Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[knocker]

Ryan Maue â€@RyanMaue 12m12 minutes ago

So much for that strongly negative AO. All the models gonna bust

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue

[Bristawl Si]

Ryan Maue â€@RyanMaue 12m12 minutes ago

So much for that strongly negative AO. All the models gonna bust

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue

Who's he?

[MPG]

Ryan Maue â€@RyanMaue 12m12 minutes ago

So much for that strongly negative AO. All the models gonna bust

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue

Its well documented the AO was to rise from negative. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Whoopee!

 

 

I keep animating forward in the hope of a start to the season but not even a frost here yet (NW)

 

Ian

[Iceaxecrampon]

The October and November of 1978 rank among in the top 20 warmest for their respective months in records going back to 1700. The ensuing December was colder than average while the following January and February rank 15th and 21st coldest respectively!

All in all, following a mild October and November, we got the last winter to get anywhere near 62/63 and 46/47 for intense cold, being more than 6C below the Dec-Feb average since 1700 

Yes

 

 

Lovely

 

Ian

[Yarmy]

Well one thing I am sure about we don't want another winter like those two.

 

On here, those who want exactly that are legion. 

 

Such a winter might be too much even for me: be careful what you wish for and all that. From what was being reported a couple of weeks ago, the national grid probably wouldn't have enough capacity to cope and no doubt they'd just shut the schools for weeks on end.

 

Late 70's style would do nicely. Not that there's anything like that showing on any of the output for the time being.

[knocker]

On here, those who want exactly that are legion. 

 

 

Not sure they would be quite so keen if they had been around at the time.

Edited November 13, 2014 by Paul
Quoted post was removed

[Evening thunder]

I think some would do well to remember November 2009... and what followed.

 

In contrast November last year was actually slightly colder and drier than average.. before the Atlantic went into overdrive in December.

 

So you could say a wet/mild November this year would be rather different to last year.. of course what follows could be the same as last winter, but perhaps we don't have such grounds to suggest it will be based on similarities with how last Autumn evolved.

Edited November 13, 2014 by Evening thunder

[Iceaxecrampon]

On here, those who want exactly that are legion. 

 

Such a winter might be too much even for me: be careful what you wish for and all that. From what was being reported a couple of weeks ago, the national grid probably wouldn't have enough capacity to cope and no doubt they'd just shut the schools for weeks on end.

 

Late 70's style would do nicely. Not that there's anything like that showing on any of the output for the time being.

 

Yes - all these energy sapping XBOXES PlayStations iPODS  iPADS NINTENDOS - What will we do!!!!!!

[MP-R]

Well both the GFS and ECM agree one some pretty wild cold zonality after the 21st. A long way off I know but nothing screams blowtorch fortunately, just instead very wet and often windy. I won't be panicking for a December cold spell until nothing shows up in the models come December.

[Gael_Force]

Yes - all these energy sapping XBOXES PlayStations iPODS  iPADS NINTENDOS - What will we do!!!!!!

 

Cannot imagine a worse scenario: all these kids off school with planned (or not) power cuts preventing them from being hooked up to their electronic nannies.

 

The most encouraging signs in the latter stages of the GFS is that it does not consolidate the vortex in Canada/Greenland as would be the norm for the time of year - instead, it progresses above us and ends with lobes scattered around the polar regions

[Frank Trough]

Well both the GFS and ECM agree one some pretty wild cold zonality after the 21st. A long way off I know but nothing screams blowtorch fortunately, just instead very wet and often windy. I won't be panicking for a December cold spell until nothing shows up in the models come December.

 

That'll be the same "cold zonality" that didn't verify the whole of last winter despite the phrase being thrown around continuously. "cold" zonality is rare. By the time it gets down to t+48 it'll be bog standard westerly stuff. Wet roads, steamed up windows, damp sheds etc etc. Yawn.

 

Bring on December and something drier, colder and more interesting (please). Whatever happened to sunny, crisp days and frosts? Did the last Labour Government spend them all?  

[MP-R]

That'll be the same "cold zonality" that didn't verify the whole of last winter despite the phrase being thrown around continuously. "cold" zonality is rare. By the time it gets down to t+48 it'll be bog standard westerly stuff. Wet roads, steamed up windows, damp sheds etc etc. Yawn.

 

Bring on December and something drier, colder and more interesting (please). Whatever happened to sunny, crisp days and frosts? Did the last Labour Government spend them all?  

 

Not quite true, there were a number of instances of cold zonality last winter, particularly in the second half of the season, granted not to the extent that models protrayed, but certainly cold zonality. One such spell brought the only snow to lowland areas on 11th February.

[Winter Frost]

That'll be the same "cold zonality" that didn't verify the whole of last winter despite the phrase being thrown around continuously. "cold" zonality is rare. By the time it gets down to t+48 it'll be bog standard westerly stuff. Wet roads, steamed up windows, damp sheds etc etc. Yawn.

 

Bring on December and something drier, colder and more interesting (please). Whatever happened to sunny, crisp days and frosts? Did the last Labour Government spend them all?

Thats not entirely true.

