Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[joggs]

Well i just cant see our wet n windy outlook changing anytime soon whilst north and east americas cold is feeding the jet.It woule be different if the jet was to wonder down to spain(really south)and give chance of retrogression of the sceuro high.Just to much vortex in the wrong place imo.

[Barry12]

That Old Chesnut - So what about NWr - or any -  for that matter long range forecasts?

 

Just getting bored of people posting day 16 charts as 'proof' that things are going to happen...

[ANYWEATHER]

Just getting bored of people posting day 16 charts as 'proof' that things are going to happen...

A simple Answer...is don't look at the thread!!!    

[Barry12]

A simple Answer...is don't look at the thread!!!    

 

That's not possible :rofl:

[ANYWEATHER]

That's not possible :rofl:

Turn the power off

[Iceaxecrampon]

A simple Answer...is don't look at the thread!!!    

 

 

Thats why its so fascinating on the forums! - its the weather  - a governance of moods and synoptic conditions that affect so many of us wanting scenarios to suit our own ways of life.

 

I am  never more content on a personal basis  - putting no one else at risk and knowing my own safe limits -  than walking out into arduous and challenging (blizzard) experiences -   looking for these has become an obsession.

 

Ian

[meathead]

So begs the question, was the BP oil spill the main cause of the cold winters back in 2008,2009,2010?

[summer blizzard]

So begs the question, was the BP oil spill the main cause of the cold winters back in 2008,2009,2010?

 

Given that it did not happen until April 10, no.

[snow freak]

All this gloomy mild wet weather is putting me off the weather.

[swfc]

Iwas really hopeing these recent charts would come to be but it looks like the atlantic will win out.Fed up of the rain already!!!!

[mushymanrob]

not so long ago we were crying out for some rain..... now we have had enough to see us through into the new year. as a weather 'fan' i do like abit of these gloomy atlantic driven days, wind and rain is fairly normal for november, but the weather gods seem to overdo it and theres no end in sight.

[Hocus Pocus]

not so long ago we were crying out for some rain..... now we have had enough to see us through into the new year. as a weather 'fan' i do like abit of these gloomy atlantic driven days, wind and rain is fairly normal for november, but the weather gods seem to overdo it and theres no end in sight.

Indeed, we can only hope we don't follow the same path as last year. I'm looking for a nice frosty high with plenty of daytime sunshine, the polar opposite of what we've got now.

[phil nw.]

Indeed, we can only hope we don't follow the same path as last year. I'm looking for a nice frosty high with plenty of daytime sunshine, the polar opposite of what we've got now.

Yes that's something we haven't seen a lot of in recent years and it would be a nice change.I do like crisp frosty weather with a bit of weak Winter sun.

Current outlook is more of the same unfortunately.Too much rain is bad enough but the low light levels that sometimes go with the heavy cloud at this time of year makes it depressing.

[mushymanrob]

Indeed, we can only hope we don't follow the same path as last year. I'm looking for a nice frosty high with plenty of daytime sunshine, the polar opposite of what we've got now.

 

tbh id prefer an easterly, that would dry things up quicker then an anticyclonic spell, alas neither is likely in the near future as most indicators suggest.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS looks a bit odd in FI, high pressure late Nov/early Dec? cannot see it, the most westerly/wettest time of the year, I expect nearer the time GFS will start trending towards low pressure and rain

 

would love to be wrong mind you

[summer blizzard]

GFS looks a bit odd in FI, high pressure late Nov/early Dec? cannot see it, the most westerly/wettest time of the year, I expect nearer the time GFS will start trending towards low pressure and rain

 

would love to be wrong mind you

 

2005? Plenty of high pressure around then. 

 

Pleasing output tonight with signs that pressure may be hanging on or building, probably enough to produce some chilly fog and frost type weather.. Granted still in FI on the GFS and only the UKMO has a flow slack enough in the medium term.

 

[Snowboard Tennyson IOW]

Yep all very 2013/14 - models consistently flirting with cold

Way out of a reliable time

Frame ! Forget the models just look out the window.

[Sweatyman]

Some suggestions of high pressure building near the UK which would bring some sharp frosts ideally

considering we had TWO frosts here last winter that would be welcome!

[Methuselah]

considering we had TWO frosts here last winter that would be welcome!

