Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.

[Summer Sun]

Next weekend looks like a classic mix of sunshine and showers with a westerly breeze

 

 

Before then the south will be holding on to the warmth not as high as just gone but the mid to high 20s will be hit on a number of days from Tuesday

 

 

Possibly another 30c day next Saturday in the south fresher in the north

 

 

Next Sunday turns fresher for all though parts of the far south could reach the mid 20s

 

[stodge]

Morning all

 

Before I look at the models, one of the problems on this Forum is the use of subjective terminology such that one man's "Hot" is another man's "Warm" and throwing terms like that around without context often causes misunderstandings.

 

So, for me the following scale applies:

 

20-25c: Average to Warm

25-30c: Warm to Very Warm

30-35c: Very Warm to Hot

35-40c: Hot to Exceptionally Hot

40c+: Which way is the fridge ?

 

Back to the output and a confused and confusing picture this morning as the established pattern shifts around so let's see what the new month brings:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014072700/gfs-0-132.png?0

 

GFS 00Z Operational for next Friday afternoon and a very shallow LP over the country so a likelihood for downpours but still warm enough. The Azores HP is in full retreat.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014072700/ECM1-144.GIF?27-12

 

ECM 00Z Operational at a similar time. Not good for sun and heat fans to be honest but storm fans could do well from that.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014072700/gem-0-132.png?00

 

GEM 00Z - different again, winding up quite a little storm to the SW which would bring a lot of rain and possibly even gales,

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014072700/UW144-21.GIF?27-07

 

UKMO - closest to ECM at that time.

 

All in all, looking unsettled - not cool in the south but with rain or showers never too far away. Oddly enough, I've seen comments that August can be a very wet month.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Morning all :)Before I look at the models, one of the problems on this Forum is the use of subjective terminology such that one man's "Hot" is another man's "Warm" and throwing terms like that around without context often causes misunderstandings.So, for me the following scale applies:20-25c: Average to Warm25-30c: Warm to Very Warm30-35c: Very Warm to Hot35-40c: Hot to Exceptionally Hot40c+: Which way is the fridge ?Back to the output and a confused and confusing picture this morning as the established pattern shifts around so let's see what the new month brings:http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014072700/gfs-0-132.png?0GFS 00Z Operational for next Friday afternoon and a very shallow LP over the country so a likelihood for downpours but still warm enough. The Azores HP is in full retreat.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014072700/ECM1-144.GIF?27-12ECM 00Z Operational at a similar time. Not good for sun and heat fans to be honest but storm fans could do well from that.http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014072700/gem-0-132.png?00GEM 00Z - different again, winding up quite a little storm to the SW which would bring a lot of rain and possibly even gales,http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014072700/UW144-21.GIF?27-07UKMO - closest to ECM at that time.All in all, looking unsettled - not cool in the south but with rain or showers never too far away. Oddly enough, I've seen comments that August can be a very wet month.

The thing is as this really is an evolving situation , the break down that is upon from today really isn't much of a break down , yes of course it's a fresher week , especially the further north you are , with spells of rain or showers like you say , but this week for England and Wales looks warm , with good spells of sunshine , and yes unsettled for some . But not a washout by any means . So with the el-niño really driving the background signals and teleconnections pointing to another push of hights from the east , I'm not looking at next wkend in the models with much confidence , after Tamara's excellent informative post although a bit hard to understand certain detail , we can see that over the next 10 days things will 'rinse and repeat' so I do expect the models to start showing this over the coming week. Watch for retrogressing heights over Scandi moving west , with the typically week summer jet being split in 2 , one very week arm going directly north , the other south , with a cut off low grinding to a holt to our southwest inviting as others have said another 'POSSIBLE' hot plume Edited July 27, 2014 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Milhouse]

Out as far as next Saturday the GFS 6z continues to show temperatures remaining very warm for the Midlands and SE England. Throughout much of the upcoming week there will be a lot of dry and fine weather around but almost everyone will catch a shower at some point i feel. But generally its looking like another decent week for most.

