Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Paul]

Anyone can disagree with opinions in the thread & provide their own view, also anyone can choose to take note of the posts they wish to take not of, and ignore the ones they don't.

 

I'm very sure that the vast majority of people recognise that it's an open discussion forum, it'll flow where the tide takes it, and at this time of year the tide is very often cold slanted, with people looking for cold & snow, that's just the way it is. Some people love it, some don't, but that's why we provide alternative discussions (such as the in depth thread etc), other than that & keeping things running smoothly, on topic etc, I don't think there's much more we can be expected to do. 

[knocker]

I agree entirely with the comments made by DuncanK and Mushy. I would also add that the sycophancy in the thread is breathtaking.

[MPG]

indeed 'held to account' wasnt the best phrase to use.

i think the problem is that the cold bias and praise of relating posts give the wrong impression to the casual observer who doesnt have sufficient knowlege to determine who is posting realistically. when 'big gun a' posts 'theres cold coming if this that the other happens' and gets 50 odd 'likes' the casual observer reads that as a 'given'.

those of us who want a realistic view, just wont get it.

I'm sure your view would be different if a 'big gun' wetted your appetite with a possible surge of warm air from Africa.....

 

I don't have the knowledge, but the posts relating to a possible cold spell are easy to understand.......IE 'a possible cold spell'. These posts are very very interesting, and much can be learnt.........these posts are a benefit and keep the model output thread interesting. 

[Steve C]

I agree entirely with the comments made by DuncanK and Mushy. I would also add that the sycophancy in the thread is breathtaking.

 

I remember the quality of the forecasts through the last winter... Hence I read the postings with a shovel full of salt.

[MPG]

I agree entirely with the comments made by DuncanK and Mushy. I would also add that the sycophancy in the thread is breathtaking.

Sycophancy? Who's flattering who and who's the influential people you refer to ? Its nearly winter on Netweather, block, ignore, leave, its easy guys.

[Polar Maritime]

Ok.

 

So please let's get back on topic before an all out war explodes due to the weather..

 

Many Thanks, PM.

[knocker]

I'm sure your view would be different if a 'big gun' wetted your appetite with a possible surge of warm air from Africa.....

 

I don't have the knowledge, but the posts relating to a possible cold spell are easy to understand.......IE 'a possible cold spell'. These posts are very very interesting, and much can be learnt.........these posts are a benefit and keep the model output thread interesting. 

By talking about 'big guns' you are doing a complete disservice to a few other regular posters that I can think of. who post quite detailed and informative posts without the hysterical bias. As far as I'm concerned the only 'big guns' are the professional forecasters who post.

 

 

Sycophancy? Who's flattering who and who's the influential people you refer to ? Its nearly winter on Netweather, block, ignore, leave, its easy guys.

 

Excellent advice.

[Paul]

I agree entirely with the comments made by DuncanK and Mushy. I would also add that the sycophancy in the thread is breathtaking.

 

But this is neither a moderation or a model related thing. If people want to like a post they can, if they want to agree with a post they can, disagree they can, and so on - every post gets the same platform. That's what a community is about - people voicing opinion, agreeing/disagreeing with opinion and so on. We have a report button on every post, so anyone who thinks a post is off topic/out of line can report it - I can tell you we've had one report from the model thread this week and it was about a post which was talking about the daily express, so very off topic, but that's it.

 

So where's the issue? Is it that some posts get more likes/replies than others, and you think that (your or someone elses) 'more deserving' posts should get the same attention? If so, it all sounds a bit juvenile to me.

[knocker]

Just to get one thing clear before I take the excellent advice proffered . I most certainly do not think my posts should get more attention, I leave the ego trip to others.

Edited November 5, 2014 by knocker

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Who cares who gets how many likes or whatever. Get a life people. You make yourselves sound well sad & jealous attention seekers. That is all.