We had two snowfalls here and there was as much as 8 inches of snow at 200m around January/February time. Cold zonality can be good here. I am expecting some snow from it soon.

[TwisterGirl81]

Not quite true, there were a number of instances of cold zonality last winter, particularly in the second half of the season, granted not to the extent that models protrayed, but certainly cold zonality. One such spell brought the only snow to lowland areas on 11th February.

 

Yes to area's of the North as per usual i'm sure, we barely had frost last winter, not that I was too bothered as I loved the storms!

Edited November 13, 2014 by TwisterGirl81

[TwisterGirl81]

I've just got a feeling that this winter will be similar to last winter but maybe not have as many monster lows like we had last year.  We will ahve deep cold coming off of the eastern us seaboard which is the same as last year.  I don't mind as I like a good storm but it would be nice if we had some snow this year in the south!  Proper settling snow is pretty rare in Exeter, the last time we have proper snow was the winter of 2009/10 what a great winter that was by our standards here anyway.

[snow freak]

Not quite true, there were a number of instances of cold zonality last winter, particularly in the second half of the season, granted not to the extent that models protrayed, but certainly cold zonality. One such spell brought the only snow to lowland areas on 11th February.

sorry but last year was absolutely dire.  i don't think we even had more than one or two very light frosts during the entire winter season.  Certainly no snow or even sleet.  It has to be said that although the UK might have one or two periods of snowfall in most winters, by and large winters in the UK are more often than not, pitiful affairs and I have long stopped getting myself excited over the remote prospect of anything remotely wintry in the current run of mild seasons.

[mushymanrob]

personally i cant see this current pattern lasting all winter, but for the forseeable its pretty wet and windy. id be surprised if we didnt get a lengthy anticyclonic settled spell before the spring. but for now its pretty wet, unfortunately.

[MP-R]

sorry but last year was absolutely dire.  i don't think we even had more than one or two very light frosts during the entire winter season.  Certainly no snow or even sleet.  It has to be said that although the UK might have one or two periods of snowfall in most winters, by and large winters in the UK are more often than not, pitiful affairs and I have long stopped getting myself excited over the remote prospect of anything remotely wintry in the current run of mild seasons.

 

1) I agree with everything you just said and 2) I think you missed the point of my post. My post was indicating the instances of cold zonality last winter, which quite rightly rarely brings snow to southern Britain or frosts for that matter, but it does bring bright showery conditions with hail shower accompanied by thunder and lightning and temperatures in the 2-7C range, better than the mild variety. This happened a few times in between late December and mid February. It's no news how amazing it was that the UK didn't come out even milder given the length of zonal weather last winter.

 

Wrt the models, the conditions shown are a pretty standard fare for November, conditions which I would expect a lot more at this time of year than January and February. Fingers crossed for a pattern change in December. Not to say that December will be like 2009 but that month began very disturbed. I remember gales and heavy rain on the 7th but by the 11th it was cold and frosty with fog.

[Barry12]

^^^ The ex cold pool from the US is an irresistible force that is going to spill into the Atlantic. Timing issues as to how long it takes to override the block to the NE. The longer it takes the more the longevity of the zonal Atlantic flow. So as Mucka said, a quick flush, and we can send that PV lobe to the NE and allow for heights to build to our south. The 12z op just delays the lower heights so even by D13 we are still under the westerly flow:

 

gfsnh-0-312.png  D15: gfsnh-0-360-2.png

 

The models haven't got to grips with what happens at day 6-7, so what day 13-15 show are completely irrelevant.

[johnholmes]

sorry but last year was absolutely dire.  i don't think we even had more than one or two very light frosts during the entire winter season.  Certainly no snow or even sleet.  It has to be said that although the UK might have one or two periods of snowfall in most winters, by and large winters in the UK are more often than not, pitiful affairs and I have long stopped getting myself excited over the remote prospect of anything remotely wintry in the current run of mild seasons.

 

as is to be expected at the latitude you are and the fact that we have x,000 miles of ocean to our west. It is only 13 November and as I've said before conditions can and do change at times. Look at 2009-10, 2010 Nov-Dec compared to the same time that year, 1946, even 1962 early November. The anomaly charts show heights slowly rising over the next 6-12 days or so. As to what happens beyond then we have to look at how the teleconnections at varying levels of time are showing. This is where it does become intriguing. most professional models/centres suggesting fairly much opposite to what non professional outputs are suggesting. For cold lovers patience folks. Take an interest in how the models deal with the next 3-4 weeks, long range outputs and shorter term, lots to watch and learn from.

Edited November 13, 2014 by johnholmes

[Thunder Snow]

So I take it the models have gone in the right direction for cold fans again.

[Snowstorm1]

seems very 2010ish to me I think in maybe two weeks time the rewards maybe reaping in...

[Iceaxecrampon]

The models haven't got to grips with what happens at day 6-7, so what day 13-15 show are completely irrelevant.

 

That Old Chesnut - So what about NWr - or any -  for that matter long range forecasts?

[Iceaxecrampon]

So I take it the models have gone in the right direction for cold fans again.

 

......not really.

 

 

Dusting of snow on Scafell Pike at 3209ft asl

 

15% chance of  - or 85% chance of not.

 

Ian