iceland Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

[The PIT]

Very little activity overnight according to the plots. Live cam shows eruption still going. Caldera still sinking.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Possibly not the forum for this question, but has anyone considered the effect of all that SO2 (and other gasses) being released?  Admittedly most is at a low level, but just the heat is enough to produce thermals that will carry the pollution considerably higher.  

 

I would expect most of the low level stuff to be leached out by low pressure systems running through, but we've had 3 weeks of pretty calm weather, anyone know if there's anything on the web that shows hemispheric SO2 at different heights?

[Yarmy]

Very little activity overnight according to the plots. Live cam shows eruption still going. Caldera still sinking.

 

It will get backfilled later: I think the IMO are running short on resources.

 

 

Re: SO2 I did some rough calculations a while back. The estimated output is 10,000-20,000 tonnes of SO2 every day so let's say 0.5Mt a month. That's significant but not a lot in comparison to the total output of SO2 through industrial processes (the most recent figures I found were about 15Mt per year for the US and more for Europe). 

 

Although heavier than air, the SO2 molecules will have no trouble penetrating high into the atmosphere (the same is true for CFCs: see http://www.epa.gov/ozone/science/myths/heavier.html).  However, unless more fissures open and the volume emitted increases I can't see it having a significant impact on the weather. Of course, more fissures opening is a real possibility.

[jonboy]

The amount of SO2 is considerably higher than most think. SO2 is one of the key building blocks for ozone so it is likely that we will see a greater amount of ozone in the NH. More ozone should lead to an increase in SSW events which obviously helps with colder winters. With other patterns perhaps indicating a colder pattern this year anyway any increase in warming events can only bode well for a truely memerable winter in my opinion.

[karyo]

The amount of SO2 is considerably higher than most think. SO2 is one of the key building blocks for ozone so it is likely that we will see a greater amount of ozone in the NH. More ozone should lead to an increase in SSW events which obviously helps with colder winters. With other patterns perhaps indicating a colder pattern this year anyway any increase in warming events can only bode well for a truely memerable winter in my opinion.

I agree but it will be better still if low pressure moves away from Iceland as the wind and precipitation tends to prevent the SO2 from reaching the atmosphere.

[jonboy]

 

It will get backfilled later: I think the IMO are running short on resources.

 

 

Re: SO2 I did some rough calculations a while back. The estimated output is 10,000-20,000 tonnes of SO2 every day so let's say 0.5Mt a month. That's significant but not a lot in comparison to the total output of SO2 through industrial processes (the most recent figures I found were about 15Mt per year for the US and more for Europe). 

 

Although heavier than air, the SO2 molecules will have no trouble penetrating high into the atmosphere (the same is true for CFCs: see http://www.epa.gov/ozone/science/myths/heavier.html).  However, unless more fissures open and the volume emitted increases I can't see it having a significant impact on the weather. Of course, more fissures opening is a real possibility.

I saw that JP posted a while back that it had reached 60000tons per day and averaged 20000perday since the start whereas europe general produces about 14000 tons a day so on average a 30% increase and perhaps a short term increase of 300%

[SteveB]

Thursday

02.10.2014 00:36:59 64.672 -17.459 5.1 km 4.8 99.0 4.8 km NE of Bárðarbunga

 

Thursday

02.10.2014 06:39:32 64.671 -17.476 2.3 km 4.6 99.0 4.2 km NE of Bárðarbunga

 

A couple more big ones overnight....

[Yarmy]

 

I saw that JP posted a while back that it had reached 60000tons per day and averaged 20000perday since the start whereas europe general produces about 14000 tons a day so on average a 30% increase and perhaps a short term increase of 300%

 

 

Yes, the 14000 tonnes figure does seem to be in the ballpark looking at this:

 

http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/eea-32-sulphur-dioxide-so2-emissions-1/assessment-3#toc-1

 

There's an amusing chart further down which shows how well individual countries have done at reducing Sulphur Oxides emissions. Virtually everyone is down, but poor old Iceland has seen a 300% increase. I think there are extenuating circumstances though.  

[karyo]

There appears to be an increase of smaller earthquakes in Bardarbunga over the last couple of hours according to IMO. Unless of course the wind has dropped which helps the detection of the quakes

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Thanks Yarmy and Jonboy for the comments re SO2, will be interesting in many ways as we have an Easterly QBO, a stalled (or at least a slow and low) El Nino, and what, to date has looked like the Polar Vortex getting going a little earlier than normal.  So conflicting signals with the QBO and SO2 going for a colder regime whereas the other two point to a milder setup.  Battleground perhaps?