[Polar Maritime]

Any more off topic posts will be deleted. Any issues please pm a mod, Do not respond here.

 

I will kindly ask again, Please keep on topic. 

 

PM

Edited November 5, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Mapantz]

I have no problem with people hunting for cold at this time of year. What I don't like, is the model thread turning in to the hunt for cold. There is simply nothing out of the ordinary for Autumn showing up on the charts but I see posts that are basically a 'like' magnet for coldies who are biased. I hate skipping through posts in the mod thread that show a picture of a chart at T+384 with the bomb smiley and 11 likes, or something similar. Surely, whether you're a coldie or a mildy, posts should contain no bias toward a weather type? Just a simple explanation of what the current model run shows? Most of the time, it does happen, but then silly season arrives!

I do use the report button if needed but sometimes I feel like I maybe abusing it if I check the mod thread each morning, around this time of year, so I don't bother unless it's rude or name calling.

I want the model discussion thread to be just that, model discussion, not 'The hunt for cold discussion thread' or 'The hunt for heat' to keep things balanced.

[Yarmy]

I have no problem with people hunting for cold at this time of year. What I don't like, is the model thread turning in to the hunt for cold. There is simply nothing out of the ordinary for Autumn showing up on the charts but I see posts that are basically a 'like' magnet for coldies who are biased. I hate skipping through posts in the mod thread that show a picture of a chart at T+384 with the bomb smiley and 11 likes, or something similar. Surely, whether you're a coldie or a mildy, posts should contain no bias toward a weather type? Just a simple explanation of what the current model run shows? Most of the time, it does happen, but then silly season arrives!

I do use the report button if needed but sometimes I feel like I maybe abusing it if I check the mod thread each morning, around this time of year, so I don't bother unless it's rude or name calling.

I want the model discussion thread to be just that, model discussion, not 'The hunt for cold discussion thread' or 'The hunt for heat' to keep things balanced.

 

Completely agree. People just need to police themselves. I don't mind the bomb gifs, BOOMs, etc, but it belongs in here.

 

The best advice for anyone though is to just to read the charts yourself and form your own opinion. And my opinion is that the consistent story has been significant vortex disruption in the NH, but wet and average for the UK. Which is more or less what the MetO says.

 

Oh, and I wish people would stick to readable fonts. One post looked like it had been written by 12th Century monks.

[Gael_Force]

I've not seen any posts which are as you suggest - there are posts which are 'reading between the lines' of what the models are showing to look further ahead or to perhaps look at where the models may not be quite right currently, but there's nothing wrong with that. If there were, we may as well just have one person posting every day with a factual run-down of what the models show, it's a discussion forum, opinions around the subject are the point - you and anyone else are welcome to make them, so long as they're actually about the topic in hand and not just digs at the people who's opinions you may not agree with.

 

Totally agree with this. I can think of a weather forum where a comment was made to the effect that only the factual daily run down on the models was required - whilst of value - it is not what a weather forum is about and the model thread there is now but a shadow of its former self.

 

We are not in the real world here - for the bulk of the forum population, we want extremes of every weather type with the balance skewed to cold. I'm not sure cold is really that important other than it is required for snow production. I haven't seen the same enthusiasm expressed for very cold, dry conditions under winter inversions.

 

Who cares whether the posts are essays on teleconnections or a collage of charts from the winters of our dreams - it keeps everyone happy and coming back for more - just what a community should aim for. .

 

Just to add, a fantastic post in MO from Snowking - the type of post that will deserve every one of the likes it gets.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81718-model-output-discussion-31102014-and-beyond/?p=3064436

Edited November 5, 2014 by Gael_Force

[Milhouse]

Back on topic. Looking as far as 384h on the GEFS mean, i dont see any sign of a cold snap capable of bringing much in the way of wintry stuff.

 

[Ali1977]

Still no long range models going for UK cold, MET office not seeing any this month or early next. Some Signals like snow cover/opi/ strat are good but the professionals and models are seeing nothing cold. Shame, but hopefully wrong .