 

Thereafter the 6z shows some proper unsettled conditions developing for a time. But as FI shows, no one can rule out a hot spell during August

 

 

 

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

 

GFS wants to pull in some monster amounts of precip off of the continent for next Sunday, are we looking at another potential MCS? What else would dump this much rainfall?

[TonyH]

The good Summer of 2014 set to continue 'largely unscathed' this week!

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4816-weather-guide-monday-28th-july-to-sunday-3rd-august-2014/

[TonyH]

Morning all

 

Before I look at the models, one of the problems on this Forum is the use of subjective terminology such that one man's "Hot" is another man's "Warm" and throwing terms like that around without context often causes misunderstandings.

 

So, for me the following scale applies:

 

20-25c: Average to Warm

25-30c: Warm to Very Warm

30-35c: Very Warm to Hot

35-40c: Hot to Exceptionally Hot

40c+: Which way is the fridge ?

 

 

For me and my location in July, as the terms shift compared with the monthly averages:

20 to 22c rather warm

23 to 24c warm

25 to 27c very warm

28c to 29c hot

Above 30c very hot and which is rather rare here!

[draztik]

Good spot drastik, and with the models traditionally struggling with blocks to the east, next weekend's evolution remains in the balance

Of course. The ecm ensemble mean keeps the core of the heights further east in the 0z update into mid term; with troughing still evident to the west of the UK into days 10-15. So we will have to see how the block to our east develops.

Days 8-13,10-15 ecm height anom.

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please only discuss Model Output in here, There are other threads to discuss what Temperatures we personally find Hot or Cold.

 

Please Continue, Many Thanks.

 

PM

[legritter]

Good afternoon all ,well looking at current charts data ,plenty of good summer weather to be had this coming week no heatwave but many locations above average for late july .past 144hrs all could change ,with low pressure moving in from the east or s east but at this range i would not like to call a major change .the met office are hinting at a much wetter episode in the extended outlook but as we all know this could set up further east with the uk catching another round of warm thundery weather type or low pressure could set up right over good old UK ,there i feel are many options on the table at this range ,but worth bearing in mind all main modells hinting at an unsettled start to August in my opinion but come this evenings runs all could change .As always enough in the charts to keep us Modellers interested and its still BBQ weather so lets enjoy ,Before you know it Frosty will be about with his Snow charts ,take care all .

[phil nw.]

A further post discussing temperatures preferences, after PM 's request, has been removed.

Please keep to model views only in here please all.

 

Thanks.

[summer blizzard]

Prepare for model confusion in about 10 days. Nhc have given a long tracker 40% which if it develops may recurve.

[William of Walworth]

Prepare for model confusion in about 10 days. Nhc have given a long tracker 40% which if it develops may recurve.

 

 

My apologies for limited understnding here, but can you (or someone else) please explain a bit more what that bolded bit might mean for us, and what the implications could be (or not)?

 

Cheers -- entirely appreciated that you're referring to FI but still!

[johnholmes]

nhc=National Hurricane Centre=link to their site

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

I do so wish, I say this several times each year, STOP using accronyms unless you link to what it is or the actual site - PLEASE

 

In terms of what effect it may have on any model at really any time scale it is uncertainty.

None of the models and I mean none, seem able to cope with the enormous amounts of heat and moisture involved in tropical storms even more so if they become hurricanes and move into the Atlantic. The word model also includes what I use so much=500mb anomaly charts. Once the main tropical storm/hurricane season gets under way then every model is less reliable in most instances. One crumb of comfort about this for 2014 is that both main centres that predict the number of these back in May suggest a lower than average number this year.

 

Met O link

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/seasonal/northatlantic2014

and the NOAA prediction is quite similar

Edited July 27, 2014 by johnholmes

[knocker]

Taking a punt

Edited July 27, 2014 by knocker

[terrier]

The 12z ops tonight are bordering on awful for August. Gotta hope there wrong. 

