Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

[Summer Sun]

Once the low does move away the continued hints from ECM are for pressure to rise

 

 

UKMO also shows us missing the worst staying well north of the UK though we would still be affected by some rain / showers at times

 

[knocker]

The ECM ens supports the bleak scenario for next weekend.

Edited June 28, 2014 by knocker

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM ens supports the bleak scenario for next weekend.

Low pressure north of the UK, 850s are reasonable even on the mean, so probably showers and temperatures in the low twenties. Not too bleak to be honest. Coolest and wettest in the north west.

 

]

 

Just mundane mixed weather, nothing spectacular either way.

 

Also in the more reliable timeframe

 

Impressive temperatures for the middle of next week. So conditions could turn very warm, especially in sheltered eastern areas.

Edited June 28, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[knocker]

Low pressure north of the UK, 850s are reasonable even on the mean, so probably showers and temperatures in the low twenties. Not too bleak to be honest. Coolest and wettest in the north west.

 

 Point taken but I see the GFS 06 has sneaked in another scenario with a secondary low south of Ireland on Saturday. Just as well this won't verify.

Edited June 28, 2014 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z is high pressure galore from day 10 with it not breaking down to the very end of its run

 

[Milhouse]

Good news that both the GFS 12z and UKMO have upgraded the settled and warm weather this week with southern England looking like it will stay dry all week. GFS 12z is now showing temps into the mid 20s which was unthinkable just a few days ago. The breakdown does come but its a brief affair before high pressure moves back in.

[Milhouse]

Thursday sees widespread mid 20s

 

[Captain Shortwave]

The GFS shows temperatures around the 80F ballpark for Wednesday/Thursday and Friday. UKMO looks less good but still ok.

ECM....... looks like there is some problem with the run.

Edited June 28, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Milhouse]

The GFS shows temperatures around the 80F ballpark for Wednesday/Thursday and Friday. UKMO looks less good but still ok.

ECM....... looks like there is some problem with the run.

 

It does appear that there is an issue with the upper temperatures. Its like all of a sudden they rise for no apparent reason. But thats all thats wrong with it. Its looking very good out to Wednesday with all areas warm and settled. What a turnaround.

 

[Evening thunder]

Rapid global warming seems to have been predicted by the ECM tonight..

[bluearmy]

The high uppers flooding the atlantic and nw europe on the op ecm are quite amazing. They are available coming out of the states but i feel the 12z op must be overdoing it.

Checked the ecm website and the data is the same so we have to await the ens to get a handle on this.

Edited June 28, 2014 by bluearmy

[Milhouse]

Ignoring the dodgy output from the ECM, it throws up a rather good FI too with warm winds wafting up from the SW after a brief unsettled spell at the end of the week. Summer looks like its back on!

[Captain Shortwave]

Ignoring the dodgy output from the ECM, it throws up a rather good FI too with warm winds wafting up from the SW after a brief unsettled spell at the end of the week. Summer looks like its back on!

despite the oddities the return of the Euro high in week 2 is certainly a positive, will have to see whether there is ensemble backing on that.

If this run did come off then the southeaster third of the country would probably experience at least average temperatures if not warm or even very warm conditions at times. The north west will of course be cooler and more unsettled, but an inevitability in this weather pattern.

[knocker]

The high uppers flooding the atlantic and nw europe on the op ecm are quite amazing. They are available coming out of the states but i feel the 12z op must be overdoing it.Checked the ecm website and the data is the same so we have to await the ens to get a handle on this.

 

Yes I've only just looked at another model run and this is what I got which is slightly unbelievable. That's meant to be an understatement by the way. In fact the GFS surface temps for the same time are decidedly chilly as it has low 992mb over Ireland.

Edited June 28, 2014 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

Here it is:

Temperature records broken all over the Northern Hemisphere if that happened! Surely, surely some mistake! Compare with GFS:

[Scorcher]

Here it is:

Temperature records broken all over the Northern Hemisphere if that happened! Surely, surely some mistake! Compare with GFS:

 

Yes it looks like an error- still the GFS temperatures aren't too bad either!

[DTHFCJ]

The high uppers flooding the atlantic and nw europe on the op ecm are quite amazing. They are available coming out of the states but i feel the 12z op must be overdoing it.Checked the ecm website and the data is the same so we have to await the ens to get a handle on this.

Ens not too bad either...?...sorry cant post link to charts(temp wise i should add)

 

that said a  big change since this morning.............so confused .com

Edited June 28, 2014 by DTHFCJ

[Summer Sun]

ECM is certainly an error tonight just a case of ignoring it and see what it does in the morning

[bluearmy]

ECM is certainly an error tonight just a case of ignoring it and see what it does in the morning

The whole suite must be skewed then gavin. I agree that we need to see the next run. i wouldnt go as far as to say its 'an error' though.For de bilt, the op is one of the warmest runs days 6/10, but it isnt an outlier. Edited June 28, 2014 by bluearmy

[Summer Sun]

The whole suite must be skewed then gavin. I agree that we need to see the next run. i wouldnt go as far as to say its 'an error' though.

 

Yep looks wrong from start to finish

 

12z

 

 

00z

 

[knocker]

Yup make what you will of this and the GFS goes the other way.

 

Edited June 28, 2014 by knocker

[Cloud 10]

Comparing the 850 hpa temp.anomalies between the NAEFS and the ECM mean at day 10 reveals that the ECM has indeed blew a fuse.

 

naefs..  ecm..

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the pub run is holding the low further north, this is actually putting us more at risk of rain coming up from the south as well as from the north west for the end of the week.

Cracking summer charts for the south. Very warm or even hot. Potential for thunderstorms too on Friday if these charts verified.

 

Yep a 30C for southern England on Friday, high twenties widely from Northern England south. The heat is still around into the weekend too. Oh GFS how we have missed runs like this

Edited June 28, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Man With Beard]

Back to the real world...GFS 18Z again showing 24-27C being reached Weds-Friday this week, barely believable if you remember the models from a few days ago. It seems that there must be something the models aren't picking around T168-T240 at the moment - they keep trying to lower heights over the UK, but more often than not the pattern shifts north in the more reliable - this weekemd excepted!

[Milhouse]

Quite stunning from the GFS, considering what it was showing for Friday just a few days ago. Looks like the Euro high has been upgraded in recent runs which is keeping low pressure away to our north.

 

On into FI we see a renewed build of high pressure from the Azores so i would definately say that prospects have improved as we enter high summer.

Edited June 28, 2014 by Milhouse