Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Yarmy]

Been out all day. What's that blue stuff over the British Isles on the models?

[Captain Shortwave]

Summer will have one last hurrah over the coming 2/3 days. I mean at 20/21C that is insane for the time of year.

Then time to get onto snow business

[SLEETY]

Summer will have one last hurrah over the coming 2/3 days. I mean at 20/21C that is insane for the time of year.

Then time to get onto snow business

yes its strange.Ive seen that before,very warm then a sudden change to colder weather in Autumn.

[knocker]

Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-014-2378-z?utm_content=buffer2fc1f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[Polar Maritime]

Back to model related discussions please.

Many Thanks, PM.

[knocker]

And the search continues apace for the elusive cold crunch. Where will it all end I ask myself.

[snow freak]

I really hope this is the end of the very warm and mild spells now as nice as they are, they belong in spring and summer not autumn going into winter.  Let's hope the charts start picking out some decent winter weather scenarios that actually come to fruition and leave the current mundane warmth until next spring.

[Eugene]

850's nothing to write home about next week and ECM 12Z not as good as some say with strengthening mild SW'ly winds at T+240 hrs, we look a million miles away from anything properly cold, the British Isles seems to attract mild 850's like there is no tomorrow.

[stevofunnelcl]

Having to wear t-shirt n shorts on 31st October.. absolutely friggin ridicoulous

 

We shall all be eating christmas dinner on the beach at this rate, like they do in Australia, but at least they have an excuse, it'll be high summer for them

[snowtimenow]

I'm fed up with folk saying.. oh isn't it lovely weather for the time of year I hope it stays like this. I hope it doesn't. I don't get it. its very annoying. 

[Captain Shortwave]

I'm fed up with folk saying.. oh isn't it lovely weather for the time of year I hope it stays like this. I hope it doesn't. I don't get it. its very annoying. 

I would take this over chilly cloudy and wet weather. This isn't the usual mild southerwesterlies we usually get. A full blooded southerly is welcome at any time of year in my opinion given the clear skies they often bring. The warmth yesterday was exceptional.

That said today isn't bad either, 18C and plenty of sunshine down in the south east.

[knocker]

I'm fed up with folk saying.. oh isn't it lovely weather for the time of year I hope it stays like this. I hope it doesn't. I don't get it. its very annoying. 

 

Isn't it lovely weather. Better than the snow and ice and large heating bills and the elderly struggling to stay warm. And that includes me.

Edited November 1, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Temperatures in Europe at record highs. http://coolwx.com/record/  In warm sector of sprawling Icelandic low (GFS 2.0) pic.twitter.com/FiENhbaEel

[Yarmy]

The theme continues for a disrupted vortex in the various outputs, but unanimity on pretty average fare for the UK. The pensioners are safe for the time being. 

[mushymanrob]

I'm fed up with folk saying.. oh isn't it lovely weather for the time of year I hope it stays like this. I hope it doesn't. I don't get it. its very annoying. 

 

because it is (was) lovely weather for the time of the year.... and most people in real life dont like cold weather, thats why we wear clothes and heat our houses, lol.

well those of you seeking cold (and i must admitt that despite my preferance for warmth, winter needs a cold spell) theres small consolation this morning, at least the outlook isnt as warm as recent days have been! mild/average looks set for the first half of november.

i for one dont think the warmth will last all winter, i expect a marked pattern change with an anticyclonic dominated pattern. that would most likely (but not certainly) herald a much colder period.

[IanR]

because it is (was) lovely weather for the time of the year.... and most people in real life dont like cold weather, thats why we wear clothes and heat our houses, lol.

 

exactly , I sing from the same sheet as you, a mild winter would suit me fine, but we do need a little bit of well below sub zero now and again to keep pests and insects at bay etc,  even though its a bit of an inconvenience scraping and di icing the car in the dark before setting off for work,    last winter was a dream,  it was just jump in and drive off without all that faff of  de icing

 

I suspect even the staunch coldies warm up their house and wear clothes to ward off the nasty cold, 

 

then again I love torrential rain and thunderstorms, but would not want it raining in the house ! 

Edited November 2, 2014 by IanR

[snowblizzard]

Last winter was certainly not 'a dream' for those with flooded or damaged properties!

Surely, we won't see anything like that this winter?

[Weather-history]

I'm fed up with folk saying.. oh isn't it lovely weather for the time of year I hope it stays like this. I hope it doesn't. I don't get it. its very annoying.

In terms of convenience it has been nice but meteorologically speaking, IMO this year has been a yawn fest.

Little of interest locally, so on those grounds I hope to see a change to something more variable.

[MP-R]

Hardly much effort to de-ice the car for 5 minutes in the morning. I'd take that over leaving the house and nearly taking flight in a gale and driving rain. Personally, I'm liking the look of the models at the moment, some charts are quite November 2009-esque.

[JoeShmoe]

Blizzards in New England today!

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000421025/article/blizzardlike-conditions-in-foxborough

[Eugene]

I'm fed up with folk saying.. oh isn't it lovely weather for the time of year I hope it stays like this. I hope it doesn't. I don't get it. its very annoying. 

 

 

Completely agree, i was delivering yellow pages thursday evening in a t shirt and was sweating buckets, cold weather is much better when you're active.

[Sidsnake]

Last winter was certainly not 'a dream' for those with flooded or damaged properties!

Surely, we won't see anything like that this winter?

I couldn't agree more with the above statement. I am sure that there are very many worried people who are hoping to not see a repeat of last winter.

[mushymanrob]

Completely agree, i was delivering yellow pages thursday evening in a t shirt and was sweating buckets, cold weather is much better when you're active.

 

couldnt disagree more..... ive worked outdoors for 41 years and theres nothing better then stripping off and feeling the air around my body instead of being hindered by clothes worn to keep you warm.

but all that warmth has gone now, you have got what you were moaning about, its down to average for at least the next 3 days.

I couldn't agree more with the above statement. I am sure that there are very many worried people who are hoping to not see a repeat of last winter.

 

.... i bet theres even more who dont want a big freeze

[knocker]

Time for many to emigrate.

 

GFS upgrade at 06Z has bad intentions Days 6-9 ... brutal Midwest pic.twitter.com/qADjVj0Ivn

[MP-R]

I would have thought temperature is less relevant for working outdoors, surely dryness is more so. If it's hot, strip off (not literally!), if it's cold pile on the layers. I love walking out the door and feeling the hit of warmth/heat as much as feeling the fresh chill of a frosty morning. Last Friday it was brilliant not least because of how unusual it was to feel just how warm it was in the sun outside. Today it feels lovely and fresh and actually autumnal. Midweek may even bring the first air frost to many.