Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Hocus Pocus]

The model thread is getting a bit silly with the "oh yes it is" and "oh no it isn't"  comments, if some people don't like  what either models show then just use scientific reasoning  as to why you think either model is right or wrong. Some do , but this constant nit picking between posters is tiresome and detracts from the excellent analysis in the MOD thread. 

Edited November 9, 2014 by Hocus Pocus

[h2005__uk__]

The petty bickering is tiresome in the forecasting model discussion , I'm trying to learn and I can't accompany this post with a chart or analysis because I don't have one. I try to read them but on a basic level I rely on the discussions to understand them. I follow this forum throughout the year and really cannot comprehend the childishness that happens.

 

Agree with you there. There seems to be little objectivity at times. Take the summer for example - if someone posted a chart that showed hot weather on the way, numerous others would say "it's only one model, it can't be counted". Yet now there's one model showing cold weather on the way, people who say "it's only one model" are being shouted down.

[EML Network]

So it's the time of year when the Model Output discussion thread becomes the thread where everyone ends up discussing the ''If's'', ''But's'' and ''Maybe's''.

 

And as happens each winter the almost compulsory squabbling and differing of views of what the charts are showing, or are not showing,  where things look to be headed or not and no doubt at some point we'll all be lead up the garden path and toys will be thrown out of the pram. 

 

What I find very encouraging about the various outputs at present is that a lot of the runs seem to want to eventually cut off the generic Westerly feed and break it up, with various options being presented, that's not to say that we are going to hit the jackpot at the first time of asking, but the general theme is for options that allow the possibility of us tapping into some cold air and getting lucky. 

 

Last winter I recall us having only a few occasions ALL WINTER, where we had options on the table, but the door was slammed shut time and time again. 

 

Were in a far better position this time around already and it's only November, there's plenty to be cautiously optimistic about IMO.  

 

 

 

[Mair Snaw]

So just as the models start to look a little more interesting the good old Express go against previous record 100 year cold with this          http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/533106/Storms-Britain-temperatures-10c-Met-Office   when will somebody please stop them from printing such utter tripe.....

 

Will be watching the models closely over the next few weeks to see how things develop...it would just be the law of the sod would it not that they get it right this time...

Edited November 9, 2014 by bigsnow

[Frosty_wsm]

The petty bickering is tiresome in the forecasting model discussion , I'm trying to learn and I can't accompany this post with a chart or analysis because I don't have one. I try to read them but on a basic level I rely on the discussions to understand them. I follow this forum throughout the year and really cannot comprehend the childishness that happens.

The bickering is caused by a select few, use the forum ignore function for those lot, that's what I'm doing. As for trying to learn, the detailed analysis that posters like snowking, Steve m and a few others go into is well worth reading, some posts really do go into great detail as to what's being shown by the models.

[alexisj9]

Well I guess The GFS has caught the ECM and over taken it today, great synoptics showing for a cold spell at just 144, our low getting cut off from the canadian low and an easterly setting up. Lets see if the ECM also starts cutting the low off. I would be happier with these charts in december, hopefully it is not to early.

 

The new GFS tries to agree but sends a short wave up towards Greenland reconnecting the lows. Caution is still required before to much optimism. 

Edited November 9, 2014 by alexisj9

[Mapantz]

Meanwhile, in the land of reality, the outputs scream flooding.

No. My comment above is off-topic in here, it isn't a moan or a ramp, it is what the models are showing.

Edited November 9, 2014 by Polar Maritime
It's banter.

[Ali1977]

Tonight's ECM is going to be interesting , hopefully some eye candy towards day 8

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS looks bad in a way, from 16th, drizzle most places, temps around 6C, too early yet for cold air from the east

[festivalking]

So I get the first cold of the season to coincide with an array of toys being thrown from the lap tap to which also coincides with Sunday night. (Bit of a bugger)

Hope the nose stops running and the toys are put back before work tomorrow. Yeah....can't see that happening. Remember it's only one run and more importantly it's only the weather.

Still love chasing wintery weather something about thrill of the chase.

[easton888]

still amazing for early November though. Better than anything last winter, with winter still to come!

[Mark Neal.]

still amazing for early November though. Better than anything last winter, with winter still to come!

That's the optimism we want, !

[mushymanrob]

still amazing for early November though. Better than anything last winter, with winter still to come!

 

but in the realiable timeframe its wet and mild... whilst there is potential for something unseasonably cold to evolve, its just that atm, a distant possibility. of course its also possible that it might just fizzle out, but thats not a possible solution most want to accept, and i suppose thats fair enough.

[snow freak]

well the weather at the moment is looking decidely like a repetition of last winters.  God i really hope we don't have a winter like last years again.  I don't think i could take another mild wet and windy one. 

[legritter]

Attention all Rampers moaners ,Winter still to come ,13 weeks of possibilities 182 ish runs of ECM  364 of GFS and others ,sit back crack open a Stella    Mother nature is a cooking up in our upper atmosphere ,im pretty sure thats where it all counts ,Dont worry if you start throwing your toys out of the pram ,mummy will tidy them up and look after you .Go carefull when pulling the curtains back to have a look at the street lamp ,My mum used to shout out GET back in bed ,and with 3 brothers all tugging at the curtains it was a full time job .lets hope we all get what we want but remain in controll and be patient ,       SNOWWWW .

