Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/09/14 onwards

[Mokidugway]

What! :O I can't see any! The 76th storm I've missed this year...!

very distant 2 flashes earlier have you not taken of your sunglasses yet .....

[Costa Del Fal]

Flickers of lightning here in Falmouth tonight. 

[William Grimsley]

Flickers of lightning here in Falmouth tonight. 

How close?

[Chris.R]

Didn't see/hear anything here either. Hoping for something interesting tomorrow morning though perhaps.

Edited October 6, 2014 by Chris R

[Costa Del Fal]

How close?

Couple of flashes seemed to be just out to sea. Quite visible so cant be too far away.

[andy989]

A very close strike here about 40 mins ago. Bright flash with instant clap of thunder. But then nothing

[dragon falls]

Those showers are heading this way gone chilly 7.4 wind has picked up a bit

[Marcus_surfer]

One or two flashes to the southwest this evening here

[William Grimsley]

Couple of flashes seemed to be just out to sea. Quite visible so cant be too far away.

Nice, haven't seen anything recently but SW may turn interesting.

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

 

 

Issued 2014-10-06 21:36:03

Valid: 07/10/2014 0000z to 08/10/2014

 

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

 

Synopsis

A large upper low/cold pool to the west of Ireland dominates the weather over the British Isles over the next few days, a shortwave upper trough moves east across Ireland/Wales/England Monday night/Tuesday morning increasing lapse rates and forced ascent, which will bring a risk of thundestorms spreading from the west.

 

... IRELAND, WALES AND ENGLAND ...

 

Increasingly cold mid/upper troughing spreads east across Ireland and central/southern Britain Monday night into Tuesday, steepening lapse rates and increasing forced ascent. Instability is already evident with sferics across Ireland and SW UK Monday evening as cold pool/shortwave trough pushes east, with clusters of thunderstorms across coastal areas. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to push east overnight as large scale ascent and steepening lapse rates spread from the west. Further heavy showers and scattered storms are likely to move NE across Ireland/N Ireland, Wales and much of England during Tuesday, though storms most likely towards southern and western coasts. Any storms will be capable of producing torrential rainfall leading to localised flooding, hail and gusty winds.

 

0-6km (vertical) shear will be fairly weak across central and northern parts of the regions highlighted, so severe weather seems unlikely here. However, both 0-6km and 0-1km are indicated to increase across southern areas by afternoon, as strong jet shifts north out of France and low-level winds veer too ... so enhancing the potential for storms to organise towards southern coastal counties - with an isolated risk of strong wind gusts, large hail and perhaps a tornado with stronger storms that benefit from bouyant updrafts. Though risk looks too isolated to warrant a SLIGHT risk area for severe weather for now.

 

Issued by: Nick Finnis

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Edited October 6, 2014 by Nick F

[Costa Del Fal]

Couple of rather bright flashes again here. Seems to be within a couple of miles.

[Adam Parker]

Just starting to get a bit Thunder and Lightning here in Honiton/Devon.

[Stormyking]

Wow cracking downpour here, winds unbelievable too!

 

Edit! Big flash and massive crack of thunder just went off! yesss

[William Grimsley]

Just had a nice little brief thunderstorm then!

[lassie23]

Wow cracking downpour here, winds unbelievable too!

 

Edit! Big flash and massive crack of thunder just went off! yesss

Are they moving north towards London by any chance?

[Stormyking]

This storm has literally developed directly over Guernsey, had 5/6 strikes and rumbles all of a sudden, awsome stuff!

 

They maybe Lassie, depends it it will survive away from coastal areas, they are moving NE though which is your direction!

Edited October 6, 2014 by Stormyking

[lassie23]

This storm has literally developed directly over Guernsey, had 5/6 strikes and rumbles all of a sudden, awsome stuff!

 

They maybe Lassie, depends it it will survive away from coastal areas, they are moving NE though which is your direction!

Thanks stormy king, hope they don't crumble over the channel and end up as drizzle showers over London !

[Stormyking]

Thanks stormy king, hope they don't crumble over the channel and end up as drizzle showers over London !

You never know mate, keep your fingers crossed!

Dont worry too much as there another risk wednesday which looks decent for your area too

[lassie23]

You never know mate, keep your fingers crossed!

Dont worry too much as there another risk wednesday which looks decent for your area too

Just seen the forecast, Wednesday is looking thundery here, like you said!

[Hirudine]

I'm trying to decide if it's worth staying awake for a little longer incase anything reaches London, but I've got to get up at a decent time to do a photoshoot tomorrow.

The IOW seems to be getting all the fun right now

[lassie23]

I'm trying to decide if it's worth staying awake for a little longer incase anything reaches London, but I've got to get up at a decent time to do a photoshoot tomorrow.

The IOW seems to be getting all the fun right now

I was thinking the same, but looking at the radar there isn't much going on in London! By 2.00am there are heavy showers approaching way out to our west and southwest! How long do they take to reach us? If you have to be up at 6am you may be travelling during one of those showers! Will they be thundery?

Edited October 7, 2014 by lassie23

[TropicThunder]

Wow, haven't really been keeping up with this thread for a few days, so what a surprise to be woken up by deep booming thunder and bright flashes of lightning! Quite frequent too. Lovely stuff!

[lassie23]

Wow, haven't really been keeping up with this thread for a few days, so what a surprise to be woken up by deep booming thunder and bright flashes of lightning! Quite frequent too. Lovely stuff!

I see the thunder has already reached Southampton Is That moving NE towards London?

[Sno' problem]

The ppn is certainly building nicely and, as Hirudine said, the IOW is getting a fair few strikes and they are just beginning to make it to the mainland!

 

It looks like it would take a couple of hours to get to London at the current rate, but the next couple of radar runs should indicate whether it's building or not.

 

Fingers, toes and eyes crossed eh?

 

It has gone a bit quiet on the sferics in the past couple of minutes though...

 

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

Edited October 7, 2014 by Sno' problem

[TropicThunder]

I see the thunder has already reached Southampton Is That moving NE towards London?

Looking at Blitzortung the action does seem to be roughly moving in a NE direction. It's dying down here now an the lightning seems more off towards the east, but we had some cracking fork lightning lighting up the sky, followed almost instantly by loud cracks of thunder. I'm wide awake for work now.