Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/09/14 onwards

[alexisj9]

Looking at my vid, I took a quick screenshot. There is a better frame but I cannot manage to get it again on my phone...

I don't know what to think, but do you see what I see?

wp_ss_20141104_0001.png

I slowed your vid down and there does seem to be something funnel like, might be a trick of the light though. Really hard to tell.

[Mapantz]

I slowed your vid down and there does seem to be something funnel like, might be a trick of the light though. Really hard to tell.

Yup. I'm a sceptical guy but this has caught my eye!

I messec around with the picture on Adobe on my phone, this is the best I could muster up I'm afraid..

http://1drv.ms/1wsPZwf

[Stormyking]

Just got in from a very eventful night of lightning watching! Left the house around 10pmish and headed down to ventnor, however the road to ventnor was shut so we had to back track to go to Shankling sea front instead! We got hit by a very potent cell, with 2 extremely close positive CG'S and explosive thunder, one of them pretty much hit directly about us! It produced some torrential hail, and the roads went white from the hail!

Anyway that was it for then, but we decided to go to the downs and keep an eye out to sea, as we always can see whats happening for miles! Anyway it was a slow start, there was the odd flash here and there. Then got to about midnight and we almost gave up and came home, but as we was about too, this storm to our South and South east decided toe xplode into life, with lightning every 20 seconds. There was loads and loads of Double CG'S multi flashes and the odd anvil crawler!

We decided to change location because there was yet more cells coming to life, and int he end we was looking at about 2/3 different cells which was all producing, with 2 of them close enough to here some decent thunder!

Great night yet again for storms this year!

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

 

Issued 2014-11-04 09:26:56

Valid: 04/11/2014 0600z to 05/11/2014 0600z

 

 

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

 

Synopsis

A deeply amplified long-wave upper trough lies N-S across western Europe today, with a ridge upstream over the N Atlantic and a ridge downstream across Ern Europe/Wern Russia. A cold pool/vortex embedded in the upper trough will move SE across western areas today. At the surface, low pressure will be centred over the North Sea, with a northerly flow developing across the UK.

 

... EIRE, N IRELAND, WALES and SW ENGLAND ...

 

Mid-level cold pool/vortex will drift SE across western Britain today, steepening lapse rates and creating ascent to support the development of scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms across the above areas. Convection is likely to be strongest and thus thunderstorms most likely towards coastal areas due to the steeper lapse rates between cold mid-levels and still relatively warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Storms will be slow-moving and near coastal areas with extra warmth/moisture supplied from the SSTs may produce excessive rainfall leading to flash-flooding over steep/hilly terrain. Also storms maybe accompanied hail and gusty winds. Waterspouts can't be ruled out with coastal convection where we see more buoyant updrafts and local breeze convergence along coasts.

 

... E SCOTLAND and NE ENGLAND ...

 

Scattered showers near along frontal zones drifting south may produce isolated lightning strikes, accompanied by small hail and gusty winds.

Edited November 4, 2014 by Nick F

[Stormyking]

Just found out that ventnor Co-Op was struck by lightning last night and it was from the first storm that passed through and gave 2 positive CG'S, which i had seen!

[the storm fisherman]

Just had a pea sized hail shower and a handful of lighting bolts for good measure here in a now sunny chandlers ford

Edited November 4, 2014 by the storm fisherman

[Neilsouth]

Thunderstorm to my south, probably coastal

[Bluebreezer54]

A few sferics showing up in the English Channel, just off the coast of Dungeness and Folkestone

[alexisj9]

Thunder and lightning in Dover, very long rumbles.

[Convective]

That ain't bad going for November!

 

[Nick F]

 Behind the cold front sweeping east tonight/Friday morning, bringing a band of heavy rain and strong southerly winds, an increasingly unstable airmass follows from the west with a risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms across England and Wales in particular:

 

Storm & Convective Forecast

 

Issued 2014-11-06 22:40:14

Valid: 07/11/2014 000z to 08/11/2014 0600z

 

 

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECASTS

 

Synopsis

 

Long-wave upper trough moves in from the west overnight and through Friday while digging SE into western mainland Europe too. Just ahead of the trough, a strong southerly flow veering SWly behind cold front clearing east Thursday night / Friday morning. Behind cold front, an increasingly unstable flow follows from the west across the UK and Ireland.