[MPG]

 

but in the realiable timeframe its wet and mild... whilst there is potential for something unseasonably cold to evolve, its just that atm, a distant possibility. of course its also possible that it might just fizzle out, but thats not a possible solution most want to accept, and i suppose thats fair enough.

Surely you have some understanding for the people in the UK who suffered so much due to the rain last winter. Going by you location you have no idea. A winter with below average rainfall, dominant HP giving colder than average temperatures and hard frosts is very much wanted here. Atlantic domination is a big no no..give us a chance to dry out mushy......some of us are still wet from last winter.

Edited November 10, 2014 by MPG

[sundog]

well the weather at the moment is looking decidely like a repetition of last winters. 

Think the weather we are getting is farly normal November weather really overall ,granted there could be some high rain totals over the next week or so . If we get a winter as dire as last yr i would be surprised. In Nov 2009  during that very wet month there was not much sign of the wintery weather that was to follow.

Edited November 10, 2014 by sundog

[Paul]

We could go round in circles about which weather is 'best' for people until the end of time, so maybe it's time for everyone to accept that people will always have different preferences and needs when it comes to weather.

 

Severe and unusual weather of all types can and do cause problems for people, communities, work and so on - too much wet, too much dry, too hot, too cold, they all have an impact. But if someone likes cold weather, likes hot weather or whatever then it's not them wishing for people to have problems with it, it's just their preference - which by the way has no effect on what the weather may actually do!

 

Plus of course, none of it has anything to do with the model output, so can we please just move on.

[snow freak]

Attention all Rampers moaners ,Winter still to come ,13 weeks of possibilities 182 ish runs of ECM  364 of GFS and others ,sit back crack open a Stella    Mother nature is a cooking up in our upper atmosphere ,im pretty sure thats where it all counts ,Dont worry if you start throwing your toys out of the pram ,mummy will tidy them up and look after you .Go carefull when pulling the curtains back to have a look at the street lamp ,My mum used to shout out GET back in bed ,and with 3 brothers all tugging at the curtains it was a full time job .lets hope we all get what we want but remain in controll and be patient ,       SNOWWWW .

liking your optimism i have to admit

[Frosty_wsm]

liking your optimism i have to admit

Well with posts like the recent one from Tamara over in the mod thread, anyone hoping for more seasonal weather this winter has lots to be optimistic about.

Edited November 10, 2014 by Smartie

[throwoff]

The beast is waking folks, she is an old beast though and takes a long time to wake up, give her time!

[summer blizzard]

 

but in the realiable timeframe its wet and mild... whilst there is potential for something unseasonably cold to evolve, its just that atm, a distant possibility. of course its also possible that it might just fizzle out, but thats not a possible solution most want to accept, and i suppose thats fair enough.

 

I do agree with you that models consistently now say that we won't tap the cold pool and as a result i expect that we'll have to wait for a second build of Arctic Heights in a few weeks before we get a chance. 

 

But i don't think a wet and mild outcome in the traditional sense (i.e. the Atlantic winning) is a done deal. 

 

The 12z outputs in FI i think give a fairly real possibility whereby we end up with high pressure very near the UK. Now ignoring the angle from todays's outputs it's entirely possible that we end up with a high producing surface cold via an inversion. 

 

[mushymanrob]

Surely you have some understanding for the people in the UK who suffered so much due to the rain last winter. Going by you location you have no idea. A winter with below average rainfall, dominant HP giving colder than average temperatures and hard frosts is very much wanted here. Atlantic domination is a big no no..give us a chance to dry out mushy......some of us are still wet from last winter.

Lol.. Seriously, the post of mine you are moaning about isnt of my making. Im not god, i do not control the weather. What i posted referes quite clearly to the reliable timeframe which is for a pretty wet spell. I didnt say i want it, i didnt say i like it, i said that thats the outlook and not mentioning it wont make it not happen.

[mushymanrob]

Summer blizzard

On tablet that wont quote long posts.

Im not saying we wont tap into that cold, we might do, but the immediate outlook for the next week or so is mild and wet at times. Now i posted that this morning and have only just got in. It might not be a done deal but going on current modeling it is pretty likely.

The difference between me and most of you isnt so much that im not a cold fan, but that im dealing with the reliable timeframe and what i believe we are likely to get, and are not playing the spot the cold evolution game. Thats fair enough for those of you that want to do that, but please understand that i and a few others arent the enemy because we arent

[Milhouse]

The real cold air is still over 1000 miles away to the north throughout on the ECM and GFS. Theres nothing to say it has our name on it. Its like people getting their hopes up for a heatwave in Summer because 20c hpa temps have moved into Gibraltar.

Summer blizzard

On tablet that wont quote long posts.

Im not saying we wont tap into that cold, we might do, but the immediate outlook for the next week or so is mild and wet at times. Now i posted that this morning and have only just got in. It might not be a done deal but going on current modeling it is pretty likely.

The difference between me and most of you isnt so much that im not a cold fan, but that im dealing with the reliable timeframe and what i believe we are likely to get, and are not playing the spot the cold evolution game. Thats fair enough for those of you that want to do that, but please understand that i and a few others arent the enemy because we arent

 

The forecast on the beeb last night highlighted it would be a fairly mild week, hence i see no problem in agreeing with them.