Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[MR EXTREMES]

what a beauty 

 

[mushymanrob]

i predict theres going to be mass disappointment, as ever people are getting wound up, excited over possible fi synoptics. i cant see much out of the ordinary...yes it will get colder, the synoptics might deliver something wintry by the end of the month....

 

or

 

it might simply not happen. we might be left in a westerly/wet chilly regime.

 

northern blocking in early december was predicted on here, whether that produces a cold spell or 'below average' remains to be seen, and it might just as easily disperse as easily as build.

[Frosty_wsm]

With all that's going on, and with the setup looking really good for coldies (potentially) and with support from the Strat in terms of warming, I am quite optimistic about the 2nd half of November and the first 3rd of Winter in general.  

 

Just remember, TELL NOBODY!!

Yes winter looks like starting on a much better footing than last year and with the very informative posts from Steve m and the other very knowledgeable posters it's fascinating watching how it all unfolds, whatever the outcome is in the end.

[snow freak]

am I right in thinking that every time a big dump of cold air pours down off the Actic in our direction, then an equally large blob of warm air swaps places with it and melts a bit more of Greenland? Has winter always been like that? I get a feeling I am watching a car crash in very slow motion, and no matter how much I would like a bit of snow, maybe I would settle for muddy or sunny uk if it meant the arctic could stay as cold as it can. no amount of slushy rubbish tobogganning and woolly hats can justify polar bears having to walk around on rocks to hunt for shellfish.

the earth's climate will do what it wants.  I'm sure there have been episodes in the earth's long history when the arctic was free of ice and snow during the summer months and then been emcompased in ice.  Earth's climate is cycacle and always will be.  The bears will survive somehow and this is evolution.

[hec1]

i predict theres going to be mass disappointment, as ever people are getting wound up, excited over possible fi synoptics. i cant see much out of the ordinary...yes it will get colder, the synoptics might deliver something wintry by the end of the month....

 

or

 

it might simply not happen. we might be left in a westerly/wet chilly regime.

 

northern blocking in early december was predicted on here, whether that produces a cold spell or 'below average' remains to be seen, and it might just as easily disperse as easily as build.

the heavy snow and gales are coming.

You'll love it.

[mushymanrob]

the heavy snow and gales are coming.

You'll love it.

 

they may well do..... but atm theres no tangible sign of it, just alot of 'ifs' and 'buts' that might lead to something much colder. on the other hand one could make an equally compelling case for a run of mild weather, except theres no one who wants to do that.

 

ill love it?... yeah i can see the beauty of a decent snowfall, its abit of fun for 36 hours or so, and we need some cold in winter whether i like it or not. i like a good blizzard, but ill not get excited about that until its a real possibility. getting hysterical and excited now is a waste of hot air.

[Hocus Pocus]

 

they may well do..... but atm theres no tangible sign of it, just alot of 'ifs' and 'buts' that might lead to something much colder. on the other hand one could make an equally compelling case for a run of mild weather, except theres no one who wants to do that.

 

ill love it?... yeah i can see the beauty of a decent snowfall, its abit of fun for 36 hours or so, and we need some cold in winter whether i like it or not. i like a good blizzard, but ill not get excited about that until its a real possibility. getting hysterical and excited now is a waste of hot air.

I have to agree until the MetO start showing something in their extended forecasts my feet will remain firmly planted on terra firma, lots of potential going forward for cold yes but that's all it is as of yet.

Edited November 7, 2014 by Hocus Pocus

[festivalking]

I for one am gutted that these potential charts are happening so soon in the season, as the addiction of checking charts and weather forums has started much earlier. The wife rolls her eyes with talk of FI, 240, GFS, coldies and more often than not fiasco! Will it won't it we'll never know till it happens.......or not

[Frosty_wsm]

I'm sure there's a sort of beauty in wet and windy weather.

Are you on a wind up all the time or what, just wondering?!

Do you think any cold will just suddenly appear over the UK out of nowhere lol. I think you know full well the post you were replying to was about what's going on in the NH at the moment, which shows the building blocks that could bring cold this way at some point.

[The Post-modern Winter]

Are you on a wind up all the time or what, just wondering?!

Do you think any cold will just suddenly appear over the UK out of nowhere lol. I think you know full well the post you were replying to was about what's going on in the NH at the moment, which shows the building blocks that could bring cold this way at some point.

