Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Richard2901]

Carol Kirkwood is right about 11C being around average here at this time of year. Only difference is 11C is the average maximum. I had a minimum of 11C last night which is just vile. Especially since it was the 4th double digit min in 8 days  The average min is 5C at this time of year so to describe the current dross as typical autumn is ridiculous.

 

After that horribly mild night it was cloudy all day but no rain, max of 14C, still 13C now. How could anyone enjoy anything like this? It's as dull as ditchwater. 

 

October really has been horrific. Extremely wet and dull with almost relentless southerly winds and mildness concentrated on the overnight periods. Just like 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2011 and 2013. Yet another autumn with little colour due to endless mild gunk

 

Nothing below 3C this month here and it looks increasingly likely from the mind-numbingly awful model output that we could get to November with the coldest night of "Autumn" having been in August 

 

[Yarmy]

I hope the OPI is actually on to something for winter, because the only potential I can see in the charts at the moment is for a big fat Euro High to remain in situ for weeks on end.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I hope the OPI is actually on to something for winter, because the only potential I can see in the charts at the moment is for a big fat Euro High to remain in situ for weeks on end.

Keep it there for now, and then move it to Scandinavia come mid December, I'll be happy then!!

[Barry12]

Horrific charts for next week, 20C looking likely in a very warm southwesterly flow, I can't be the only one thing absolutely sick to death of this and it is far from normal on such a persistant basis, you may get the odd very mild day in second half of October but not most days for weeks on end, seriously very concerning and people expect a cold winter, yeah right, more chance of Man Utd suddenly becoming world beaters.

 

oh no, It's mild in october so that means winter will be mild!

[MPG]

oh no, It's mild in october so that means winter will be mild!

 

Wasn't it November 2009 we had record breaking warm temperatures in the UK? Can someone confirm?? It was a month preceding one of recent cold winters.

[Tony27]

oh no, It's mild in october so that means winter will be mild!

yeah and it was mild last october and we all know what winter was like, every year we get stupid posts like this, there's no point being positive till we actually see some cold and snowy charts appearing in the models

[knocker]

yeah and it was mild last october and we all know what winter was like, every year we get stupid posts like this, there's no point being positive till we actually see some cold and snowy charts appearing in the models

 

How come being positive automatically defaults to cold and snow? If everyone was positive regarding analysis of the model charts regardless of the in built bias the model thread would be a better area for everyone.

[Barry12]

yeah and it was mild last october and we all know what winter was like, every year we get stupid posts like this, there's no point being positive till we actually see some cold and snowy charts appearing in the models

 

oh no, a mild October was followed by a mild winter, so that means every mild October a mild winter will follow. Yep, we do get stupid posts like this every year.

Edited October 24, 2014 by Barry95

[LomondSnowstorm]

Wasn't it November 2009 we had record breaking warm temperatures in the UK? Can someone confirm?? It was a month preceding one of recent cold winters.

Nov '09 was the 3rd warmest November ever I believe, and included the wettest 72 hour period in history, in the Lake District - a truly awful month. Novembers preceeding very cold winters are, broadly speaking,no more or less likely to be cold than any other November.

I don't see much point in being either massively optimistic or pessimistic at this stage purely based on medium range models - it's the 24th of October. To me things look to be going broadly to plan, so from a 'coldie' perspective I don't see much reason for pessimism based on the synoptic pattern for the next fortnight or so, but equally there's no point getting overexcited by FI charts. I don't think the charts were showing that much interest at this stage even in the ridiculously early first severe cold spell of November-December 2010.

[MP-R]

Wasn't it November 2009 we had record breaking warm temperatures in the UK? Can someone confirm?? It was a month preceding one of recent cold winters.

 

Autumn 2009 was indeed a mild one. In fact the final week of October saw similar temperatures to what are being forecast for next week, albeit from a drier southerly direction. Then November was very Atlantic-dominated with many instances of rPm and Pm zonality and a brief very mild spell around the 20th when Cumbria suffered major flooding. The Atlantic weather continued into December before the major switcharound around the 10th.

 

I personally wouldn't panic on the model front yet. Yes, the charts are hardly seasonal for October with a very long draw of tropical air lasting an unusually long time but it's not like October doesn't bring this sort of weather. The jet has already dug south a few times during this month which gave us a more seasonal first half of the month so there's no saying it won't happen again, and possibly to surprise us.

[Tony27]

oh no, a mild October was followed by a mild winter, so that means every mild October a mild winter will follow. Yep, we do get stupid posts like this every year.

as this is the UK there is far more reason to be pessimistic than positive about a cold winter, whilst things can change very quickly i would not be betting on a cold winter, so you can be blindly positive if you like but i won't be until i see cold and snowy synoptics on the charts at T120-T144 and even then things can go badly wrong, if i was living in russia and it was 20c now i wouldn't be moaning as it most certainly will get cold and snowy there in winter at some point

Edited October 24, 2014 by Tony27

[throwoff]

Ah that old chestnut

The October anomaly charts which preceded the 10 most -AO winters. Drier and warmer than normal for the UK with heights from our locale stretching up to the Arctic.

Also you really think the a wet and stormy October heralds a cold winter? How did last year go? 

