Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[draztik]

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81848-seasonal-prediction-for-winter-2014-15-for-northern-britain-based-on-large-scale-sst-sea-ice-anomalies-in-autumn-2014/#entry3071112

 

kind sir!

[kate1]

Ian Pennell's forecast, likely to be very accurate (to be fair to him it deserves to be) another  virtual snowless winter for the South

Well, I'm sure he's a great guy - but he isn't a qualified meteorologist (I don't think),  nor does he have the  credentials of other posters on NW, in terms of incorporating the latest research -  so I'm not clear why his forecast is likely to be more accurate than anyone else's. Though I appreciate that his forecast has clearly taken many hours - and full credit to him for that.

Edited November 17, 2014 by kate1

[Paul_1978]

Yes, and the Meto had no doubt whatsoever about this in their extended forecasts. A big early season win for them and it now looks much less hopeful for a cold spell in the first half of Dec.

Early December is TWO WEEKS away - that's a long time and I'm not writing it off on the 17th of November.

[JOPRO]

Back looking for cold after the summer off from models, and winters already over on the model thread according to some! See you all next winter!

[shaky]

Odd that this subject came up the other day but I readily admit this is new to me.

 

Ryan Maue â€@RyanMaue 5h5 hours ago

Explosive cyclone --> Warm seclusion + tropopause fold in Labrador Sea w/downstream Rossby wave thinning into Azores

what does this mean knocker? Would you elaborate! !

Agreed. Shannon Entropy is back to high values again; albeit other models have started leaning more towards MOGREPS somewhat faster return to progression, it's very finely balanced.

what does the mogreps model suggest fergie? Things could change just as quickly this evening on yhe 12zs! !

[David Morse]

Firstly thanks for all the support in ref to the last post I made; much appreciated. Sorry I don't couch my comments in obscure forum jargon or include all the things I look at or take in to account before posting; I'm sure I'll get better as time goes by or be beaten into submission just so I can fit in :-) .

 

Just to put the record straight: I LOVE SNOW! I'd love to see 3 foot of snow fall here in Dublin so I can get out my brand new Salomon Rocker2 90s and scoot down Bridge Street. But I'm a complete pragmatist and have been watching weather models for years and I simply don't see the weak blocking pattern developing into a "snowmageddon" or anything remotely like that; not for another few weeks at least.

 

Now considering both GFS and ECW are showing an Atlantic feed of low pressure systems winning over the weak blocking to the east and this is reflected in the ensembles....sorry for my naivety of my posts; but looks like I was right ...is it too soon to dust off my "I told you so" T-Shirt... :-) (that's a joke, don't worry I'm often more wrong than right)

 

and Mods...in future I'll keep my comments strictly on topic! 

[V for Very Cold]

Is there a NetW article on Shannon Entropy anywhere??

[Mapantz]

Is there a NetW article on Shannon Entropy anywhere??

I don't know about a Netweather article, but this is worth a read.. http://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/13/1/211/pdf

Make sure you have your concentration hat on!

[SnowObsessor90]

Chiono and others always said that this initial wave activity wasn't likely to be benfecial for the UK at this early juncture with first real shot at cold potentially coming later on in December so if you a want straw to clutch then there's that, you can't help but get the feeling that this is deja vu all over again though

[snow freak]

God, the UK weather is so monotonous.

[mushymanrob]

God, the UK weather is so monotonous.

 

is it? i think we have one of the most varied climates on the planet. imho theres an intrinsic beauty in all the weather types we get (whether i like it or not).

[knocker]

what does this mean knocker? Would you elaborate! !

what does the mogreps model suggest fergie? Things could change just as quickly this evening on yhe 12zs! !

 

I've no idea what that chart means but I posted it because the subject of a low trop below 500mb and a tropopause fold came up the other day. JH posted a couple of links explainng what a Trop fold was. I've only got one link to hand.

 

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap01/tropo.html

[fergieweather]

what does this mean knocker? Would you elaborate! !

what does the mogreps model suggest fergie? Things could change just as quickly this evening on yhe 12zs! !

Sorry - only just saw this.

It was essentially quicker to return to westerly mobility. A quick glance through 12z suites of models available at time of writing suggests others are picking-up similar notion but still much uncertainty on detail by Fri-Sat.

[Nouska]

I've no idea what that chart means but I posted it because the subject of a low trop below 500mb and a tropopause fold came up the other day. JH posted a couple of links explainng what a Trop fold was. I've only got one link to hand.

 

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap01/tropo.html

 

Hi Knocker - is this chart from the FIM the same parameter as the one Dr Maue posted on the tweet.That one is from GFS but dont see the potential temp pv=2 option on the GFS we get to view.

 

[Long haul to mild]

Some absolute classics on the model discussion thread in the last 24 hours. Apparently you can't take any notice of charts more than 5 days ahead, but in the same post the next four weeks is written off for any chance of cold weather.

 

Make me wonder if people actually read what they have typed sometimes!

