Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please maintain discussion around the Models, A few post are more suited to the Winter Hopes/Thoughts thread.

 

Many Thanks, PM. 

[mushymanrob]

The current outputs are showing far more then possible cold evolutions, in fact within the reliable they are mild.

 

Edited November 12, 2014 by Polar Maritime
To remove off topic content. Any issues with members please pm the team. Thanks.

[festivalking]

With this mornings output progressing the Atlantic and keeping cool let alone cold weather at bay I would put forward the Met Office have played a blinder. Not much of a mention in there outlooks of cold. In future no excitement for me until they are on board.

[Yarmy]

FI on the 00Z's looks normal now, can see it coming off, I expect that sort of setup to dominate until high pressure arrives in April

 

There's no doubt that it looks more "traditional" and certainly there's no notable cold coming in the short to medium term. However, a few things:

 

1. It's the 12th of November.

2. The Strat modelling is very interesting.

3. If you follow Cohen's ideas (and you don't have to of course), he has suggested a period of +AO from mid-Nov to early-Dec which is in broad agreement with the FI output (and the MetO outlook).

 

Now, I don't know what winter will bring and, as we have seen recently, even with extensive HLB the cold can be well out of reach here, but I think it's a little premature to suggest the pattern is set for the next 5 months. 

[snow freak]

Guys, i somehow CANNOT see a repeat of last winter. We have a lot more going for us this year

 

QBO - Negative 

Wave 2 Activity is increasing in the strat possibly inciting a SSW within the next month 

Polar vortex is significantly weaker this time around as can be seen in the NH charts.

 

I realise these are all ifs and buts but they're the same ifs and buts that base around another 2013/2014 winter. Still 4 months to go folks! 

i hope you're right and like your optimism.  I just wish the PV would just dissapear forvever.

[MPG]

The current outputs are showing far more then possible cold evolutions, in fact within the reliable they are mild.

Edited November 12, 2014 by MPG

[starstream]

Was going to post along similar lines Yarmy but you've pretty much summed up my thoughts. I could have posted umpteen charts of zonal, Atlantic driven spells of past Novembers that actually went on to develop very decent Winters from a cold and snow lovers perspective, of course the reverse can be very true too.

But as I alluded to the other day, its the silly season again on the Model Thread, when we start to see increasingly, cases of the very infectious Novo (November) Virus, where members are affected by symptoms such as impatience, selective blindness and rapid knee-jerking, whilst trying to analyse every frame of every model run. Unfortunately these symptoms can persist throughout the Winter months and even a course of Nick Sussex's Prozac fail to improve a sufferer's condition.

Some years ago I made the decision to avail myself every Autumn of the anti- Mod Thread November Virus jab and I'm pleased to say that I now remain unaffected through the late Autumn/Winter months, by the symptoms I've mentioned above.

So when I awoke this morning and saw the overnight Model runs I wasnt tempted inwardly to shout, "that's not what I wanted to see". It is indeed what I wanted and fwiw expected to see.

I suggest to members if you want to remain unaffected by the Model Thread fever, follow those members who rationally and objectively view the Model runs, they do exist and those who post on the Strat thread too. That way you will not be led up the garden path by Pied Piper ramblings of those who unfortunately have succumbed to this seasonal illness and do, time and time again.

 

Yours calm and unaffected,

Tom.

Symptoms of Novo virus are more virulent after a previous mild/wet/devoid of snow winter.

Scientists believe this is due to the bodies natural immunity,boosted normally by snowfall, to be at a low ebb.

Recommended treatment contact Dr Nick Sussex,ask for a short term double dose!

[Bobby]

I bet Richard from Aberdeen is loving the weather up there at the moment!

[karlos1983]

It's no surprise to me that the models are showing nothing particularly cold, anyone who read yesterday's met office update will have noticed there is nothing cold in the pipeline, they even dropped the cold signal for the north which applied to later next week and the generally unsettled pattern continues out to the end of november and into december bar the odd touch of frost and fog patches between weather systems with temperatures close to average and milder at times. I haven't posted recently because I didn't want to get sucked into the hype that some FI charts created. I know this won't be popular, nobody on here desires cold weather more than me but until the met office hint at a pattern change then I won't build my hope up.

 

Hey Frosty, good to see you posting, your optimism is missed in here from my point of view!! 

Don't be too downbeat, all the signals regardless of what the MetO have to say imo, point to a completely different winter to last year. Drop into the Strat thread for example.  Come Mid December I think this room will be buzzing!

Lets not forget it is still November (Autumn) and already we have had some excitement from the models, didn't come off this time, but here's to the next bite at the cherry 

Karl

[terrier]

Hey Frosty, good to see you posting, your optimism is missed in here from my point of view!! 

Don't be too downbeat, all the signals regardless of what the MetO have to say imo, point to a completely different winter to last year. Drop into the Strat thread for example.  Come Mid December I think this room will be buzzing!