 

.... EIRE, N IRELAND, ENGLAND, WALES, W COAST of SCOTLAND ...

 

Cold front moving through from west overnight and Friday morning may support some embedded convection that may produce isolated lightning and/or isolated strong wind gusts. Otherwise, post cold front airmass will be characterised by rapidly cooling mid-level temperatures which will steepen lapse rates and support development of heavy showers and thunderstorms, storms most numerous across marine areas given supply of warmth/moisture, but some storms spreading inland too with trough activity. Showers/storms will focus near a number shortwave troughs moving east as progressively colder air spreads in aloft from the west with long-wave trough. This, combined with fairly strong Wly flow aloft (particularly towards S England) will see some organisation of storms into line segments or multicells capable of producing hail, torrential rain leading to flash flooding and isolated strong wind gusts - more particularly towards S and SW coasts. Funnels or even brief weak tornadoes/waterspouts can't be ruled out over coastal areas where relatively warm SSTs, low LCLs and low level convergence along coasts create favourable conditions.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Nick F

[timeless]

been looking at the GFS over the past few and l dunno whether its coming or going, one day its clear the next we have the above

 

just wish the weather would settle, we have had enough thunder this year, l want snow.

[Greeny]

I never seem to work out where to find your storm forecast page Nick to post on my fb group. That would make it easier if I could find it.

In regards to snow I prefer this. I don't like cold but if it is cold then without snow. Thats more to do with how disruptive it is whilst doing my job and that people just don't know how to drive in snow and panic. It becomes mayhem. Otherwise it wouldn't be so bad if my job didn't mean driving many miles and I can actually enjoy it.

[Mapantz]

I never seem to work out where to find your storm forecast page Nick to post on my fb group. That would make it easier if I could find it.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[Greeny]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Thanks Mapantz how do I get to it from the homepage?

[Mapantz]

Thanks Mapantz how do I get to it from the homepage?

I cannot see a link from the homepage. I just get to it via the forum: "Weather Forecasts, Alerts and News from Netweather"

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81762-uk-storm-and-severe-convective-forecast/

[Stormyking]

Waheyyy we are at it again, cell passed through to just to my South about 20 minutes ago, let out 2 cracks of thunder!

[Greeny]

I cannot see a link from the homepage. I just get to it via the forum: "Weather Forecasts, Alerts and News from Netweather"https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81762-uk-storm-and-severe-convective-forecast/

Perhaps also if I bookmark it I can go back to if it updates?

[Mapantz]

Perhaps also if I bookmark it I can go back to if it updates?

Yeah, the actual convective page is the main one, so that will be the same link name all the time.

[Azores Hi]

Looks very unstable out there looking towards the south coast. Anvils moving one way, showers moving at right angles to the anvil so some good vorticity to tap into I would guess. As nick said in his forecast, be on high alert for funnels if you are east of IOW on the south coast, going out there myself for a look see!

[Greeny]

Yeah, the actual convective page is the main one, so that will be the same link name all the time.

It took me all this time to work that one out lol! Thanks again!

[Mokidugway]

Some fine anvil structures over Irish sea,IOM way ......

[Convective]

Some fine anvil structures over Irish sea,IOM way ......

 

Some whopping downpours today. None stop all day with bits of hail at times

[Mokidugway]

Endless train of showers with odd rumbles of thunder ,thanks to flabby low and a warm Irish sea !!!!!.

[Cyclonic]

MY god

incredible thunder bolt, huge flash of lightning with instant thunder...it was that loud to be honest i thought a bomb had just gone off.....it shook the house, and now people are saying sandown that it was an incredible thunder bolt that was so loud car alarms are going off...

 

WOW....i nearly pooped my knickers lol

 

 

Yes, not been on in a while..been very very very poorly (thats un understatement) 

 

Hope all is well and ok, miss you all loads... 

 

Edited

Was heard all over the island, people messaging me asking if i heard it, i said heard it...i thought my house was going to crumble with the intensitiy of it.....

Edited November 9, 2014 by Cyclonic