Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 30/09/14

[ITSY]

this from the control isn't a million miles away from something very decent.
Not bad for 26th October.

Certainly the first eye-brow raising batch in the last 24 hours or so



 

[Polar Maritime]

Yes the GFS continues to show much colder weather for the turn of the Month. With High Pressure pushing up into Greenland drawing a nice Northerly, And the colder theme continues through to the end of the run with the Jet much further South than of recent weeks. Makes for interesting Model watching over the coming days, With a more seasonal feel to things..   

 

Edited October 26, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[IDO]

The message from the Gfs 06z op run is..mild mush, you are the weakest link..  .goodbye

 

Throughout low res the 6z reloads a much colder pattern from the north with regular arctic incursions digging well south, really this run is looking fantastic as we head into early / mid nov potentially

 

 

Trying to not put a downer on it but the op and control have a little support amongst its members and to be honest the mean for the south re uppers is just below average:

 

 

 

The 2m temps suggests the op is an outlier, snow for London on the op (the only member!!!). The 06z is notorious for that; its lately challenging the 18z for the pub run monicker. Apart from that possible brief toppler, the rest of GFS FI mean is rather bland Autumnal output with temps moving closer to average. They look like they are cooling off but I think its more that we lose the milder temps of the last few weeks, so the feel will be cooler than of late.

 

As for the GFS handling of the Atlantic; its upgrade is due in November and we will see the parallel coming online in early December, so maybe it can compete with the ECM up to D7 and beat the ECM from D8?

Edited October 26, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Frosty.]

Trying to not put a downer on it but.....

 

We need more uppers and less downers, I have a feeling we are in for at least a few wintry spells during november based on the ecm and gfs this morning..  

[nick sussex]

I wonder if the unbelievable warmth over much of western and especially sw Europe will finally be coming to an end as we enter November.

 

Although the ensembles might look underwhelming its clear that the main models are starting to pick up on a change. We need to see a few more outputs before being sure but it will certainly come as a shock especially down here where the weather has been more like mid summer than late Autumn.

[Cloud 10]

 

 

 and we will see the parallel coming online in early December, 

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81409-gfs-upgrade-coming-november-2014/#entry3059202

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81409-gfs-upgrade-coming-november-2014/#entry3059210

[IDO]

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81409-gfs-upgrade-coming-november-2014/#entry3059202

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81409-gfs-upgrade-coming-november-2014/#entry3059210

 

Thanks. Coming in earlier than I thought

[Frosty.]

Thanks. Coming in earlier than I thought

The first wintry spell will be too if the ecm 00z and gfs 06z are anything close to reality

[BlueHedgehog074]

I mean it could be true, to be fair, that the GFS has overdone the cold signal and may have possibly over amplified the High Pressure to the West and the Low Pressure to our East/North-East. But I suppose it could still be worth getting the popcorn and hotdogs out ready for the 12Z runs and see whether some of the models continue with a possible cold Northerly toppler or something. 

 

 

 

 

 

[knocker]

Hi Knocker, its because you mainly follow the GFS & its ensembles- which are as ever Pony Tony.

 

 

Not quite true Steve as I equally follow the ECM.

[shaky]

At the end of the day if the greeland high and northerly is still there on the 12z then I think the gfs has picked up on something!!!!just another hour and 30 mins and then we have lift off!!

[knocker]

Well the 06z GEFs (again) anomaly I must say I can;t see any permanent shift to colder weather or cross Polar flow with the temps sticking above normal. Must be just me.

Edited October 26, 2014 by knocker

[Met4Cast]

Important to remember that the Ensembles run at a lower resolution compared to the operational & control runs.

We've seen time & time again the op picks up on a possible new pattern with zero support from it's ensembles only for them to pick up the signal a few runs later.

The op picked up the 2010 cold spell and I think the entire ensemblr suite flipped to cold about 3-4 runs later.

Not to say the op has it right, but something to keep on mind when it comes to the GFS

[Dancerwithwings]

At the end of the day if the greeland high and northerly is still there on the 12z then I think the gfs has picked up on something!!!!just another hour and 30 mins and then we have lift off!!

I thought the ECM was hinting on the first signs of a northerly, i maybe wrong, This was 0z from Friday between the two for the 3 November

 

ECM                                                             GFS

                                                                       

            

 

EDIT; Knocker...The ECM did change on the next run to a southerly as the GFS was suggesting, the ECM has been hinting at a Northerly for the last few days now,

as for the GFS it has only followed the ECM proper as from today.... But who really cares (flip flop flip flop) :cold: is on the way

Edited October 26, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[Barry12]

It takes time for the models to smell the coffee sometimes.

 

ECM 00z

 

 

 

GFS 06z

 

 

 

Both the ECM and GFS are toying with blocking over Greenland and a Northerly setting up for the UK. There is clearly support for this to happen between days 8-10.

Edited October 26, 2014 by Polar Maritime
To remove off topic remarks.

[knocker]

It takes time for the models to smell the coffee sometimes.

 

ECM 00z

 

 

 

GFS 06z

 

 

 

Both the ECM and GFS are toying with blocking over Greenland and a Northerly setting up for the UK. There is clearly support for this to happen between days 8-10.

 

There clearly isn't. If anything the GEFs downgraded the idea and the sequence of both models had the 500mb anomaly pattern quite fluid. Time for an espresso.

Edited October 26, 2014 by Polar Maritime
To remove deleted quote.

[Polar Maritime]

There is some strong signals Barry. But the question is whether this signals a change to a cooler pattern, Or just a fleeting visit from the North.. At the moment the latter seems more likely, And if so what will we return to.. Lot's to be resolved, And as i said this morning makes for interesting Model watching. 

[nick sussex]

NOAA do highlight some uncertainty upstream which does have a bearing on Europe, initially its to do with how progressive the pattern is and how much amplification occurs over the USA and Canada.

 

You can see the full discussion here:

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[Gael_Force]

There clearly isn't. If anything the GEFs downgraded the idea and the sequence of both models had the 500mb anomaly pattern quite fluid. Time for an espresso.

 

To be fair to Barry, there does indeed seem to be a signal in the GFS ensembles for some kind of change - temporary or signs of a longer term trend? Who knows, but it is valid for discussion at this time.

 

Panel GEFS at +192 - double click for enhanced view of screenshot of 06z or use link below.

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192

[shaky]

To be fair to Barry, there does indeed seem to be a signal in the GFS ensembles for some kind of change - temporary or signs of a longer term trend? Who knows, but it is valid for discussion at this time.

 

Panel GEFS at +192 - double click for enhanced view of screenshot of 06z or use link below.

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192

and.most if not all of them have a greenland high!!

[knocker]

and.most if not all of them have a greenland high!!

 

But not particularly evident at T240 & 312. We will have to await the next installment and in the meantime I'm off to sniff the coffee.

Edited October 26, 2014 by knocker

[Ali1977]

Things looking a bit different this run, not sure on a bonfire night northerly....

[bluearmy]

Peeps getting too hung up on the detail.

Just look at the lw pattern - if it doesn't look like delivering any colder air to the uk it doesn't matter at this stage of the year. Wrt repeating patterns, we just want to see it happen.

[knocker]

Peeps getting too hung up on the detail.

Just look at the lw pattern - if it doesn't look like delivering any colder air to the uk it doesn't matter at this stage of the year. Wrt repeating patterns, we just want to see it happen.

 

Wouldn't disagree with that blue.

[Barry12]

But not particularly evident at T240 & 312. We will have to await the next installment and in the meantime I'm off to sniff the coffee.

 

It doesn't matter if its not evident at 312.