Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 30/09/14

[Gibby]

Some chinks of hope for 'coldies' this morning but a long way out currently. Nevertheless all cold spells have to start somewhere. Here's today's report.

 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 22ND 2014.

 

NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY OCTOBER 23RD 08:00

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A Westerly flow is developing across the UK between Low pressure to the NW and High pressure to the South of the British Isles. Fronts will edge across the UK through the next 24-48hrs.

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Changeable weather with rain at times but some drier and brighter periods across the South. Near or slightly above average temperatures. Rather windy at times in the North

.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet flow is developing in a West to East flow across the Atlantic from the Southern tip of Greenland to Northern Scotland over the next week before it slips further South over the Western side of the Atlantic and moves in a more NE direction over the UK later in the period.

 

GFS The GFS operational today shows a continuation of the Westerly theme of weather around Low pressure to the North and High to the South of the UK. For much of this time a moist and mild SW flow will deliver bands of rain at times but short polar maritime incursions of air will interrupt this theme with colder and brighter conditions for a day or two before milder air returns. Rainfall amounts in the South should be small.. Late in the run a change in the pattern occurs as pressure builds quickly from the South across the UK before retrogressing to the NW of the UK feeding cold winds down from the North and NE. This would mean widespread fogs and then frosts with cold crisp days to end the run

.

THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The main part of this run is similar to the operational though the cold intervention of air at the end is not supported with the UK staying on the warm side of any rise in pressure from the South in continuing mild and damp Westerly winds through to the end of the run.

 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows the UK yet again bathed in very mild and moderate SW winds early next week with High pressure close to the SE with cloud and some rain in the North and West while the South and East becomes largely dry and very mild in any brightness towards the SE

.

THE FAX CHARTS  Warm sector conditions with cloudy and drizzly conditions will develop over the South in the coming days with less wind than of late. Cold fronts cross SE across Britain at the start to the weekend with some rain followed by a return to warm sector conditions again by the end of the period at 120hrs.

 

GEM The GEM operational this morning keeps High pressure further at bay to the South and SE with deeper incursions of low pressure across Britain from the North from the weekend with rain and showers developing for all in strong winds at times especially in the North. With time too colder polar air becomes entrained in the airflows around the Low pressure over the North of the UK bringing colder conditions here gradually moving towards the South at the end of the run.

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a broad Westerly flow across the UK through the period with Low pressure crossing East to the North while pressure stays High to the South of the UK. Some rain and showers in a typical North/South split of weather is shown with temperatures largely on the mild side of average especially in the South. 

 

ECM The ECM operational today keeps the UK locked in largely mild SW winds with rain at times especially in the North and West at first and perhaps more towards the West later as Low pressure edges in closer to the UK from the West then rather than the NW. A brief colder snap is shown early next week from the NW behind a cold front with frost a possibility briefly before the milder air edges back North later.

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains little shift of emphasis from the models to show any major pattern change over the upcoming 10-14 days with largely Westerly winds remaining dominant for the time being.

 

MY THOUGHTS  All models reflect a similar pattern over the coming two weeks with the emphasis dominated by a pressure pattern of Low pressure to the North and a belt of High pressure from the Azores to Europe. The resultant Westerly or SW flow delivers plenty more mild air wafting up across the UK for a large percentage of the time with not a terrific amount of rain in the South either where conditions remain largely benign. Further North the Westerly flow shown is stronger and brings some heavy bouts of rain and strong winds and as cold fronts depart SE some brief interventions of colder polar air is apparent with short colder spells as a result. Looking longer term there is a few notable changes in the pattern with the GFS operational showing a complete pattern change at the end of it's run which would deliver cold and frosty and possibly foggy conditions late on in the run should it evolve. However, this is not supported well within it's ensembles so needs to be treated speculatively at the moment. The only other chink in the armour is from ECM who which does appear to be raising pressure towards Greenland by Day 10 and this could mean that once the depression shown edging into the UK from the West at that time moves through or fills it could spell colder weather down the line. However, having said all that there is a lot of mild and rather benign conditions to come with just the standard Autumn pattern of occasional rain and wind at times with some brief colder and more showery interludes across the North.