That many!   Not much cold, on the models...

[Biggin]

 

My advice is to hold tight be patient and pay particular attention to the posts from Chiono, Snowking, Recretos, Tamara and of course Mr Murr because it is from these that we will be able to build the best picture of what is likely to happen and believe me it could be very good indeed.

I agree, to mull over and to take into consideration the opinions of all of those mentioned will give you a fair view of what is gonna happen, may happen and isnt gonna happen is a wise move. Sorry Mods from a watcher who doesnt post er because.

[Yorlum11]

A watched kettle never boils as they say. A little patience is needed as all the signals give us hope for Dec onwards.

[JP1972]

Yes that's something we haven't seen a lot of in recent years and it would be a nice change.I do like crisp frosty weather with a bit of weak Winter sun.

Current outlook is more of the same unfortunately.Too much rain is bad enough but the low light levels that sometimes go with the heavy cloud at this time of year makes it depressing.

 

I know we're all different but I actually don't mind this weather, I work indoors so only venture out to go to work, go to the shops and ferry the kids and wife about as and when needed.

 

This weather, while pretty miserable, doesn't stop me from doing the things I want to do such as meeting up with mates for a few beers etc.

 

I'm definitely not a reader of the charts but do take an interest in the weather.

 

I like the seasons though, and I enjoy living on a small island as we do because the weather can throw up different scenarios at various times of the year. As much as I love going abroad, imagine living in some of these holiday resorts where for example Summer is just a long sun/heat fest day in day out? It wouldn't do for me as I like variety of all kinds when it comes to the weather. I love the extremes as much as I do the grey and grim days we're experiencing now.

[snowking]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014111418/gfsnh-0-252.png?18

 

Best WAA ever lol-

 

this will only end 1 way.

Thought I would drop this in to here rather than clutter up the main thread but - indeed!!

Might be a good challenge for someone to find anything close to this in the archives - there are a few examples available

SK

[Richard2901]

The current weather is beneath contempt and it's making me tired and fed-up in the extreme having to suffer this repulsive dark gloomy dross day in day out. No temperature range at all. It's just stuck around 10C all the time day and night with appalling light levels. Horrible and depressing.

 

The only other November to produce this type of garbage was November 2011. Absolutely nothing like this pre-2000 when even horrid November's like 1997 still managed something of a diurnal range and not even the maxima were in double figures off this type of set-up.

 

Just 2 minutes of sunshine in the past 4 days and the model output suggests a similar total for the next week or more. It just looks vile as far as the eye can see. Thank goodness I've got 10 days in Tenerife coming up though just like my Summer holiday in Croatia was plagued by abnormally frequent showers and storms it looks like a wet spell is going to affect the Canaries from next Wednesday to Sunday coinciding perfectly with my arrival on Friday eveninghttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1684.gif 

 

Needless to say I'm not happy about that but anything would be a significant improvement on what I'm enduring at the moment. It's just the most disgusting and depressing weather anywhere on earth and if there's not a pattern change soon then it will be a repeat of December 2002 coming up.

Edited November 14, 2014 by Richard2901

[JP1972]

 

The current weather is beneath contempt and it's making me tired and fed-up in the extreme having to suffer this repulsive dark gloomy dross day in day out. No temperature range at all. It's just stuck around 10C all the time day and night with appalling light levels. Horrible and depressing.

 

The only other November to produce this type of garbage was November 2011. Absolutely nothing like this pre-2000 when even horrid November's like 1997 still managed something of a diurnal range and not even the maxima were in double figures off this type of set-up.

 

Just 2 minutes of sunshine in the past 4 days and the model output suggests a similar total for the next week or more. It just looks vile as far as the eye can see. Thank goodness I've got 10 days in Tenerife coming up though just like my Summer holiday in Croatia was plagued by abnormally frequent showers and storms it looks like a wet spell is going to affect the Canaries from next Wednesday to Sunday coinciding perfectly with my arrival on Friday eveninghttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1684.gif 

 

Needless to say I'm not happy about that but anything would be a significant improvement on what I'm enduring at the moment. It's just the most disgusting and depressing weather anywhere on earth and if there's not a pattern change soon then it will be a repeat of December 2002 coming up.

 

 

So you're a bit micturated off yes?