Lets not forget it is still November (Autumn) and already we have had some excitement from the models, didn't come off this time, but here's to the next bite at the cherry 

Karl

but the met office has called this upcoming spell spot on. There is nothing remotely cold in there extended range. The models look to be shaping up for a westerly Atlantic flow to set up. And i wouldn't be surprised to see the mets lrf for winter been near the mark in my opinion.

[SnowObsessor90]

I have to say the temptation to book a pre Christmas wintry holiday is becoming all the more stronger at the minute, as for being patient well I'm just not sure whether it's worth taking a chance on things eventually working themselves out after the farce that was last year.

[knocker]

Shock therapy is also recommended but can initially cause agitation.

 

[Frosty_wsm]

It's no surprise to me that the models are showing nothing particularly cold, anyone who read yesterday's met office update will have noticed there is nothing cold in the pipeline, they even dropped the cold signal for the north which applied to later next week and the generally unsettled pattern continues out to the end of november and into december bar the odd touch of frost and fog patches between weather systems with temperatures close to average and milder at times. I haven't posted recently because I didn't want to get sucked into the hype that some FI charts created. I know this won't be popular, nobody on here desires cold weather more than me but until the met office hint at a pattern change then I won't build my hope up.

What you call hype I call model discussion, as a fan of cold weather I find it interesting to see cold charts showing, no matter at what time frame, I also find the discussion about any cold charts a fascinating read, whether said charts make it into the reliable or not but there does seem to be a certain attitude on here, not from you by the way, that anyone talking about cold charts that don't make it into the reliable, that they should be hung drawn & quartered for even discussing them and that attitude I find very pathetic in all honesty.

[Captain Shortwave]

What you call hype I call model discussion, as a fan of cold weather I find it interesting to see cold charts showing, no matter at what time frame, I also find the discussion about any cold charts a fascinating read, whether said charts make it into the reliable or not but there does seem to be a certain attitude on here, not from you by the way, that anyone talking about cold charts that don't make it into the reliable, that they should be hung drawn & quartered for even discussing them and that attitude I find very pathetic in all honesty.

The trouble is we have no seen really any charts suggesting cold weather within 10 days at all. Have we seen building blocks such as high latitude blocking which could bring colder weather further down the line? The answer is yes, but there has not been any true cold charts (not even the ECM has brought 850s cold enough for snow to anywhere in the UK). 

The outlook for the time being has and always has been a generally unsettled picture with winds from mainly the south (sometimes east of south, sometimes west) but rainfall is forecast to be above average whilst temperature hover around the seasonal average.

 

We might see something more settled developing, though the models do seem to be trending away from this. So likely a good part of the rest of November will be unsettled with rain at times with temperatures continuing to be around or a little above normal. This is reflected in the Metoffice forecast and ensemble trends, not to mention the MJO as well.

[throwoff]

The kickback from last year is still being strongly felt throughout NW and no more so than in here IMO.

 

The models right now are showing wet and mild for the coming few weeks, let's be honest, that is what we expect at this time of year.

 

Searching for snow in any of the models in FI is a fools errand, I could count on one had the number of times I have seen any FI chart come off, and not one of them was in winter. 

 

Back in 2012 where we did get a little snow here and there some of the models still didn't show it at T+24 let alone T+many hundreds. 

 

We had a an exceptional November in late 2010 (which of course could be repeated, it is still too far off to accurately nail) in all honesty we shouldn't be thinking about November as snow and cold, look to December and Jan, right now the runs are poor for FI, but its FI!

[Frosty_wsm]

The trouble is we have no seen really any charts suggesting cold weather within 10 days at all. Have we seen building blocks such as high latitude blocking which could bring colder weather further down the line? The answer is yes, but there has not been any true cold charts (not even the ECM has brought 850s cold enough for snow to anywhere in the UK).

The outlook for the time being has and always has been a generally unsettled picture with winds from mainly the south (sometimes east of south, sometimes west) but rainfall is forecast to be above average whilst temperature hover around the seasonal average.

We might see something more settled developing, though the models do seem to be trending away from this. So likely a good part of the rest of November will be unsettled with rain at times with temperatures continuing to be around or a little above normal. This is reflected in the Metoffice forecast and ensemble trends, not to mention the MJO as well.

The HLB charts that could have brought cold further down the line that you mention is the charts I was on about being discussed, should have been more clear on that one, sorry. I had no problem with those charts being discussed and analysed etc, I found those posts fascinating to read even though they're not likely to happen, not yet anyway and it's still autumn so plenty of time yet. Edited November 12, 2014 by Smartie
To remove off topic content.

[Captain Shortwave]

No worries, I think at the moment we have a split in these threads, those looking to the near future and those looking at the long game.

Any way, lets hope that we don't see many more rainfall accumulation charts like these

Looking rather wet, not my favourite weather type I will add.

[Polar Maritime]

Some post have been deleted, Models Ramps/Banter/Moans please.

