Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/09/14 onwards

[lassie23]

Looking at Blitzortung the action does seem to be roughly moving in a NE direction. It's dying down here now an the lightning seems more off towards the east, but we had some cracking fork lightning lighting up the sky, followed almost instantly by loud cracks of thunder. I'm wide awake for work now.   

It looked pretty decent on the radar!

[TropicThunder]

It wasn't bad at all! Sadly seems to have completely stopped now, but maybe there will be more later.

[Sno' problem]

Beginning to pick up again just south of Hastings, not too good for those of us in London right now, Hampshire seems to be sucking the life out of it! 

[slb97]

It wasn't bad at all! Sadly seems to have completely stopped now, but maybe there will be more later.

Same here except there's just been another flash but appears to be isolated

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Ooh just woke up to a low rumble - might go look outside... :-)

[lassie23]

Showers have arrived in London!

[Weather-history]

Caught lightning just before dawn from cells to the SE of the Isle of Man! Miles away! You can see some flashes close to the horizon about 2.55s above the 10 on the timer.

[Stormyking]

Going to the IOW today, noticed they got hit nicely last night, im liking the potential again tonight and tomorrow morning over there!

Cant wait to move back there in the next month or 2!

Missed a storm here at 3am last night i was out of it!

[Mapantz]

Nothing thrilling but I did get a couple of rumbles last night, another 5.3mm of rain from sharp showers.

[Dami]

Having been up all night with stomach cramps, I can safely say the only thunder to be heard was indoors. Rained outside around 4am.

[William Grimsley]

To add to the thunderstorm last night there were a few more rumbles of thunder.

Edited October 7, 2014 by William Grimsley

[Weather-history]

A very poor day, torrential rain mid afternoon. Much brighter now.

[Spikecollie]

We had a couple of flashes here in Dijon this morning. Dark walking to work at 0730 in the torrents.

[IanR]

I can see some convection over the Irish sea coast against the dusk sky, wonder  if it will give the odd flash.

 

southern england has done well for storms this year,  we have a slight chance of something thundery over the next couple of days, although today was forcast for a chance of thunder, nothing happened,  so not expecting anything for the next few days apart from periods of heavy rain at times  , the thunder drought continues,  

[poseidon]

Estofex have a Level 1 for much of England and Wales tomorrow - mainly for severe wind gusts/tornadoes.

 

http://www.estofex.org/

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Tomorrow lookin good for our area - ukweatherworld forecaster Tony Gilbert has put a tornado box right over where I'll be commuting to (Brockley SE London)

I'm satisfied with that :-)

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

 

 

Issued 2014-10-07 22:17:32

Valid: 08/10/2014 0000z to 09/10/2014 0000z

 

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST

 

Synopsis

Deep upper low and collocated surface low will move slowly NE from the Atlantic across SW Ireland on Wednesday. Ahead of the low will be a deeply cyclonic and unstable S to SWly flow across the UK, with troughs embedded in the flow.

 

... EIRE/N IRELAND, ENGLAND AND WALES ...

 

Low pressure arriving across Ireland will pull in relatively warmer and moister air from the south across Ireland, England and Wales during Wednesday, A shortwave trough looks to arrive across S England by 0600z, moving NE across England and Wales during the morning. This trough will create forced ascent of the increasingly moist airmass supporting clusters/bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms to move N and NE. Further bands of showers storms are likely to follow across southern and western areas, as occluded front wrapping around low arriving over Ireland moves in and minor troughs move NE further east.

 

 Strong SWly jet streak lifts north across Sern England on Wednesday, which, combined with winds backing S or SEly towards the surface, will create strong vertical wind shear. GFS indicates 50-60knts 0-6km shear and 25-30knts 0-1km shear, which will support organised storms, possibly with mesocyclones capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts and even a tornado or two - especially given low LCLs (Lifted Condensation Level). The tornado risk enhanced across SE England and E Anglia in the afternoon, as very dry air descends into the mid-levels (500mb) which will increase potential instability - though a tornado can't be ruled out anywhere across southern England and Wales.

 

Besides the slight severe risk, any storms will be capable of producing torrential rain leading to localised flooding and deep surface water on roads, hail and gusty winds.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Edited October 7, 2014 by Nick F

[Mapantz]

Estofex have a level 1 warning out too.

[lassie23]

Estofex have a level 1 warning out too.

wp_ss_20141008_0001.png

Showers due tomorrow morning! No thunder over London yesterday, this looks better!

Edited October 8, 2014 by lassie23

[William Grimsley]

We had some rain last night with part of it being torrential rain. Today High Rainfall Rate: 50.6 mm/hr 04:36.

Edited October 8, 2014 by William Grimsley

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Looking exciting in the skies over south easy london right now :-D

[Supacell]

A severe thunderstorm watch just released from Skywarn

 

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #029
ISSUED: 0900BST WEDNESDAY 8TH OCTOBER 2014

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A WATCH FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS FOLLOWS:
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 60MPH WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE HAIL UP TO 20MM IN ANY STORMS: CENTRAL, SOUTHERN,SOUTH WESTERN,SOUTH EASTERN AND EASTERN ENGLAND,WALES & EIRE. 
 

IN EFFECT UNTIL 1700BST WEDNESDAY 8TH OCTOBER 2014

 

DISCUSSION:
The shortwave trough currently moving NE across Southern England is bringing with it a large area of heavy rain with thunderstorms embedded within it. The airmass will become increasingly moist as it moves North East and this together with high vertical shear and very low lifted condensation levels will promote increasing instability over the watch areas. There is the possibility of organised line convection later this morning and early afternoon and under these conditions severe wind gusts together with large hail will occur in any thunderstorms, particularly over South East England, East Anglia, Humberside and Lincolnshire.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA

 

www.skywarn.org

Edited October 8, 2014 by Supacell

[Supacell]

Currently storm activity restricted to the Irish Sea and parts of SW Wales but I would expect it to become more widespread as we head towards the middle of the day. Dewpoints are rising rapidly to the south of the showery rain band which has just cleared Derby, they were in low single figures at 8am but are now approaching double figures. In this moister, warmer air further showers will develop, and are already developed, this in an environment supportive to allow storm organisation and rotation. As mentioned above storms that do form today are likely to be accompanied by torrential rain, hail up to 2cm, gusty winds and a possible tornado or two. An interesting day to get out with the camera.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Why does everything in London have to arrive late?

[Mokidugway]

Not much happening here ,best potential late afternoon I think ....