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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

Polar Maritime
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hec1 Contributor

hec1

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, snow
  • Location: Glasgow
Posted (edited)

lol, theres cold appearing in FI which wont happen. same old

Edited by hec1
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

lol, theres cold appearing in FI which wont happen. same old

 

Agree though, party spoiler, but being realistic, the Atlantic will be in charge late Nov

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

here's a nice topical ramp for you, out in the far reaches of FI........if you're near the east coast, then you've hit the jackpot,....and damned cold everywhere else!

 

post-4149-0-66319000-1416094215_thumb.pn  post-4149-0-92775400-1416094234_thumb.pn

 

 

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted

Winter 14/15 has just left the rollercoaster station!

Strap yourselves in for the 3 to 4 month ride.

Stock up the fridge with your favourite tipple. It's time to ditch the tv and tune into the weather equivalent of Eastenders.

So many ups and downs.

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

here's a nice topical ramp for you, out in the far reaches of FI........if you're near the east coast, then you've hit the jackpot,....and damned cold everywhere else!

 

attachicon.gifviewimage (5).png  attachicon.gifviewimage (6).png

 

I don't mind as long as its cold can't beat frosty mornings and icy days much more seasonal :)

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Yes some fantastic charts tonight, Very nice to see! (yes i know they will change..)

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted

Is it just me or is anyone else getting 2009/2010 vibes tonight? :cold:

Yep - beginning to think there's a complete flip in model prediction for next few weeks a coming.

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Mark Neal. Seasoned

Mark Neal.

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

I was also wondering what the 1534 was, thought it was a code for a USA model.. So it's the. GFS parallel.

All aboard!!post-15543-0-91834400-1416097461_thumb.j

Fascinating and Mouthwatering charts from the. GFS pub run, certainly the word potential can be muttered, can the morning runs continue the trend. Hmm

Edited by Mark N
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Stephen_Mcr Apprentice

Stephen_Mcr

Posted
  • Location: South Manchester
  • Location: South Manchester
Posted

Good signs and although it's not without some support from other models this is from the 'pub run' often dismissed in winter as inaccurate when it doesn't show cold or what people want to see.

I'll wait a bit longer to get excited on this one. Saying that, anything from the east is often poor snow wise for this area.

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted

Get the cold in first.

A great example of the 'risk takers' views coming to fruition as opposed to the risk averse public sector safety first views winning the day.

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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted

Nitro, while 9 times out of 10 Very cold FI charts won't verify, they have to at some point. In the middle of November 10 FI started to show very cold charts, which verified! It's always FI when the models first pick up signs of a cold spell. The GFS tonight in FI showed -8 uppers over the whole of the UK which would most likely result in all precipitation being snow, that's certainly not that cold, and is a perfectly normal thing to happen with a polar maritime climate.

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

Winter 14/15 has just left the rollercoaster station!

Strap yourselves in for the 3 to 4 month ride.

Stock up the fridge with your favourite tipple. It's time to ditch the tv and tune into the weather equivalent of Eastenders.

So many ups and downs.

 

I hope not, Eastenders seems to me to be a never ending cycle of 'downs', with 'ups' very few and far between. :help:

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

Ramp...moan...or hopecast? All going on now :)

All a fantasy...been here loads a times!

 

its a waste of time imho until its moves to within a reliable timeframe with support. what does look more likely atm is some more real warmth (mildness) as we MIGHT pick up a deep rooted southerly, and this is in the semi reliable timeframe with support (anomalys)

 

post-2797-0-90488600-1416129186_thumb.gi

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snowy weather Enthusiast

snowy weather

Posted
  • Location: Crawley
  • Location: Crawley
Posted

We have been here so many times before. Does anyone remember November 2012(or around there)? The charts were amazing and showing another 63/2010 on the cards and I remember something like 1000 people were visiting this forum. In the end nothing happened. 

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

its a waste of time imho until its moves to within a reliable timeframe with support. what does look more likely atm is some more real warmth (mildness) as we MIGHT pick up a deep rooted southerly, and this is in the semi reliable timeframe with support (anomalys)

 

attachicon.gifRtavn1682.gif

 

I do not agree there mushy, but we can differ over what we feel the anomaly charts show. This is what the forum is all about, showing charts and discussing them. You or I may turn out right, you and I may both turn out wrong. You have to agree this has happened before to both of us.

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

What it does show IMHO is what has already been mentioned, and at a risk of stating the obvious, It's very dependent on the precise surface analysis. An example.

post-12275-0-03095200-1416131068_thumb.p

post-12275-0-70698200-1416131075_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Peejayem Apprentice

Peejayem

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

Get the cold in first.

A great example of the 'risk takers' views coming to fruition as opposed to the risk averse public sector safety first views winning the day.

 

What exactly do you mean by that?

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Snowboard Tennyson IOW Rookie

Snowboard Tennyson IOW

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Isle of Wight
Posted

Storms and floods in Southern France ! Southerly jet responsible? Reminiscent of our weather last year. Let's hope these signals progress and provide some long term blocking. An Easterly always brings us white stuff eventually down south.

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SnowObsessor90 Apprentice

SnowObsessor90

Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire
Posted

Personally I'm not the biggest fan of these 'holding patterns', sometimes they can lead to cold but quite often they only serve to delay the inevitable, if it's the latter which is probably still the most likely on balance then I'd much rather see the Atlantic just roll through unapossed.

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Bradowl Community Regular

Bradowl

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham
Posted

I like to see this pressure building over europe especially to north, central and eastern parts of europe should start cooling down this week and it could just fall right for us seeing a drift this way right at end of month, nearer to crimbo would be better given the warm north sea would moderate the cold for a while.

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Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

Personally I'm not the biggest fan of these 'holding patterns', sometimes they can lead to cold but quite often they only serve to delay the inevitable, if it's the latter which is probably still the most likely on balance then I'd much rather see the Atlantic just roll through unapossed.

So you would like continuous westerly winds and rain???

 

Just asking

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