[Long haul to mild]

Good grief, the main model thread is hard work at the moment. Loads of pointless arguments over subjects like what constitutes mild, with the mods having to continually step in to edit posts that get out of hand.

 

We all have our own preferred weather type but the sniping gets very tedious and some of the posts are clearly worded to get a reaction. I wish people would stop it.

 

I think it must be the mild snowless winter we had last year but for me, some people are scrutinising the models so hard and getting far too worried far too early about snow chances. It's only 12th November, still firmly autumn, and I don't usually consider that there's much chance of anything wintry until we get well into December anyway.

 

Also, I don't think folks should get too hung up on seasonal model predictions; wasn't it the CFS last autumn forecasting significant HLB and cold for Nov/Dec 2013, leading to those silly "100 days of snow" headlines? Then look what happened; all to be taken with a pinch of salt.

 

It certainly will be interesting to see how the OPI index vs the long range models plays out; they are forecasting completely different outcomes!

 

In the meantime, I await the first "winter's over" post; wouldn't surprise me to see it before winter even starts!

[Bristawl Si]

I wouldnt worry too much about what the models are showing for rest of November, unless you reside on the Somerset flood plains.

Apart from Nov/Dec 2010 and Dec 09, the only other winter in my lifetime that delivered cold and snow in abundance before Xmas was Dec 81 (Imby).

In the South, at least, decent spells of cold and snow are rare this side of Xmas, relative to most Winters. Granted, North of Midlands and into Scotland a slightly different picture from some winters past.

Edited November 13, 2014 by Bristle boy

[Penrith Snow]

We shouldn't get too hung up on the very cold weather in the US, some of the coldest winters ever in the US occurred in the late 1970's and coincided with several cold winters here including 1978/79.

The coldest ever winter in the US 1976/77 was also cold and snowy here.

Andy

[johnholmes]

Not too often I post in here!

Some of the 'winters' over' posts in the model thread should have their comments from about the same time last year repeated for them and the year before and before that.

12 November according to my calendar. With 1 or 2 notable exceptions winter rarely shows much sign (widespread lowland snow and very low day and night time temperatures, again over wide areas) in November. Suggesting that because the models show something now is a guide to winter is about as un scientific as it is possible to get. Maybe I will post November CET values and notable winters following, mild or cold to show how little connection there is to surface weather as a link to 2-3 months down the line. That is not to say that matters such as SAI for one are not a useful guide to the type of winter to expect.

I'll go back to viewing only again!

[Bobby]

Browsing around I came across this post from fergieweather on 3rd December 2013, looking at prospects for the rest of the month. The 3rd most liked post on Netweather with 95 likes.
 

The current UKMO view is for a colder set-up to dominate again into the 10-15d trend period, with more progressive solutions in a minority. Possible net result is UK on western bounds of blocking with 'battleground' style issues in west thanks to periodic Atlantic incursions. Latest EC32 from yesterday is an interesting one; it also indicates a signal by Christmas for negative temp anomalies & HP to N; LP to S/SW, but the clusters do show a wide raft of potential outcomes. Anyway, very early days but tentative signs for something more blocked a bit further down the December diary.

 

10 days later, 15 days later

 
 

The predicted HP to the N for Christmas. A 930mb low

 

 

I guess it shows take anything beyond day 10 or earlier with few pinches of salt. The weather will make fools us will always has the last laugh! As a wise man said - weather forecasts are always wrong, the question is how by how much?

Edited November 13, 2014 by Bobby

[Timmytour]

Not too often I post in here!

Some of the 'winters' over' posts in the model thread should have their comments from about the same time last year repeated for them and the year before and before that.

12 November according to my calendar. With 1 or 2 notable exceptions winter rarely shows much sign (widespread lowland snow and very low day and night time temperatures, again over wide areas) in November. Suggesting that because the models show something now is a guide to winter is about as un scientific as it is possible to get. Maybe I will post November CET values and notable winters following, mild or cold to show how little connection there is to surface weather as a link to 2-3 months down the line. That is not to say that matters such as SAI for one are not a useful guide to the type of winter to expect.

I'll go back to viewing only again!

The October and November of 1978 rank among in the top 20 warmest for their respective months in records going back to 1700. The ensuing December was colder than average while the following January and February rank 15th and 21st coldest respectively!

All in all, following a mild October and November, we got the last winter to get anywhere near 62/63 and 46/47 for intense cold, being more than 6C below the Dec-Feb average since 1700 

Edited November 13, 2014 by Timmytour

[knocker]

The October and November of 1978 rank among in the top 20 warmest for their respective months in records going back to 1700. The ensuing December was colder than average while the following January and February rank 15th and 21st coldest respectively!

All in all, following a mild October and November, we got the last winter to get anywhere near 62/63 and 46/47 for intense cold, being more than 6C below the Dec-Feb average since 1700 

 

Well one thing I am sure about we don't want another winter like those two.