Edited October 22, 2014 by Gibby

[Summer Sun]

This morning's ECM ens keeps us in a westerly / southwesterly flow next week so temperatures should be around average for most maybe slightly above average at times and especially in the south. All parts are likely to see some rain at times but the south could see some lengthier drier spells with a risk of fog overnight with the further north you go the more prone you are to some rain and stronger winds

 

Edited October 22, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Barry12]

The ECM 00z is an interesting run, especially day 10.

 

 

GFS 6z has a big cool down this time next week, with a cold N/NW flow.

 

Edited October 22, 2014 by Barry95

[knocker]

The ECM Artcic anomaly D10 and down the road. No great evolution vortex wise.

Edited October 22, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Russian Arctic high pressure blasts south w/cold conditions to end October over E. Europe.

 

[Barry12]

Nice run from GFS 12z

 

Edited October 22, 2014 by Barry95

[Barry12]

The ECM 12z is in agreement with the GFS, that there will be a big cool down this time next week as we pick up a N/NW flow

 

Edited October 22, 2014 by Barry95

[knocker]

Well the GEFs doesn't think so. I was just going to say a good example of the boundary between warm and cold air.

Edited October 22, 2014 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

The ECM 12z is in agreement with the GFS, that there will be a big cool down this time next week as we pick up a N/NW flow

 

 

Milder air moves back in from day 9 so maybe a couple of cooler days followed by something milder from the west

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Looks like a tradtional westerly pattern for the rest of the month. Some milder weather interspersed with cooler and showery weather. Not really much to talk about as it is pretty standard fare for this point in the year. It looks like the polar vortex will move towards Siberia and Alaska in week 2. The pattern looks pretty flat downstream so probably a continuation of the weather we are seeing at the moment. A mix of dry and wet, cool and mild.

[phil nw.]

Noticeable how the Atlantic pattern is becoming entrenched as we go into the weekend and on in to week 2.

Ens means showing a long draw south westerly flow well into much of Europe with a solid Euro block and lows to our north.Low pressure being modelled along the Greenland,Iceland/Norway corridor. 

T144hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m6.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rt850m6.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1442.gif

 

carrying mild air across the UK and much of the continent through to day 10 and beyond.

The jet just flirting with the far north of the UK on occasion  but the general picture continues to keep any cold air away for now.

 

[Vorticity0123]

With the first potent autumn storm now behind us, it is time to look at what next weeks may bring. Initially, a brief analysis of the storm will be given. Thereafter, a more extensive look in the weather for the next several days is presented. 

 

Storm of 20-21 October

 

The precursor to the storm system on Monday and Tuesday was hurricane Gonzalo, which developed in the mid-Atlantic, strengthened into a strong category 4 hurricane, and then recurved out toward Newfoundland and later toward Europe. 

 

On the 20th of october, the system was located due east of Newfoundland, which can be seen in the pressure analysis from the GFS of 20 October below:

 

 

GFS surface level pressure and 500 hPa heights analysis (20 October 2014, 00Z).

 

In this image, Gonzalo was moving swiftly eastward, but also weakening quickly, as it was steered by the low pressure area near Iceland. 

 

One day later, the system lost its separate identity, but it was still clearly identifiable as a surface trough aligned to the low pressure area near Iceland:

 

GFS surface level pressure and 500 hPa heights analysis (21 October 2014, 00Z).

 

The remnants of Gonzalo are visible as the extension of the low pressure area over Scotland. Note that there is a potent gradient in pressure near Scotland (caused by the isobars being closely aligned). This was the main cause of the storm that struck Scotland on 20/21 October.

 

On the night of 21-22 October, storm-force (>35 kt) winds were also experienced in Holland, but these winds had a more complex origin. This can be seen in the GFS analysis of 22 October, 00Z:

 

GFS surface level pressure and 500 hPa heights analysis (22 October 2014, 00Z).

