's Atlantic LP accordingly.

[summer blizzard]

More glorious and simple consensus from the Euro, GEM and GFS this morning at day 8 with the trough north of the UK..

 

[Summer Sun]

Well, step on me vitals and watch me eyes water....something a deal more settled from GFS with the LP further north and not as vigorous as on the 00Z:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014062706/gfs-0-252.png?6

 

The Azores HP ridging back in to save Wimbledon Finals weekend and offer something pleasant if not perhaps overly hot. It will be interesting to see if the 12Z and models such as GEM and ECM tone down next weekend's Atlantic LP accordingly.

 

I thought the Wimbledon finals are the 5th and 6th? if so it don't look too good

 

[Yarmy]

I thought the Wimbledon finals are the 5th and 6th? if so it don't look too good

 

 

 

Well, they have a roof these days so thankfully no danger of Cliff turning up with a microphone. 

 

The 6z does track the depression further North and doesn't build heights over Greenland, yet it still manages to drop it right over the top of us at T192ish. Plenty of time for it to change though at that range.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO shows westerly winds arriving towards the end of next week with the south seeing the best of the drier weather

 

[bluearmy]

There certainly seems to be a trend towards the depression next weekend being north of the uk rather than over it. still time for this to change to be a more unsettled outlook

[Milhouse]

Not a terrible chart for next Thursday with low pressure centred just to the SE of Iceland. North south split likely with warm conditions hanging on in the south.

 

[Milhouse]

Starting to see signs of low pressure moving away off to the NE in the final stages of the ECM. After the fine spell early next week we should have a better idea of how and when the low pressure later next week will clear out of the way.

 

[knocker]

The latest ECM for next week is similar to the previous so won't repeat my comments. Will await the ens.

Edited June 27, 2014 by knocker

[ANYWEATHER]

Maybe worth keeping an eye to the southwest in the days ahead.....      It may well throw a spanner in the works...

[knocker]

The ECM ens is also similar to previous run

Edited June 27, 2014 by knocker

[summer blizzard]

Beautiful consensus remains out to day 8 (July 5th) with low pressure somewhere north of the UK..

 

[knocker]

A glance at the 500mb anomaly charts for next weekend doesn't fill one with glee. Although they are not in total agreement on the pattern, NOAA and the ECM are pretty close, They all support the trough over the UK. Doesn't bode well.

Edited June 28, 2014 by knocker

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

looking a bit wet  for the British  GP   whats  new  !! at the end of the week

[Man With Beard]

It seems there has been a battle for control of our weather for weeks now, with low pressure always looking as if it will win only for heights to just about hang on. I don't see the next 10 days any differently, and in fact there are now hints that high pressure will build in more strongly from D10.

Out to T144, GFS and ECM broadly similar - the low that was once forecast to park itself over us has corrected north (UKMO still slightly further south), leaving mainly ok conditions with the possibility of a few showers / a not very potent front moving through:

The secondary low in the Atlantic does give a couple of less settled days by T168/192:

But it doesn't stick around long, as the Azores High is pushing in behind to settle things down for a few days - several charts now showing something similar:

Dare I say, something for everyone in the charts this morning?

[IDO]

The London members this morning: 

 

Pressure recovering from Sunday before the LP system comes in accompanied by a spike in rainfall. Pressure then, as you would expect recovers. Looking at the GEFS for after D10 it appears that about 33% have HP edging up from the SW, 33% keep us in a trough and the rest some N/S split.

 

Variation on timing and strength of the LP system for late next week:

 

D6 GEM:   GFS op:  Navgem: 

 

UK:  ECM: 

 

So the trend is to place it further north. Though with the jet running through the UK it carries some short wave lows and possible frontal rain after D7:

 

 

So average (or below) temps for the next four days, then Wednesday/Thursday look warmer before the LP moves in for the weekend. Then not looking too bad for the south with the greater risk of remaining unsettled the further north you are (FI and needs firming up on). No pending settled period but no long term zonal outlook either so as others have said a mixed bag.

Edited June 28, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[bluearmy]

Those hints that we might avoid the worst of the trough next weekend seem to have receded with the ops in good agreement that the upper trough will straddle the uk next weekend together with likely attendant fronts hanging ne/sw across us.

Could be a wriggling cf at worst so a long way from knowing if we just see a few hours of rain or something rather more sustained across a portion of the country.

[knocker]

Keeping the anomaly charts in mind this morning's ECM is much the same as the previous two runs which can be seen from the following charts without me woffling.

Edited June 28, 2014 by knocker

[Captain Shortwave]

Yeah it looks like the low poised to move in next weekend might stay west of Scandinavia with a sharp upper trough moving across the UK, probably leading to another shallow low scenario. Fronts could be a issue if the trough develops in the wrong place. This will change from run to run.

The working week looks decent, Monday-Thursday look dry across the board with the ECM eking out an extra day before conditions deteriorate over the weekend. So just like this week then. Conditions could turn warm or very warm in the south if the sun does come out in the latter part of the week.

 

Interestingly the models are starting to bring the early June pattern (West Russian/Azores ridge/ near UK trough) back into the mix. Will be interesting to see how that develops.

Edited June 28, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[johnholmes]

less data again from EC-GFS but EC along with NOAA both its 6-10 and 8-14 now about the same pattern showing troughing as the main feature for the 6-15 day period. This has been the case for 3 days now, so really we are looking at this upper pattern from about 5 days on from now and then for 15-18 days thereafter unless the anomaly charts have got it very wrong.

Edited June 28, 2014 by johnholmes

[Paul_1978]

Gents, some of us like wet weather and the prospect of rain.... To say 'the trough is bad news' for example is not being impartial. Some of us like that prospect.

I'll go back into hiding now :-)