Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards

[TonyH]

aye its madness when will it shift read MET has the same warning tomorrow surely not it will shift by then wont it 48 hours heavy rain could be bad. 

 

dont worry my weather station on side of flats get cascade effect on downpours so it put it out slightly but if I adjust it effects normal rainfall  gone to 79 mm now

Should have cleared/ fizzled by morning. Cleethorpes appears to have had under 20mm today.

Edited July 10, 2014 by TonyH

[Lauren]

So BBC has just shown the forecast, it almost looks as if this band gets to the eastern most point of Essex before reversing back over the SE!

[lassie23]

So BBC has just shown the forecast, it almost looks as if this band gets to the eastern most point of Essex before reversing back over the SE!

That would explain the dry sunny(ish) day I've had, instead of the washout that was forecast!

[Cloud 10]

Big storm over Germany for a change.

 

uk_ir.gif

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

 

Groundhog day.

 

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

[TonyH]

Groundhog day.

 

uk_ir.gif

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

Same place in Germany the wettest spot in Europe for the second day running too due to those perhaps:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?R=310&LEVEL=140&ART=niederschlag&TIME=all&WMO=10542&LANG=en&SI=mph&CEL=C

[Mokidugway]

German super cells ,they won't be happy till they get 7 !!!....

[lassie23]

German super cells ,they won't be happy till they get 7 !!!....

Brazil got one!

[Mesoscale]

German super cells ,they won't be happy till they get 7 !!!....

Too soon? hahaThe rain is moving in a very weird direction, hardly moving at all.

[Lauren]

According to the Beeb it's going to turn back on itself shortly and come over again.

[LeeKay]

Not uk based, but lightnigs going mad at Dortmund Airport, again!

 

http://www.dortmund-airport.de/index.php?id=1170&cam=2&L=0

 

[Knoxgar]

awesome flash rate here (20 per minute) and 1 cm hail!

[Mokidugway]

awesome flash rate here (20 per minute) and 1 cm hail!

a mild storm for Germany then😜😜 Edited July 10, 2014 by Mokidugway

[carl1980]

Watching Düsseldorf airport webcams ,, frequent lightning there

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

http://www.dus.com/dus/webcams/

 

 

Watching Düsseldorf airport webcams ,, frequent lightning there

 

There's an ominous funnel shaped object in the distance, may just be an optical thing but made me wonder a bit.

 

Awesome storm they have there, not seen any forks yet tho

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Lightning getting more frequent off the Suffolk coast heading Northwestwards...

[alibabba]

Has pee'd down all day here not a minutes let up and still going wish it would bugger off seeing how it's not producing any thunder or lightening

[Ben Sainsbury]

Highest CAPE and LI's that we've seen all year?!

[William Grimsley]

Highest CAPE and LI's that we've seen all year?!

ukcapeli (1).png

WOWZERS! Going to France the day after looking nearly hot with very high instability!

[Harry]

Highest CAPE and LI's that we've seen all year?!

ukcapeli (1).png

 

No I don't think so but certainly the most promising opportunity for my part of the world which so far this year has been extremely quiet.

 

Pressure seems generally quite high though the GFS seems to suggest perhaps some 'thundery lows', currently suggesting one over NW France leading to numerous areas of convergence, notably across the SW and over N France. No jet in the picture so organisation/severe potential seems limited.

 

For me, these are far from 'classic' synoptics and care should be taken. Furthermore, it appears looking at the storm risk chart these will be diurnally/CZ driven events with any extensive and potential overnight beefy action reserved for the continent. Therefore, could be very localised affairs as well as reliant on some good strong heating (therefore lack of cloud cover, which hopefully the prevailing high pressure will assist with).

 

In short, its great to see decent temps and CAPE/LI currently in the offing, but I'm holding my breath certainly until Monday/Tuesday at the very earliest before any shred of excitement begins to materialise.

Edited July 11, 2014 by Harry

[Chris K]

Highest CAPE and LI's that we've seen all year?!

ukcapeli (1).png

 

I wish....

 

If those charts were showing the highest CAPE etc etc over Scotland and Ireland right now, then I'd be more optimistic. It would allow any shifts SE to cover most of the UK then rather than a France/Belgium storm fest with us convective fans here gritting teeth under the leftover filth from dead MCS' 

Edited July 11, 2014 by Chris K

[Knoxgar]

a mild storm for Germany then

 

hehe, true, but today even better chances for my region!

Edited July 11, 2014 by Knoxgar

[Mokidugway]

hehe, true, but today even better chances for my region!

if I got 5 percent of your storms i would be a happy man !!.... Edited July 11, 2014 by Mokidugway

[Mokidugway]

Some decent cape for Lake District ,combined with sea breezes should be interesting !!

[Karl83]

Looks alright for parts of the UK next week at the moment, but been here before havent we. Hopefully the 2014 Bristol Storm Deflector will fail should it happen.

[Neilsouth]

Yeh Yeh we shall see, been awhile since we've had a good FORECASTED storm