 

The remnants of Gonzalo have moved northeastward, just to the west of mid-Norway. But, more importantly, a separate low pressure area has become visible over Denmark. This system developed very quickly over the North Sea, and caused a lot of headaches for the Dutch meteorological organization. This was due to the fact that a track only 50 km more to the south would yield a very different wind pattern for Holland. This would also have influenced the chances on high tide and storm surge. 

 

In the end, the low took a more northerly course than expected, resulting in slightly less strong winds and high tide level than expected. Still, as can be seen from the chart above, the isobars were still pretty close to each other near Holland, creating storm conditions as a result, with wind gusts peaking at just over 100 km/h from the northwest.

 

Analysis + Short-term forecast

 

To start with, below is the analysis from the GFS as of 12Z:

 

GFS surface level pressure and 500 hPa heights analysis (22 October 2014, 12Z).

 

The first thing that shows up is that a significant 500 hPa trough (indicated by blue colours) exists over Iceland. This results in potent low pressure activity in that area, which is not uncommon for October.

 

Furthermore, a weak low pressure area exists to the south of the Azores, which has some possibility to develop into a subtropical cyclone in the next few days. 

 

The UK mainly remains under the influence of the trough over Iceland, yielding mostly unsettled and mild weather (and a fairly zonal pattern).

 

Of more importance is that some high pressure activity can be seen over Scandinavia. This seems to be associated with weak WAA (warm air advection, indicated by red to green colours nosing northward from Spain all the way to the northern tip of Scandinavia). Possibly, this is caused by the trough near Iceland. This results in significant high pressure development near the Baltic States two days later, as can be seen below:

 

 

GFS surface level pressure and 500 hPa heights forecast (22 October 2014, 18Z run, T+48).

 

Not that the warm air advection (now much better defined by the yellow/orange colours nosing northeastward and northward toward the Baltic States and northern Scandinavia) has become more southwest-northeast oriented.

 

Due to this WAA, high pressure has also extended slightly further northward, which might settle the weather somewhat more over the south of the UK. The north seems to remain unsettled, though.

 

Inter-model comparison for 5 days out

 

For the 5 day forecast, a comparison between the ECMWF and the GFS will be made.

 

GFS:

GFS surface level pressure and 500 hPa heights forecast (22 October 2014, 18Z run, T+114).

 

ECMWF:

ECMWF surface level pressure and 500 hPa heights forecast (22 October 2014, 12Z run, T+120).

 

The comparison shows only some minor differences, with both showing a significant trough (indicated by blue colours) between Scandinavia and Iceland (with associated low pressure activity). Furthermore, a southwest-northeast oriented ridge (indicated by orange colours) exists over central Europe, yielding a high pressure area extending from France to far into Russia.

 

 

A minor difference can be seen with a surface trough existing west of Ireland. The GFS has the low further to the east, and also somewhat weaker. But this kind of difference is pretty common for a forecast for 5 days out.

​

In the UK, this kind of setup usually results in more settled weather the more south one goes. Furthermore, the southwesterly flow will likely yield possibly rather high temperatures, as 850 hPa temperatures of more than 10*C may well be reaching the southern portions of England again, as can be seen below:

 

 

ECMWF 850 hPa temperatures forecast(22 October 2014, 12Z run, T+120).

 

Also note that the WAA (warm air advection) is clearly visible here, as high 850 hPa temperatures are advected northeastward all the way toward Russia, analogous with the WAA as shown in the pressure charts.

 

One can also say that uncertainty at the first 5 days can be considered generally low.

 

Long-range forecast

 

The final part consists of a look at what the long-range could yield for the UK.

 

For this period, ensemble forecasts from the GFS, as well as anomaly charts form NOAA, will be used.

 

In about 8 days, the GFS ensembles show a potent trough still positioned near Iceland, which is also extending quite far southward. As a result, a mild, unsettled type of weather with winds from the southwest seems to be most likely.