 

Note how he's picked the chart showing Europe in isolation, whilst completely ignoring the incredible Northern hemispheric picture on the date in question. Purga's certainly not stupid, despite constantly playing dumb regarding posters looking/commenting on the bigger picture. . 

 

Edit: He is incredibly predictable though. A sharper, subtler Terrier if you will. 

Edited November 7, 2014 by The Post-modern Winter

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please only base discussion around the Models, Not other members please.

 

Thanks, PM.

[knocker]

I notice in the other thread someone has been accused of "taking it all out of context", I must admit that has come as complete surprise to me as I thought "taking it all out of context", was a prerequisite for the thread.

Edited November 7, 2014 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

I notice in the other thread someone has been accused of "taking it all out of context", I must admit that has come as complete surprise to me as I thought "taking it all out of context", was a prerequisite for the thread.

 

Only the many that listen to the few Knock.. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

It's annoying when you want to focus on another mission - e.g: playing a video game, but end up allowing MOA (Model Output Addiction) to take over. In fact, MOA seems to be an easy bug to catch during the Winter months... :/

[Woollymummy]

Not just the winter, now camping in summer has to be preceded by a thorough check for any approaching hurricanes, then all other potential hurricanes, then a few pages about hurricane formation, etc.

I will be quite sad if we never get another winter like last year, I found it very amusing to see so many storms chasing each other. But I do want it to be cold and snowy this year.

[Barry12]

It's annoying when you want to focus on another mission - e.g: playing a video game, but end up allowing MOA (Model Output Addiction) to take over. In fact, MOA seems to be an easy bug to catch during the Winter months... :/

 

exactly the same as me!

Not just the winter, now camping in summer has to be preceded by a thorough check for any approaching hurricanes, then all other potential hurricanes, then a few pages about hurricane formation, etc.

I will be quite sad if we never get another winter like last year, I found it very amusing to see so many storms chasing each other. But I do want it to be cold and snowy this year.

 

Did I read that correctly?

Edited November 7, 2014 by Barry95

[Bobby]

 

they may well do..... but atm theres no tangible sign of it, just alot of 'ifs' and 'buts' that might lead to something much colder. on the other hand one could make an equally compelling case for a run of mild weather, except theres no one who wants to do that.

 

ill love it?... yeah i can see the beauty of a decent snowfall, its abit of fun for 36 hours or so, and we need some cold in winter whether i like it or not. i like a good blizzard, but ill not get excited about that until its a real possibility. getting hysterical and excited now is a waste of hot air.

 

Yeah, don't see the point in getting excited (or worried) weeks, even months in advance because of the 'big picture', 'building blocks'.... when a cold snap, month or even a whole winter can live or die on a few miles here, a degree or two there. Overall poor winters with rubbish building blocks can produce against the odds, a cracking cold and snowy spell that will live long in the memory while other winters with everything in place and full of potential end up as disappointing duds.

 

I will refrain from excitement until there is good confidence snow is coming - which may not be until T+6 the way things usually go. T+6 currently looking a bit rubbish

[knocker]

I see the disease has gone viral

 

pic.twitter.com/qL96RY9yJY

[CanadaAl]

I understand we all need to keep a balance on the models but these are the best November charts we've seen since 2010. I'm not saying we'll see anything like that but it could lead to something exciting as we head into December

[Weather-history]

Every time I see these latest models of the northern hemisphere

The old ITV World of Sport logo keeps coming into my head

[summer blizzard]

Not dissimilar setup..

 

[Woollymummy]

Ah yes, I want and hope for snow, always, every year, but having proper extreme weather on the Telly every night, netweather.tv -coloured Jetstream pics on every decent weather forecast, people starting to have whole shows discussing the effects of climate and hydrology on where people should be living in the UK..... It was great! So I will be not be sad if we have another windy rainfest this winter, but I would much rather see if you lot are all right and things turn colder.

[mushymanrob]

Lol dont you just love the way the gfs is ignored until it shows cold weather! The fickleness of folk! Lol

[knocker]

And don't forget the 06z run is rubbish.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Lol dont you just love the way the gfs is ignored until it shows cold weather! The fickleness of folk! Lol

 

Not by me, I find the GFS the most accurate during nov-Feb period, certainly was last year, refusing to show cold, to me the outlook is mild, typical autumn weather for foreseeable future, GFS suggests mainly mild