Edited July 27, 2014 by Polar Maritime
No Monthly "right off's" in here thanks.

[Gael_Force]

My apologies for limited understnding here, but can you (or someone else) please explain a bit more what that bolded bit might mean for us, and what the implications could be (or not)?

 

Cheers -- entirely appreciated that you're referring to FI but still!

 

It basically means that the track of a tropical cyclone will make the low-res even more unreliable than usual. We already have big deviations between CMC, NAVGEM and GFS on the 12Z runs and this beastie is only a little pouch off the coast of Africa at this moment in time - a lot of change along the way - anything from a track that would pump up a ridge over Greenland to one that would have us sizzling under the influence of the Azores high.

[Alex]

The 12z ops tonight are bordering on awful for August. Gotta hope there wrong. Or August looks like a right off in my opinion

But do they? One big trend over the last 3-4 days has to slowly move the projected trough westwards. First of all this Friday we were meant to see a scandi trough. Over the last few days, this has moved to a UK trough. Now we are seeing the first glimpses of where I believe it will setup - to the west of us, yes close enough to throw up some potent weather systems next weekend but in terms of temperature - warm and humid I would expect, especially the further southeast you are. Moving into the following week (week 2) and I see signs of retrogression, therefore the scandi high could come back into play!Despite all this, as some have said, watch the models try to predict this tropical storm! @alexbweather

[phil nw.]

It looks like we still retain reasonable warmth right through this week for much of the country,away from the far nw.

In spite of the modeled trough for the end of the week which will bring some showery rain for many temperatures are still showing low to mid 20'sC for much of England and Wales in particular.

 

it's looking more like the trough will stall and gradually fill into the following week as pressure starts to rebuild from the south again possibly linking to the omni-present Scandi ridge to form a solid Euro block.

 

so maybe no protracted breakdown to our very decent Summer so far.

 

 

[johnholmes]

The 12z ops tonight are bordering on awful for August. Gotta hope there wrong. Or August looks like a right off in my opinion

 

The number of times, at any time of the year, some folk look at ONE run from GFS and then write off the next 30 days. It really is a nonsense to do this on that basis.

[phil nw.]

Just to underline John's post and PM's earlier comments one liners are not useful,especially writing off a whole month.

There's just one or two that tend to do this so please let's keep this thread informative by putting a bit more model content in such posts to back up your views.

Thanks.

[tinybill]

The number of times, at any time of the year, some folk look at ONE run from GFS and then write off the next 30 days. It really is a nonsense to do this on that basis.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

all i say  john its not looking hot and  dry at  the  moment!!

[ANYWEATHER]

The number of times, at any time of the year, some folk look at ONE run from GFS and then write off the next 30 days. It really is a nonsense to do this on that basis.

I think we can say that the nearer term the models turning everyone unsettled by Friday, Precip charts are useless in this scenario,the trend is for unsettled conditions , and I always look for trends, and both ecm and gfs are holding hands on this....as you say John, why people write off the next month is beyond me, details even in the near time frame will change.....

[William of Walworth]

Thanks for those NHC explanations, John and Gael_Force --- I'm not often a stormwatcher so that earlier post caught me out really.

 

Interesting post from Alex re possible (?) trough retrogression. Just been looking at some recent output and for now, I'd be very reluctant to predict any kind of detail for next weekend and beyond. So I find myself agreeing with ANYWEATHER ...beware of FI, for the moment.

Edited July 27, 2014 by William of Walworth

[William of Walworth]

 

 

All in all, looking unsettled - not cool in the south but with rain or showers never too far away. Oddly enough, I've seen comments that August can be a very wet month.

 It certainly has been in past years yes. Is there any reliable support yet, synoptically, for this August turning out similar? I'd be very cautious about calling a washout or not for the month one way or the other so early on.