 

Oh and by the way for all the people hitting the "no snow" panic button; check your calendars. it's November the 17th. It's still Autumn. For the next two weeks. And snow is fairly rare in most of the UK until at least mid December anyway.

[snowice]

Well I see the models are changing their mind again for the weekend.I think it's far to early to be looking for snow,it just goes to show you how exceptional 2010 late November December was.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Some absolute classics on the model discussion thread in the last 24 hours. Apparently you can't take any notice of charts more than 5 days ahead, but in the same post the next four weeks is written off for any chance of cold weather.

 

Make me wonder if people actually read what they have typed sometimes!

 

Oh and by the way for all the people hitting the "no snow" panic button; check your calendars. it's November the 17th. It's still Autumn. For the next two weeks. And snow is fairly rare in most of the UK until at least mid December anyway.

 

20th November 1988 - I was up to my neck in the stuff - a good albeit brief spell.

 

That's the last time I can recall anything of real significance although the high tops do and have (Scafell) had a dusting already - but I personally haven't been out in it yet.

 

ian

[SnowObsessor90]

The Ian Brown lites seem to have an extra sense of empowerment and smugness after how last Winter turned out, hope something comes along in December to shut them up for a bit.

Edited November 17, 2014 by SnowObsessor90

[Sweatyman]

The Ian Brown lites seem to have an extra sense of empowerment and smugness after how last Winter turned out, hope something comes along in December to shut them up for a bit.

yes 100% agree exactly my thoughts!

[Timmytour]

Tommorow onwards will see consistent modelling of the PV pouring into Europe and joing the ranks of those at Calais looking for a way into the UK.

Posting here instead of the model thread because the models aren't showing it yet

[snowblizzard]

The models seem to be struggling with the current pattern, lots of different solutions showing and switching on a daily basis!

I think most cold lovers on here are rather impatient expecting too much far too soon.

Rarely do we see extreme cold and snow in UK as early as November!

We've still got 12 days to go until the official Winter season begins and although I initially thought that the set-up was going to be virtually indentical to last winter, I have a feeling that it will now turn-out to be more of a changeable winter delivering periods of wet & mild but with a better chance of some colder shots and hopefully one or two decent snow events!

Unfortunately though, it doesn't look like being a 1962/1963 or 2010 type but who knows?

Edited November 18, 2014 by snowblizzard

[MR EXTREMES]

Those awaiting the ECM monthlies update with bated breath need wait no longer. So on to the tidings of great joy.

 

The 500mb anomaly day10 starts with the upper trough west of the UK and this theme continues throughout the run with low pressure in the eastern Atlantic and moving east with HP to the N/NE following the same movement in a basically zonal flow, Essentially this has surface lows running from the Greenland area east./S. east with the block further east so typically unsettled westerly affair with temps around average.

Yes certainly looks about right to be honest this ties in with what the met office and what Matt and ed suggest!

I think if anything January will be the month we get our chance.

The hype is now dying away like the slow decline of the Scandinavia ridge slowly receding back East in time.

Still a pretty stuck pattern although it takes time for strat pattern to take effect I think the vortex does look likely for a fight back .

Had high hopes for this winter but the hype and hopes of the right patterns are just not progressing in favour.

Lots of heights into Europe are really not helping to be honest I'd rather it would bugger of and it goes to show how rare Greenland blocks are.

The models are not showing nothing stalemate then as Matt suggested return of the vortex.

I for one don't see the ecm 28 day and met office being wrong and all the long range models don't see nothing remotely wintry.

Most certainly been a rather frustrating autumn but with interest but it's really not setting up the pattern needed.

[kate1]

I take considerable comfort from OldMetMan's post over on the MOD thread - in the years I've been coming on Netweather during the winter months he has been proved right more often than not. I agree that we will have to wait a few more weeks - I suspect late December may be our first real shot at proper cold.

[Mapantz]

I've quouted this in here rather than the mod thread, to save the moderator's effort in moving it..

No point analyzing anything over day 7, especially at the moment when we are in a high entropy period. The GFS has a clear habit of being to progressive with the Atlantic, as OldMetMan alluded too. Just last week it was meant to be an almost certainty that the Atlantic would win out against the block, but that never happened in the end. It seems some people on here just never learn. The GFS FI has showed a strong polar vortex for weeks now on most of it's runs, but it never makes it into the reliable time frame. No point at all worrying over FI charts.

While I do a agree to some extent, isn't a bit contradictory of you to say that when you posted this?

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81842-model-output-discussion-1200-hrs-151114/?p=3070187

[knocker]

I see the dreaded entropy has entered the fray. For those like myself who don't have a complete undrestanding of this perhaps a simple explanation.

 

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CDMQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mdpi.com%2F1099-4300%2F13%2F1%2F211%2Fpdf&ei=9jZrVNaSMNPxaKySgbAJ&usg=AFQjCNFgNfRcm3BKcPDmjQurr-GkmW3nDA&bvm=bv.79908130,d.d2s&cad=rja