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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted (edited)

I do not agree there mushy, but we can differ over what we feel the anomaly charts show. This is what the forum is all about, showing charts and discussing them. You or I may turn out right, you and I may both turn out wrong. You have to agree this has happened before to both of us.

No problems john, im still learning and will be the one most likely (by a mile lol) to be wrong on this.

Ps... Show me someone who claims never to be wrong and ill show you a liar!

Consigned straight to the swear filter any statement that starts, "due to the well known........................"

..... And 'the building blocks are in place' lol Edited by mushymanrob
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chubbyfan Enthusiast

chubbyfan

Posted
  • Location: cheltenham.
  • Weather Preferences: if its warm i want sun..if its cold i want snow.
  • Location: cheltenham.
Posted

don't spoil the fun lol..folk are dreaming of a whi i i i i ite Christmas. :cold: just like the ones they hardly ever knew.

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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted

Posts day 16 charts from the GFS, but ECM 9-10 charts are useless.

 

Absolutely baffling..

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

Posts day 16 charts from the GFS, but ECM 9-10 charts are useless.

 

Absolutely baffling..

Only because they dont show what you want.

Weather watchers are a fickle bunch, picking and chosing which data supply they chose to believe dependant on what they suggest. Of course theres nowt wrong with wanting your fav weather, but the weather will do whatever regardless.

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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted

"The reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated"

 

-Atlantic

Is that not a T384 surface chart from a soon to be replaced model with a terrible reputation for being overly progressive?

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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted

Only because they dont show what you want.

Weather watchers are a fickle bunch, picking and chosing which data supply they chose to believe dependant on what they suggest. Of course theres nowt wrong with wanting your fav weather, but the weather will do whatever regardless.

 

Not really.

 

The GFS last night at day 16 had a very cold Easterly, but I knew it would have completely changed on the next run.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

Not really.

 

The GFS last night at day 16 had a very cold Easterly, but I knew it would have completely changed on the next run.

Fair play. Many do and are guilty of believing charts that suit, and many years ago i was as bad.

It would be nice to have another warmish weekend like current models suggest is possible. Ill believe it if its still on the cards on thursday.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

Ian Pennell's forecast, likely to be very accurate (to be fair to him it deserves to be) another  virtual snowless winter for the South

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conor123 Community Regular

conor123

Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
Posted

Lord almighty this has been a tedious Autumn, from 17c slate grey skies all September, mid teens slate grey October and now a whole November of 9-11c slate grey grot!!!!

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted (edited)

Ian Pennell's forecast, likely to be very accurate (to be fair to him it deserves to be) another  virtual snowless winter for the South

Completely understand the accuracy thing, remember last year reading Ian Pennell's forecast and he was spot on, but why the "(to be fair to him it deserves to be)" ???

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Iceaxecrampon Veteran

Iceaxecrampon

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Posted (edited)

ANTICYCLONIC Gloom.

 

...this at 13% probable at T+Whatever.

 

 

post-6879-0-94215900-1416174721_thumb.pn

 

 

 

ZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 

 

Ian

Edited by Iceaxecrampon
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

Completely understand the accuracy thing, remember last year reading Ian Pennell's forecast and he was spot on, but why the "(to be fair to him it deserves to be)" ???

 

because it looks like he has put massive effort into it

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

Too late for heat fans, end of week charts 30C plus if it was 4 months earlier, even 28C if 2 months earlier

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

because it looks like he has put massive effort into it

Got it :hi: , any chance of a link so we can all have a massive look into it.... Cheers!

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Evening thunder Experienced

Evening thunder

Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
Posted

I'm glad I don't live around Telford. Oh and also Aberdeen.

 

Unfortunately this blocking of the Atlantic/Sceuro high many have been chasing may just bring a spell of grey grot to us, with less sunshine and variability/interest than a mixed Atlantic spell with intervals of PM air would likely provide (at least to my meteorological interests).

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

Got it :hi: , any chance of a link so we can all have a massive look into it.... Cheers!

 

its on forum, recent topic updates, above status updates

 

I'm glad I don't live around Telford. Oh and also Aberdeen.

 

Unfortunately this blocking of the Atlantic/Sceuro high many have been chasing may just bring a spell of grey grot to us, with less sunshine and variability/interest than a mixed Atlantic spell with intervals of PM air would likely provide (at least to my meteorological interests).

 

I would rather grey nothingness than our usual default win and rain

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festivalking Experienced

festivalking

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
Posted

So the models are trending and the other over worn phrase is the models show potential. Fascinating as it might be (well it is) for coldies until the met office mentions at the very least, temperatures below average I'm not being sucked in.

Professional highly educated staff backed by super computers vs well meaning amateur weather chart interpreters with a whiff of cold bias based in weather forums. I know which horse I'm backing.

but

But

but

The forums offer hope misplaced but hope all the same.

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terrier Seasoned

terrier

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted

Much better run from gfs pub run. But been reading Ian pennells forecast tonight. And it's sounding all too familiar. Great analysis from him though. And he called last year spot on.

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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted

This Ian Pennell fellow has obviously not been following the strat thread LOL

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draztik Rising Star

draztik

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

Much better run from gfs pub run. But been reading Ian pennells forecast tonight. And it's sounding all too familiar. Great analysis from him though. And he called last year spot on.

 

Any chance you could link me to his suggestions? 

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Mark Neal. Seasoned

Mark Neal.

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Posted

Any chance you could link me to his suggestions?

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81848-seasonal-prediction-for-winter-2014-15-for-northern-britain-based-on-large-scale-sst-sea-ice-anomalies-in-autumn-2014/#entry3071112

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