Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Eugene]

Yes 18C+ daily CET's in the second half of October are very normal Scott

 

The weather is far from normal with horrid tropical airmasses staying over us week in week out with only the odd fresher day.

[cyclonic happiness]

Yes 18C+ daily CET's in the second half of October are very normal Scott

 

The weather is far from normal with horrid tropical airmasses staying over us week in week out with only the odd fresher day.

I think the trend over the past 6-7 years has been for weather to hang on for much longer in periods, than it used to. So, hopefully WHEN it turns cold, it'll hang around for weeks and weeks and weeks too. :-)

[Polar Maritime]

Or as Fred likes to call it "A rut"

[knocker]

My thought for the day is that 'blocking' is probably a suitable candidate for the swear filter.

[Eugene]

Very unsettled next week, improvement from yesterday as if its going to be mild it might as well be wet and make it look at least autumnal.

[Tony27]

just looks like yet more bland, tedious high pressure to me with either average or above average temps, can't we at least have 9c 10c by day and slight frosts by night, probably have to wait till late november for that

Edited October 21, 2014 by Tony27

[Tony27]

yes today was a proper autumnal day although it was 13c here it felt much colder due to the wind and rain, i hope the GFS is correct as it shows a brief northerly next week at least it will feel seasonal

[Eugene]

Wow what a change from warm southerlies yesterday morning to cool northerlies on ECM.  

[mushymanrob]

i dont understand some recent comments, we are in the grip of what id thought is a proper autumn... a mixed bag of very varied weather. autumns are changeable, there are milder spells and cooler spells, some wet, some dry, windy and calmer and as we are only mid way through autumn the inevitable cooling off will occur and we will get colder days and frosty nights. the models are imho showing a fairly average autumn outlook and thus far we have enjoyed a fairly average autumn (since october started) ..... maybe it has been on the milder side of average especially september, but this month has been bang on and looks like continuing that way.

Edited October 22, 2014 by mushymanrob

[mushymanrob]

Wow what a change from warm southerlies yesterday morning to cool northerlies on ECM.  

 

... and back to the mild...

 

 

total confusion and uncertainty ahead, pinning hopes on any one run is a mugs game at the moment.

[Paul]

i dont understand some recent comments, we are in the grip of what id thought is a proper autumn... a mixed bag of very varied weather. autumns are changeable, there are milder spells and cooler spells, some wet, some dry, windy and calmer and as we are only mid way through autumn the inevitable cooling off will occur and we will get colder days and frosty nights. the models are imho showing a fairly average autumn outlook and thus far we have enjoyed a fairly average autumn (since october started) ..... maybe it has been on the milder side of average especially september, but this month has been bang on and looks like continuing that way.

 

The temperature stats disagree a little - October is running over 2c above average currently. 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=cet;sess=

[Tony27]

i love stats they soon end any argument, it seems like the models have downgraded that brief northerly, so its another case of "here we go again" already

Edited October 22, 2014 by Tony27

[johnholmes]

stats can be made to show whatever you want to be fair. The figure Paul shows are the Net Wx version of the CET. That is fine but some parts may well diverge from that. For instance, here, not that far outside the area, and my figure, to the 20th stands at + 1.4C

[mushymanrob]

theres no argument. i said quite clearly "maybe it has been on the milder side of average , and 2c above the average isnt that unusual , id call it pretty normal as i would 2c below....  and its not the disaster some are suggesting. october has been thus far and would appear to be, as we head towards the months end, a pretty normal, typical, autumnal month.

[DAVID SNOW]

Down here in the south east its been a VERY mild autumn thus far. I am still picking strawberries from my garden,and with lots more still to ripen.

[Cloud 10]

Down here in the south east its been a VERY mild autumn thus far. I am still picking strawberries from my garden,and with lots more still to ripen.

 

Are they bigger than this beauty i got in a punnet from tesco's?

 

[DAVID SNOW]

Are they bigger than this beauty i got in a punnet from tesco's?

 

20130325_151527.jpg

  A little smaller C10,  were they from Spain perhaps?

[mushymanrob]

is it mild?.... carole kirkwood just said the temps are 'bang on where they should be for this time of year' with max's in the far north of 11c, to 16c in london.

[Nick L]

is it mild?.... carole kirkwood just said the temps are 'bang on where they should be for this time of year' with max's in the far north of 11c, to 16c in london.

 

16c is definitely on the mild side for London for the back end of October.

[mushymanrob]

16c is definitely on the mild side for London for the back end of October.

 

argue that with ms kirkwood then!

 

in fairness it was the only place she had a 16c. most of the country was bathed in temps 12c-15c to which she made her 'bang on' referrance.

[MPG]

argue that with ms kirkwood then!

 

in fairness it was the only place she had a 16c. most of the country was bathed in temps 12c-15c to which she made her 'bang on' referrance.

17 in north wales

[Eugene]

Horrific charts for next week, 20C looking likely in a very warm southwesterly flow, I can't be the only one thing absolutely sick to death of this and it is far from normal on such a persistant basis, you may get the odd very mild day in second half of October but not most days for weeks on end, seriously very concerning and people expect a cold winter, yeah right, more chance of Man Utd suddenly becoming world beaters.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Holbeach observation station showing 115c 

[Captain Shortwave]

Horrific charts for next week, 20C looking likely in a very warm southwesterly flow, I can't be the only one thing absolutely sick to death of this and it is far from normal on such a persistant basis, you may get the odd very mild day in second half of October but not most days for weeks on end, seriously very concerning and people expect a cold winter, yeah right, more chance of Man Utd suddenly becoming world beaters.

Ah that old chestnut

The October anomaly charts which preceded the 10 most -AO winters. Drier and warmer than normal for the UK with heights from our locale stretching up to the Arctic.

Also you really think the a wet and stormy October heralds a cold winter? How did last year go? 

[Cloud 10]

  A little smaller C10,  were they from Spain perhaps?

 

I've no idea where they were from but it would keep a family of borrowers going for a while!