 

Add in an extra 30% SO2 to the atmosphere, mix thoroughly and watch Chaos Theory in action.

 

In the meantime, it doesn't look as though there have been any quakes at the fissure for several hours,  some small ones at Big Bad Barda, just awaiting another M4+.

Edited October 2, 2014 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Is there snow now on the cam ?

[Allseasons-Si]

Is there snow now on the cam ?

Yes,EE

 

a possible +4 EQ coming in,could be nearer 5 looking @ the plots.

 

gps still sinking i see,how much further will this go!

 

2.2 unchecked,that could be it ,@1.1km

 

http://baering.github.io/

 

oh!!,just a 3 then @10.4km

Edited October 2, 2014 by Allseasons-si

[karyo]

Yes,EE

 

a possible +4 EQ coming in,could be nearer 5 looking @ the plots.

 

gps still sinking i see,how much further will this go!

 

2.2 unchecked,that could be it ,@1.1km

 

http://baering.github.io/

 

oh!!,just a 3 then @10.4km

check the upgrade on the IMO website. :-)

[Allseasons-Si]

check the upgrade on the IMO website. :-)

yeah,i knew it would be bigger+ a 4.1 too

 

gps broke!!!,stuck @13:55 utc.

[karyo]

yeah,i knew it would be bigger+ a 4.1 too

 

gps broke!!!,stuck @13:55 utc.

Indeed!

 

The plume looks lovely right now.

By the way, snowstorm is expected to affect Iceland in the next 24 hours so the webcam would be interesting in more ways than one!

[Allseasons-Si]

Indeed!

 

The plume looks lovely right now.

By the way, snowstorm is expected to affect Iceland in the next 24 hours so the webcam would be interesting in more ways than one!

Sorry for late reply,had to do a bit in the garden

 

yes plume looks nice and thanks for the weather info,still no gps though

 

also a lot of activity under barda today,what's stiring

 

.

[Allseasons-Si]

Aaaaaaaahhhh!!

 

some lovely convection going on there on cam 1

 

http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga/

 

poss another 4 EQ within a hour,stay tuned,waiting for check on that 2 on here

 

http://baering.github.io/

 

although situated @the fissure,but that could change

 

gps still broke

Edited October 2, 2014 by Allseasons-si

[john pike]

hi allseasons

 

cam 1 looks impressive

 

also click this link

 

http://en.vedur.is/media/jar/event_numbers_01102014_1500.pdf

 

for such a small area these figures are mind boggling

[Allseasons-Si]

hi allseasons

 

cam 1 looks impressive

 

also click this link

 

http://en.vedur.is/media/jar/event_numbers_01102014_1500.pdf

 

for such a small area these figures are mind boggling

Caldera WOW

 

LOL,didn't know who you was for a second there John,you've changed yor pic,i like it.

Edited October 2, 2014 by Allseasons-si

[john pike]

hi allseasons

 

thought i would have a change

 

looking at cam 2 now

 

http://en.vedur.is/media/jar/event_numbers_01102014_1500.pdf

 

that looks impressive

[Allseasons-Si]

hi allseasons

 

thought i would have a change

 

looking at cam 2 now

 

http://en.vedur.is/media/jar/event_numbers_01102014_1500.pdf

 

that looks impressive

Yep got both 1&2 open she looks stunning tonight

 

oh!!,stop shaking cam 2,i am trying to find the lava frog

 

[karyo]

I feel frustrated with the GPS! Why is it not working?

 

Lol at the lava frog!

Edited October 2, 2014 by karyo

[Allseasons-Si]

I feel frustrated with the GPS! Why is it not working?

 

Lol at the lava frog!

Hi karyo

 

the long range gps still works though

 

 

but that's not good enough,i have been trying to find out but no success,sorry.

[karyo]

Hi karyo

 

the long range gps still works though

 

barc_gps_all_is.png

 

but that's not good enough,i have been trying to find out but no success,sorry.

hi Allseasons, I know what you mean, the long range is not as helpful.

[Allseasons-Si]

hi Allseasons, I know what you mean, the long range is not as helpful.

I have been searching for ages for a alternate vertical measurement of the caldera and only found 1,yes you gessed it,IMO