 

GFS ensemble surface level pressure and 500 hPa heights forecast (22 October 2014, 12Z run, T+196).

 

 

Once again, it seems that the south will be experiencing the most settled weather, with high pressure being positioned most close by (associated by a weak 500 hPa ridge extending from Spain toward Russia).

 

The NOAA 6-10 day 500 hPa agrees with the analysis above:

 

NOAA 6-10 day 500 hPa forecast heights (green contours) and anomalies.

 

Note that the trough and ridge are both also visible on the 500 hPa forecast from NOAA. Also, the anomalies are fairly weak (i.e. the pattern deviates little from the average pattern usually experienced in October). This could be an indication of a standard pattern, but also high level of uncertainty. For this case, it appears to be a combination of both. From the NOAA discussion:

 

 

 

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IS EVIDENT IN THE MODEL FORECASTS OVER ALASKA AND THE
NORTH PACIFIC EVEN AT RELATIVELY EARLY LEAD TIMES. BY THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
THERE IS RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLES AND POOR RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY OVER MOST MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH AMERICA AND THE NORTH
PACIFIC. AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN
MODELS IS FAIR OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. DIFFERENCES IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER
ALASKA WERE SO GREAT THAT AN EVEN BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF MODEL ENSEMBLES WOULD
RESULT IN NEAR AVERAGE HEIGHTS, WHICH NEITHER MODEL PREDICTS. 

 

In summary, the uncertainty appears to be positioned especially over the Pacific. However, given that the weather experienced upstream also has a major influence on the weather here a few days later, uncertainty also increases dramatically in the extended timeframes (from 8 days out).

 

The NOAA 8-14 day forecast shows almost no anomalies for near Europe. However, given the low confidence level, this forecast should be used with caution.

 

To get a slight indication of the uncertainty, below is the temperature 'pluim' for De Bilt, Holland:

 

Temperature 'pluim' of De Bilt, Holland, showing 50 individual model runs from the ECMWF.

 

What can be seen is that after 7 days, uncertainty greatly increases in temperature, with a range of 10*C of maximum temperatures found in 7 days time. Therefore, confidence can be considered to be very low from 7 days on.

 

Conclusion

 

It looks like the weather will stay unsettled an mild over the northern parts over the UK, while the south may see a more settled period coming up due to high pressure activity from the south. However, it is important to note that confidence in about 7 days is very low, so little can be said about that yet.

 

Sorry for the somewhat extensive post! I hope this is not too much of a problem   .

 

Sources:

http://www.weerplaza.nl/actueel/

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

Edited October 22, 2014 by Vorticity0123

[Mucka]

18z GFS ensembles for Central England, it is like someone turns the mild off the moment October neds.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2014102218/graphe6_1000_257_94___.gif

Edited October 23, 2014 by Mucka

[knocker]

The midnight GFS anomalies for D10 and onwards.

 

Trough South of Greenland effecting most of the Atlantic with warmer air N. America and a swathe south of the trough into Europe. Very unsettled weather for the UK.

 

Down the road the cooler Atlantic air becomes more extensive bringing cooler (about average tho') to UK and remaining very unsettled. Lower heights in the Arctic.

 

In the interim some warm weather next week. Note very warm in the north eastern US.

Edited October 23, 2014 by knocker

[IDO]

The most significant trend from the GEFS of late is the PV beginning to get organised possibly heralding an extended period of zonality. The op at D16 pretty much sums up the GEFS:

 

 ECM PV at D10: 

 

So generally unsettled with bouts of rain as we head into late October/early November. Lots of uncertainty amongst the GEFS for that period as to where the jet falls and amongst some drier runs there are as many with significant rainfall totals. London pressure chart:

 

 

Though the further West & North the wetter in all probability. This ties in with the CFS for November: 

 

So relatively mundane weather upcoming, dry over the weekend for England as temps move to above average for the south next week, before returning to below average in early November (mean), though there are splits in the ensembles with a milder cluster. So we now need to see if this trend for the zonal train is maintained and hope it is not a long term pattern.

