Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[mushymanrob]

The cold ramping and hunting has started in the MOD thread. And so it begins...

 

yep. it makes reading what we are likely to get worthless, no wonder the tabloids come up with the nonsense they do if they read the ramped rubbish posted in there.

[mushymanrob]

Yeah, thank god. It was becoming rather boring in the MOD thread. About time things got exciting.

 

the posters in the md thread dont control the weather you know. so any excitement in there doesnt mean anything exciting is going to happen.

personally i prefer realism, because the weather will do what the weather will do despite what the cold rampers predict.

someone ought to take note of what is ramped up, and note the culprits, just to see how accurate they actually are.

[hec1]

yep. it makes reading what we are likely to get worthless, no wonder the tabloids come up with the nonsense they do if they read the ramped rubbish posted in there.

Sorry buddy but your favourite type of weather is long gone, not long before the unsettled and snow arrives :yahoo:

Edited October 10, 2014 by hec1

[Seasonal Trim]

the posters in the md thread dont control the weather you know. so any excitement in there doesnt mean anything exciting is going to happen.

personally i prefer realism, because the weather will do what the weather will do despite what the cold rampers predict.

someone ought to take note of what is ramped up, and note the culprits, just to see how accurate they actually are.

I had a reply ready that probably would have been removed so I'll just say this. I follow other forums other than this one, and in one or two I've visited I've noticed that you also visit. And low and behold you do exactly the same there as you do here. If its not moaning to others about their weather preference it's insulting people due to their beliefs. You really are a something else mushy!

[Spikecollie]

Stay nice guys.  This is a lovely forum and we need to keep it happy and comfortable for everybody

[phil nw.]

Yes come on folks let,s keep the moans about the weather charts not each other.

If you must go down that route better to use a pm.

Thanks.

[knocker]

I just took Mushy to mean that anyone's preference for a particular weather type shouldn't influence their analysis of the models. In my case analysis is perhaps a bit of a liberty with language.

[Eugene]

Yes, at this time of year my attention is drawn east to see if a decent cold pool is being built. The ECM is certainly showing that:

http://www.meteociel...H0-192.GIF?13-0

Something for every warm weather fan on this run.

 

 

Yes I agree, forget cold in this country.

 

 

 

 

 

[knocker]

How will activity in the Atlantic affect UK weather?

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/10/15/how-will-activity-in-the-atlantic-affect-uk-weather/

[mushymanrob]

Sorry buddy but your favourite type of weather is long gone, not long before the unsettled and snow arrives :yahoo:

 

my favourite type of weather?... what is that exactly? because it alters with the seasons, and its not so much the cold i dislike as the rabid ramping to ridiculous levels that goes on. it wouldnt be so bad if the % of cold lovers in the general populace was reflected in those on the forums...but it isnt!

 

I had a reply ready that probably would have been removed so I'll just say this. I follow other forums other than this one, and in one or two I've visited I've noticed that you also visit. And low and behold you do exactly the same there as you do here. If its not moaning to others about their weather preference it's insulting people due to their beliefs. You really are a something else mushy!

 

i only am a member of this weather site.

if half of your post was true, id be facing 'warning points' or bans... im not. go figure! , anyway this is a model moaning forum so ill moan about model related topics as much as i want thank you!

 

I just took Mushy to mean that anyone's preference for a particular weather type shouldn't influence their analysis of the models. In my case analysis is perhaps a bit of a liberty with language.

 

how refreshing to have someone who actually understands what i posted. if more people did then i wouldnt get embroiled in so many petty arguments by people out to score cheap points...

Edited October 16, 2014 by mushymanrob

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please stick to "Model related" banter/moans/ramps.

Many Thanks, PM.

[snow freak]

I predict that in the foreseable future..... we will have weather

[phil nw.]

Ok clean slate,the childish exchanges have been removed.

 

As previously requested please keep moans or whatever to the models not about others.

Any more issues please report instead of responding here.

 

Thanks all. 

[Barry12]

Stay nice guys.  This is a lovely forum and we need to keep it happy and comfortable for everybody

 

So you live in France and Yorkshire? but have been weird when tour de france was in yorkshire.

 

the models are bad, snow is coming

[Barry12]

The coldest November in 100 years is possible looking at the models

[knocker]

Oh dear. The time for the winter break has arrived.

[mushymanrob]

The coldest November in 100 years is possible looking at the models

 

so is the warmest.... that big fat high to our south has often been expected to sit there for a while.