[Snowman.]

Back on topic. Looking as far as 384h on the GEFS mean, i dont see any sign of a cold snap capable of bringing much in the way of wintry stuff.

 

 

At that far those are next to useless.

 

Atm all were looking for are signs and currently there is a lot:

 

-Fragmented PV

-Wave breaking

-Scandiheights/Aleutain lows

-Possible warming.

 

 

Things are looking good if you want some of the cold stuff but no one is looking for it at this time of the year and if they're then the should expect to be disappointed. As many have said this year is holding lots of similarities to the winter of 2009/10 now thats not to say that can happen but it does show that things aren't strictly normal currently (compare charts were seeing to last year)

 

 

In which case of you taking a chart in far reaches of the models length means very little at all because I would wager a bet that by the time of 21st of november it would look nothing like that. 

[jules216]

normaly dont post much myself here and do appreciate the experts posts like snowking, lorenzo and others, one thing i ve observed though that is essential for us getting cold is to loose the euro high(trash) as it can persist for too long, lets have it now rather then december, it does fit in with cohens november preasure anomally, in

europe in recent winters there was a pattern of cold weather in early december, mild christmas period and very cold again after mid january which can last long, so i think early cold via north and late cold via east is what may happen, hopefuly cold goes far enough to reach us in UK and IE,cheers

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looking so forward to the commencing winter and all the fun of the model watching up and coming!

Let's all be adults and respect each others opinions and thoughts. Attention seeking does not fit in well within this community and often tends to spoil the fun and positivity. Facebook is the only place where that belongs!

[conor123]

Oh joy here we go, another month of bland yellow upper nothingness and 8-12c days zzzzz the past 3 months have been exceptionally bland and grey even for Telford's standards. 

[mushymanrob]

See.... I said that when we get average people will moan about it... Lol

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

For once I'm getting excited about the 2nd half of November bringing the November CET below average and setting us up for a cold winter to follow. The background signals are all manifesting themselves nicely in the charts.

[Woollymummy]

am I right in thinking that every time a big dump of cold air pours down off the Actic in our direction, then an equally large blob of warm air swaps places with it and melts a bit more of Greenland? Has winter always been like that? I get a feeling I am watching a car crash in very slow motion, and no matter how much I would like a bit of snow, maybe I would settle for muddy or sunny uk if it meant the arctic could stay as cold as it can. no amount of slushy rubbish tobogganning and woolly hats can justify polar bears having to walk around on rocks to hunt for shellfish.

[Nouska]

am I right in thinking that every time a big dump of cold air pours down off the Actic in our direction, then an equally large blob of warm air swaps places with it and melts a bit more of Greenland? Has winter always been like that? I get a feeling I am watching a car crash in very slow motion, and no matter how much I would like a bit of snow, maybe I would settle for muddy or sunny uk if it meant the arctic could stay as cold as it can. no amount of slushy rubbish tobogganning and woolly hats can justify polar bears having to walk around on rocks to hunt for shellfish.

 

Yes, you are right about the warm air advection ridging up over Greenland being the upside of our cold pool but no need to have any worries or guilt about enjoying your UK snow. There will be no melt at a time when the UK is capable of seeing lowland snow -

even if you see big areas of red (warm) anomalies on the weather charts it is still well below freezing.

 

When it does matter in late spring and summer, you'll be under one of these horrible green blobs of low heights that have plagued some of the very wet British summers of recent years.

 

Get the woollies out of the cupboard, dust off the sledge and enjoy anything that comes along in the way of snow.

[karlos1983]

With all that's going on, and with the setup looking really good for coldies (potentially) and with support from the Strat in terms of warming, I am quite optimistic about the 2nd half of November and the first 3rd of Winter in general.  

 

Just remember, TELL NOBODY!! 

Edited November 7, 2014 by karlos1983