 

 

Exactly this, I am still not entirely sure that you can read one weather pattern as leading to another, but it is clear a mild autumn leads to a cold winter more times historically than a stormy cool autumn has.

[Nick L]

The basics are this:

 

- For the next couple of weeks, the zonal train looks set to continue.

- This doesn't necessarily have a bearing on the coming winter.

- Long-range forecast models are generally going for a milder winter, but as we know they're not infallible by any stretch of the imagination.

- The OPI suggests we can be optimistic, but this parameter has not yet been peer-reviewed so it's worth taking the OPI with a pinch of salt

 

and the biggie...

 

- It's still 5 weeks until winter. A hell of a lot can change in that time.

 

In other words, no conclusions can be drawn yet, and anyone doing so is either brave or downright daft!

[mushymanrob]

 

Carol Kirkwood is right about 11C being around average here at this time of year. Only difference is 11C is the average maximum. I had a minimum of 11C last night which is just vile. Especially since it was the 4th double digit min in 8 days  The average min is 5C at this time of year so to describe the current dross as typical autumn is ridiculous.

 

After that horribly mild night it was cloudy all day but no rain, max of 14C, still 13C now. How could anyone enjoy anything like this? It's as dull as ditchwater. 

 

October really has been horrific. Extremely wet and dull with almost relentless southerly winds and mildness concentrated on the overnight periods. Just like 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2011 and 2013. Yet another autumn with little colour due to endless mild gunk

 

Nothing below 3C this month here and it looks increasingly likely from the mind-numbingly awful model output that we could get to November with the coldest night of "Autumn" having been in August 

 

 

the only flaw in your agument (referring to the current weather pattern as being typical autumnal weather is ridiculous) is a pretty huge one actually. you base the whole idea of it being ridiculous on temperatures alone.

temps might be hovering a couple of degrees above the average, but so what? typical autumn weather is regarded by most i would think as unsettled, with periods of strong winds and rain (especially mid season). thats exactly what we have had!!

 

its only weather....

[Lauren]

Autumn 2009 was indeed a mild one. In fact the final week of October saw similar temperatures to what are being forecast for next week, albeit from a drier southerly direction. Then November was very Atlantic-dominated with many instances of rPm and Pm zonality and a brief very mild spell around the 20th when Cumbria suffered major flooding. The Atlantic weather continued into December before the major switcharound around the 10th.

 

I personally wouldn't panic on the model front yet. Yes, the charts are hardly seasonal for October with a very long draw of tropical air lasting an unusually long time but it's not like October doesn't bring this sort of weather. The jet has already dug south a few times during this month which gave us a more seasonal first half of the month so there's no saying it won't happen again, and possibly to surprise us.

 

And this is why I am baffled at the panicking. I think this year has been remarkably similar to 2009 (with a hotter summer!).

Edited October 24, 2014 by Lauren

[Lauren]

The basics are this:

 

- For the next couple of weeks, the zonal train looks set to continue.

- This doesn't necessarily have a bearing on the coming winter.

- Long-range forecast models are generally going for a milder winter, but as we know they're not infallible by any stretch of the imagination.

- The OPI suggests we can be optimistic, but this parameter has not yet been peer-reviewed so it's worth taking the OPI with a pinch of salt

 

and the biggie...

 

- It's still 5 weeks until winter. A hell of a lot can change in that time.

 

In other words, no conclusions can be drawn yet, and anyone doing so is either brave or downright daft!

 

Thanks for summing up simply for a weather term/chart understanding dummy!

[davacr123]

A cool/cold run from the mid-day run for the start of November, With the Jet pushing a little further South. Bringing bout's of unsettled Polar Maritime air over the UK.

 

Would have been forum melt down for a chart like that last year lol

[knocker]

My thought for the day, Exterminate, Exterminate>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

[legritter]

Some very interesting charts in the further outlook ,beefy could sum it up .hoping for some action weather and to see the total of posters in Model thread to increase from the half dozen or so as of late .got a gut feeling November could be far more interesting than autumn so far .But we will probably see our friend the Azores high put a few Spanners in the works ,lets hope MR bartlett decides to party early on this late autumn /winter .so get the straws ready ,sharpen the razors ,prozack at the ready ,and order in loads of salt ,Stellas all round cheers gang   

[knocker]

I don't seem to be able to find 'coldies' in the Met. Glossary. Are they some sort of Sect?

[Eugene]

To people getting excited over GFS 06Z, lowland snowfall is very rare in southern UK in the first half of November, you have a higher chance of snowfall in first half of April.

[Eugene]

Wednesday and Thursday looking not too mild on recent GFS runs with temps not far from average.

[mushymanrob]

Wednesday and Thursday looking not too mild on recent GFS runs with temps not far from average.

 

average would suit me fine...

[SnowObsessor90]

Model watching has become a thing for now throughout the seasons but there's  just something that feels right about the Models rolling out 1 hour earlier at this time of year.

Edited October 26, 2014 by SnowObsessor90

[snowblizzard]

Surely, this pattern (SSW exceptionally mild airstream from South Atlantic) that we've been enjoying in the South for some time now cannot possibly be sustained all the way through Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb

So, the prospects of a pattern change during the winter months (hopefully to a much colder/wintry one!) should be much better this year?

We didn't see a single snow flake in Tonbridge last year!

Edited October 27, 2014 by snowblizzard