 

Oh dear. The time for the winter break has arrived.

 

that would be a shame.

we ought to start our own 'unbiased' thread for realistic model watching. the md thread supposed to be for that but ends up being a 'spot the cold evolution' thread giving a hugely misleading view of what the weather might do.

[snowtimenow]

Super boring weather at the moment and most of the forums are extremely quiet its driving me mad.

[Eugene]

Super boring weather at the moment and most of the forums are extremely quiet its driving me mad.

 

 

This super mild is driving me mad, people say its too early for cold well its too late for the kind of weather we saw yesterday it should be a fresh 11C/12C by day by now and 5C at night.

[snowtimenow]

This super mild is driving me mad, people say its too early for cold well its too late for the kind of weather we saw yesterday it should be a fresh 11C/12C by day by now and 5C at night.

From now up and till xmas its the best part of the year for me, I like the seasons autumn and winter and what comes with it Halloween Bonfire night and xmas but its the same as it was last year it  just doesn't have the same feel to it because of this boring mild weather. Xmas just isn't xmas without the icy cold morning's I know its not winter yet but I just can't help feeling like its going to be the same again as it was last year. .   

[phil nw.]

This weather is very typical for autumn. There is a lot of competition between air masses at this time of the year, so it is very normal for us to get very mild periods of weather for a time - we see it in almost every autumn! Okay, this October mild-spell has lasted a bit longer than normal, but it's nothing out of the ordinary really. People always think that because it's not cool, wet and windy, it's not autumn.

 

It's just like we can see very cool conditions last on into April.

I say enjoy it,get out and about before the dark days and heavy cloud of Winter arrive.

The outlook with the expected high next week may mean a bit more of this although fog may become an issue later.

Certainly plenty of time yet before straining at the leash for bitter winds and snow.

[johnholmes]

This thread, okay it is the moaning thread, but it is almost as bad as the one for the most boring months. Many of the entries in there are about years that none of the posters have experienced so reading either another persons' version or making up their own based on data. In this thread how anyone can say the weather is boring is a bit of a laugh. Perhaps they mean there is no sign of biting cold northerlies with the prospect of frost and snow? An ex hurricane is going to affect the country, its exact track not yet clear. Is that not interesting on a weather forum? The will the OPI or not be an indicator come 31 October for the coming winter. Have a look in the world wide weather for interest if you feel it is boring in your own back yard. There is always weather of interest somewhere now we have access to the web. Be it rain, wind, snow or whatever that is your favourite. Stacks of web cams to watch the weather around the world. Watch the snow advance south on them, all sorts of things to interest you if you are a genuine weather fan I would have thought. Do your own statistics for your area, either from your own weather station or the nearest one, when was the last time this or that occurred, how long since a particular event, I am never bored for very long with so much to play around with in terms of actual weather and statistics.

Failing all else get outside in the garden, go for a walk, lovely round here this morning as the wind got up and started to blow the leaves down, many with lovely colours catching in the sun.

 

end of jh sermon!

Edited October 19, 2014 by johnholmes

[Wilxy]

Hello All.

 

ECM is still keen on a pressure rise from the beginning of next week and ending up right above the UK and Europe, but the GFS is backing down on the idea of pressure rising and has been trending towards low pressure making more of a impact, I have been trying to understand the difference and I have noticed that the GFS is also indicating of stronger blocking over northern Scandinavia on recent outputs possibly forcing low pressure to track more south into the Atlantic.

 

Thanks Everyone and happy model watching!

[Milhouse]

GEM wants to bring the 15c isotherm back

 

[summer blizzard]

I hear we are in for a weak El Nino this winter which would mean a higher chance of the usa (north america) having a relatively milder and wetter rather than colder snowy winter again which can only be good news for the uk? I think the myth that the usa snow storms reaches the uk a few weeks later was well and truly busted earlier this year, we got rain instead but hopefully the northern blocking will return this time.

 

So it's Goodbye Polar Vortex, into the shredder for you and hello El Nino

 

No Frosty. 

 

An El Nino actually supports a +PNA over the USA which tends to support a frigid winter for the east. 

 

When we get the AO on board a +PNA can be brilliant for the UK since the jet tends to exit the US further south.

 

What we got last year is what the USA calls a blow torch. Jet Stays south until the north east quadrant and then turns north too early. That just happened to us in the Atlantic.