Edited October 23, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Summer Sun]

After showing some cooler day's for a time next week ECM has reverted back to a milder outlook away from Scotland

 

 

The south could see some decent weather next week with temperatures remaining on the mild side (high teens) and plenty of dry weather with high pressure never far away. Further north and especially across Scotland the weather looks more unsettled with some stronger winds at times

 

[bluearmy]

Not a very busy thread and perhaps a good time to caution te use of op charts post day 7 which have little ens support ???

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY OCTOBER 23RD 2014.

 

NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY OCTOBER 24TH 08:00

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A moist SW flow covers the British Isles with a cold front crossing SE over Scotland today and the rest of the UK tonight and tomorrow.

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Changeable weather with rain at times but some drier and brighter periods too more likely across the South. Near or slightly above average temperatures. Very windy at times especially in the North.

 

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet flow continues to be programmed to blow in a SW to NE direction across Scotland over the coming days before it moves more directly West to East across the Atlantic and the North thereafter slowly sinking South with time towards Southern Britain.

 

GFS The GFS operational today shows a continuing spell of Atlantic Westerly winds blowing across the UK throughout the coming two weeks between Low pressure to the North and High pressure to the South. In the flow there are plenty of troughs shown with spells of rain at times for many but heaviest across the North and with the longer drier spells in the South. Occasional bursts of cooler and more showery conditions could affect the North at times otherwise mild weather remains the theme for the next two weeks today.

 

THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The Ensembles today point to a similar theme through Week 1 as it's operational but in Week 2 ratchets up the power of the Atlantic and Jet flow. It brings the Jet flow South and strongly  too introducing some very potent storm systems across the UK with widespread gales and heavy rain with potential for damaging wind gusts at times.

 

UKMO UKMO this morning has the UK under slack winds in the middle of next week with a lot of dry and bright weather and somewhat cooler than currently. Low pressure lies to the West and Southerly winds and milder air looks like returning late in the week with occasional rain.

 

THE FAX CHARTS  The Fax Charts continue to show a moist SW flow over the UK getting increasingly complex as cold fronts move SE over the next 24-36 hours. The fresher air following is then shown to be replaced by further strong and mild SW winds over the North and troughs queuing up to the West by the middle of next week.

 

GEM The GEM operational this morning also maintains a long fetch SW feed across the Atlantic and the UK through it's run today with rain at times from rather active troughs affecting NW Britain at times. Some colder air is shown to filter into Northern Britain at times as exiting depressions clear East to the North and pressure builds across Southern Britain again later reducing the wind and rain amounts for all by then.

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows mild SW winds across the UK being interrupted by cooler air moving down from the NW by midweek. A couple of days of bright and dry weather with mist and fog at night looks feasible for a time before Low pressure in mid Atlantic late next week returns mild South winds and occasional rain moving slowly east into the UK by the end of the run. 

 

ECM The ECM operational also shows the mild SW winds with rain at times in the North and West in particular. This model also shows cooler air filtering down across the UK for a time next week with mist and fog by night under the light winds then. By the end of the run though the pressure pattern becomes slack and complex with a trough moving slowly East slowly displacing yet another feed of mild SW winds for a time late next week and weekend.

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is no definitive change in trend away from the mild outlook still shown by all models this morning.

