Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[hec1]

interesting weather in fi, beats this boring weather we've had for weeks

[Snowmad79]

Well I'm not sure what the crack is in the model thread and some posts here about this big change in weather and getting something different because here in the Oldham / Manchester area it has been very wet, cool and often windy at times over the past week or so! and I wouldn't exactly call my area "the far north west".

 

Last Tuesday for example, we had 7 hours of none-stop rain, heavy at times and plenty of rain on and off since. So no, for a lot of people there is no big change other than temps might drop off a little more and a bit more wind. Thus, reading the model thread over the last week as been some what misleading.

[Mokidugway]

Autumn coming at the end of the week ,cold drizzle and wind ,sounds awful ,time to book a holiday !!!!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Some heavy rain around Fri night into Sat especially in the North and West.

The next lot arrives Sunday Evening

Autumn is a coming :-)

[Mapantz]

It really doesn't look that bad in the short term. The north and west is likely to see the worst of any rainfall, the further south and east you are, rainfall is sparse.

 

While a change is on the way, looking past 144hrs is still like peeing in the wind- hence the amount of scatter on the GFS 850hpa ensemble, Oct 6th >

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

A few places could see more rain in 24 hours at the end of this week than the UK as a whole saw in the whole month of September.

It does look like though currently that the Southern half of the UK won't see that much rain at all.

[Mokidugway]

Saturday looking abysmal ,30mm of rain proged for my location ,better get the grass cut !!!....

[knocker]

A friend of mine started a five day Glens holiday on Monday staying just outside Inverness. They were going for a trip on the loch on Friday. I'm afraid very unfortunate timing.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Indications this morning that the unsettled spell could be quite short in the South of the UK. Possibly 5 days only. The NOAA 500MB charts are having none of "the more settled come end of next week" at the moment though.

I will enjoy this up and coming unsettled spell in case it is short lived :-)

[Yarmy]

Taking my lad to the football on Saturday...

 

 

Character-building, I suppose.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Some uncertainty to what happens with the weather late next week (particularly in the S/SE).

It looks like it could settle down for a bit, but it is kind of looking likely that any drier / brighter spell will be very short lived before the next LP comes in. The latest 500mb mean charts for 7-10 days ahead don't really point to a sustained drier spell coming up again anytime soon.

To add to the above the latest METO update doesn't mention any prolonged dry and settled spells until after at least mid month.

Edited October 3, 2014 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[knocker]

Let's hope they are right.

 

METO

 

Our latest three-month outlook suggests an increased risk of milder and wetter than average conditions for the period Oct-Nov-Dec based on our seasonal forecasts and those from other leading centres around the world.

[Yarmy]

Let's hope they are right.

 

METO

 

Our latest three-month outlook suggests an increased risk of milder and wetter than average conditions for the period Oct-Nov-Dec based on our seasonal forecasts and those from other leading centres around the world.

 

After last year, I can't believe anybody would want it wetter than average? 

[knocker]

After last year, I can't believe anybody would want it wetter than average? 

 

Well perhaps tamper that down a bit and keep the milder.

[AWD]

I know it's not meteorologically correct, but I consider winter to be more Jan - March, especially for the south of the UK.

Only on a few occasions can I remember any snowfall before Christmas IMBY.

[Bristawl Si]

I know it's not meteorologically correct, but I consider winter to be more Jan - March, especially for the south of the UK.

Only on a few occasions can I remember any snowfall before Christmas IMBY.

Yes AWD, before 2009 and 2010 the only severe wintry/snowy December i can remember was Dec 1981 in Bristol.

There have been other times with snow before Xmas but didnt tend to last longer than a day or two.

[Polar Maritime]

I know it's not meteorologically correct, but I consider winter to be more Jan - March, especially for the south of the UK.

Only on a few occasions can I remember any snowfall before Christmas IMBY.

Jan/Feb are historically the the coldest/snowiest Winter Months for the UK. And March always seems to be colder than December here to, With recent one's being considerably colder. Anywho best get back to Model banter/moans. Edited October 5, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[stevofunnelcl]

Frankly i think it's delusional for people to be looking for 'warmth' when talking about the end of October / early November

 

We'd need a feed of air straight from Africa, what i'm hearing is a westerly wind flow, with the sun losing pretty much all of it's strength soon

 

It'll also soon be getting dark by late afternoon / early evening.

 

The talk should be about increasingly chilly lengthy nights. It's not summer anymore, i don't understand why people are looking for 'sunbathing' weather

[johnholmes]

Frankly i think it's delusional for people to be looking for 'warmth' when talking about the end of October / early November

 

We'd need a feed of air straight from Africa, what i'm hearing is a westerly wind flow, with the sun losing pretty much all of it's strength soon

 

It'll also soon be getting dark by late afternoon / early evening.

 

The talk should be about increasingly chilly lengthy nights. It's not summer anymore, i don't understand why people are looking for 'sunbathing' weather

 

perhaps for a similar reason that winter preference folk still look for snow in late May or even early June.

Neither, heat in mid to late October or snowfall of any consequence from mid May onwards are probable to any relevant degree. Yes both have occurred, I have seen snow in June and heat in October in my lifetime, but I certainly would not need more than 2 or 3 fingers to count both together!

[Milhouse]

Ive given up on warmth. But a return to mild temperatures wouldn't go amiss and it looks reasonably mild from around day 7 onwards. The 10c isotherm hanging on just across the channel at day 10 on the ECM mean.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

And they're off...

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/520672/Winter-weather-2014-UK-forecast-cold-snow-November

Again!

[Bobby]

The cold ramping and hunting has started in the MOD thread. And so it begins...

[Seasonal Trim]

The cold ramping and hunting has started in the MOD thread. And so it begins...

Yeah, thank god. It was becoming rather boring in the MOD thread. About time things got exciting.

[William of Walworth]

I'm about to enter hibernation (from here at least -- wish it could happen in real life!!) for the non-summer.

 

Between round about early October and round about late April, my sheer indifference as to which discussion wins or not on here between cold-ramping or wet-mild-and-stormy-ramping,or even extreme-frosty-and-dry-ramping, is massive.

 

In fact my 'whatevs!' about anything weather/synoptic-wise beyond about late September is  probably more extreme than almost anyone else's on Netweather (?).

 

So enjoy your autumn, winter and early spring chats, folks. I'm just going to enjoy the fact that I don't work on Fridays -- poorer is worth it for three day weekends!

 

See you round about Easter 2015 -- there may be a bit of chat about summer then ....

 

<huddles under duvet for several months! Except for campervan buying duties in November for Festival Season 2015!!! >

The cold ramping and hunting has started in the MOD thread. And so it begins...

 

 

And that's partly the reason for my post above .... see ya!

Edited October 9, 2014 by William of Walworth

[William of Walworth]

As for the UK's very rationed and limited 'High Pressure Quota' -- it was overused to lovely effect in September, so don't overuse it before next May please! 

 

(Then give us PLENTY! Right through to the end of September again .... )

 

Right. Hibernation, then ....

 

Enjoy yourselves ....

Edited October 9, 2014 by William of Walworth