 

MY THOUGHTS  Autumn 2014 continues in a generally quite mild theme with a lot of SW winds feeding NE across the UK from a long way South in the Atlantic. Low pressure is also in close attendance to Northern and Western Britain and it's here there could be some copious rain events at times while the South and East benefit from High pressure to the South often stretching in a belt from the Azores to Western Europe. The polar front will make some progress South at times to allow temporary cooler conditions down across the UK with this looking most likely towards the middle of next week before this is pulled away again by reinvigorated SW winds. Also in Week 2 the GFS Ensembles today show a major shift towards potentially very stormy conditions in Week 2 with severe or storm force winds a possibility if this model is to be believed. ECM on the other hand shows pressure trying to rise towards the NW at Day 10 and with a quieter Atlantic some cooler and more seasonal Autumn mists and fogs could give temperatures a boost down in the days that follow Day 10 but it is a long way off and is only one run. So in a nutshell there is little evidence of any shift towards anything particularly cold this morning with occasional ridges giving the chance of a day or two of cooler weather at times over the next few weeks. But for now the models overwhelmingly endorse that the weather remains quite locked in this mild and broad SW feed of winds stretching across the Atlantic and NW Europe between High pressure to the South and Low to the North and NW.

 

Edit 09:30 Not a very inspiring ECM 10 Day Mean Chart either if it's cold your looking for.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Edited October 23, 2014 by Gibby

[chionomaniac]

It's probably worth pointing out that the data receiving issues that are affecting the snow and ice measurement values and GFS are also affecting the ECM as can be seen in the hole of data recording over the Americas and East Pacific.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/coverage/dcover!AMVs-Infrared!00!pop!od!mixed!w_coverage!latest!/

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

It's probably worth pointing out that the data receiving issues that are affecting the snow and ice measurement values and GFS are also affecting the ECM as can be seen in the hole of data recording over the Americas and East Pacific.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/coverage/dcover!AMVs-Infrared!00!pop!od!mixed!w_coverage!latest!/

Right so in affect the outlook is not to be trusted by the models , because loss of dats in snow and ice values means they don't have a clue what impact sea ice and Siberian snow cover could have moving forward?

[shaky]

It's probably worth pointing out that the data receiving issues that are affecting the snow and ice measurement values and GFS are also affecting the ECM as can be seen in the hole of data recording over the Americas and East Pacific.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/coverage/dcover!AMVs-Infrared!00!pop!od!mixed!w_coverage!latest!/

so does that mean the fi outputs on the ecm and gfs could potentially be affected at the moment?

[Barry12]

The most significant trend from the GEFS of late is the PV beginning to get organised possibly heralding an extended period of zonality. The op at D16 pretty much sums up the GEFS:

 

The op at Day 16 'sums this up', come on, you've been on this forum long enough to know day 16 will have changed completely on the next run.

[IDO]

The op at Day 16 'sums this up', come on, you've been on this forum long enough to know day 16 will have changed completely on the next run.

 

 

I think we all know there is a spell of zonal weather coming and although never say never with weather this is the clearest signal this Autumn that a change in that direction is coming. I did add that we need to watch this trend. The 06z keeps the mean pressure for London on a downward direction with some very wild members bringing wet and windy weather on a mainly zonal flow:

 

 

The latest JMA update for week 2 and week 3 of November anomaly suggests the westerly flow will become established. That is a strong 2 week low pressure anomaly:

 

 

The CFS MJO is heading into Phase 2 early November and that translates to: 

 

 

 

Then phase 3 for nearly the rest of November: 

 

How long we get locked into this pattern is debatable and there is no clear signal this will be anything other than a few weeks assuming this remains the trend.

Edited October 23, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[The Eagle]

Agree the next 2 - 3 weeks are not teeing up great. Last thing we need is the PV taking up long term residency to the northwest. Hopefully only temporary.

[Nick L]

It's probably worth pointing out that the data receiving issues that are affecting the snow and ice measurement values and GFS are also affecting the ECM as can be seen in the hole of data recording over the Americas and East Pacific.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/coverage/dcover!AMVs-Infrared!00!pop!od!mixed!w_coverage!latest!/

 

I've had an email from ECMWF regarding the data outage, they insist that despite the significant data loss that the impact on the accuracy of their model should be minimal.

 

All NWP models are affected, and while some accuracy will be lost, they don't believe it is significant enough to disregard any runs.

 

As well as this, since yesterday some of the missing observations have been resumed.

Edited October 23, 2014 by Nick L