Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 30/09/14

[phil nw.]

Just removed a post with no model discussion,only Winter hopes.

Only post about the model outputs in here please.

 

Thanks. 

[492]

Dewpoints over Russia this morning are more typical of mid winter than late October.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmetd.html

[Scorcher]

Dewpoints over Russia this morning are more typical of mid winter than late October.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmetd.html

 

Very interesting map showing how windward coasts facing the west/southwest have noticeably higher dew points, with the UK right up there in Europe at the moment. Looking at the main models this morning it seems that this theme of mild temperatures and high dew points could continue for some time in Western Europe.

[IDO]

No real change today for November, with a zonal pattern looking like entrenching for the early half of the month at least. 

 

The D10 ECM mean:   GEFS @ D10:  GEM mean: 

 

GEFS at D16:   Signs the jet may push further north and maybe benefit the south.

 

CFS for November: 

 

So its a matter of buckling down through this zonal phase and hope that background signals will fall into place for this to not last too long.

 

 

 

[Nouska]

Just noticed on wetterzentral a new model called Icon has appeared it only goes out to t78

 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsicoeur.html

 

That is the new, very high-res, icosahedral model that the DWD and Max Planck Institute are testing. Similar to the NOAA FIM in how it segments the Globe.

 

http://www.dwd.de/sid_FY01JKLF7LLH6N1txQJl7FbgXckQb7mFqZrzDBzpLlgz4xLgN4vL!-1888403501!535701719!1414154309203/bvbw/appmanager/bvbw/dwdwwwDesktop?_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=dwdwww_result_page&portletMasterPortlet_i1gsbDocumentPath=Navigation%2FForschung%2FAnalyse__Modellierung%2FFU__koop__proj__ICON__node.html%3F__nnn%3Dtrue

 

Really neat 700mb RH presentation on the Meteociel version.

 

Edited October 24, 2014 by Nouska

[Captain Shortwave]

I do wonder whether the calls of "zonal weather" are perhaps a little early. The pattern at least on our side of the pole seems to be lacking any real drive with the tropospheric vortex happily bombing away on the Siberian side of the pole. 

This chart is start to look like a developing ridge just to the east of the UK which could halt the progression of Atlantic fronts. 

The GFS does look more mobile. But either way a changeable end to October and most likely the start of November. Temperatures ranging from a little above average to well above.

 

One last thing, still no sign of an organised tropospheric vortex developing as we enter November.

Edited October 24, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

Yes nothing Zonal as far as the GFS is concerned, With the PV well away from Greenland Model'd for the turn of the Month.

 

[Milhouse]

As has been the case so many times this year - trending well above average in the reliable timeframe, returning to average as confidence drops.

 

[knocker]

Yes nothing Zonal as far as the GFS is concerned, With the PV well away from Greenland Model'd for the turn of the Month.

 

 

Perhaps settling for intermittently zonal PM.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Knock, Agree there, Nothing shouts full on Zonal.

[knocker]

Yes Knock, Agree there, Nothing shouts full on Zonal.

 

What i meant to say PM, I was in a rush to get my cottage pie, was that the circulation is zonal but interrupted by episodic incursions of troughs and ridges. Well that's enough of that, time to move on.

[knocker]

Looking at the D10 GEFS anomaly  it's continued pushing the warmer air further north leading to a quiet Atlantic and average temps. But continuing with the unsettled picture this gives way to a trough NW of the UK and a slightly different scenario. No PV to speak of.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Its the traditional mix for Late October , from then on it looks like turning colder at times from the start of November,,,

[knocker]

The progression of the GEFs last three runs is interesting. The anomaly pushes the colder air south until it ends up with a trough from the Pole south to Europe. Precisely as the 24/12 ECM did. Be interesting to see todays. Depending on the orientation of the surface low pressure it could herald some quite nasty and colder weather although to be fair the GEFs is plumping for average temps or slightly above.

 

The charts, as usual, are not in sequence.

Edited October 25, 2014 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS & ECMWF are showing bouts of cooler/showery N/Wrly's throughout the run, A real mixed bag, With the South holding on to slighty warmer temps. 

 

 

Edited October 25, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Newberryone]

A constant theme with recent output seems to be the huge swathe of high pressure firmly anchored in the south Atlantic. In fact the latest Ecm 00z charts in the latter frames continue to show it's strong and unrelenting influence.

[SteveB]

Well hopefully if the high pressure is still there mid November, and IF  the OPI is correct, then maybe the polar vortex doesn't form in it's favoured place & allows the high pressure too move up into the Artic.

 

In the meantime, plenty more of the same .

[Cloud 10]

A constant theme with recent output seems to be the huge swathe of high pressure firmly anchored in the south Atlantic. In fact the latest Ecm 00z charts in the latter frames continue to show it's strong and unrelenting influence.

 

The ECM ensemble mean really squashing that ridge as we enter November,and looks more unsettled than we have seen for a while.and no doubt cooler to go with it.

 

[knocker]

As noted above and further to my earlier post the ECM is even more bullish with the trough than the GFS.

Edited October 25, 2014 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Some pretty Stormy conditions to come for the far N/W over the weekend. With 100-150mm Rain falling in places.

 

Edited October 25, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[IDO]

With the block over the US holding firm for the medium term we have the zonal flow from late October sourced from the NW:

 

GEM & ECM agree with the long wave pattern: 

 

The GFS by D16 still trending towards a more organised PV as heights over the US are sent packing, and we get a more orthodox zonal flow:

 

OP:  Control: 

 

The AO index looking like confirming that trend: 

 

In the next 8 days looking drier the further SE you are. Total rainfall for those 8 days according to GFS: 

 

The NW getting potentially twice the October monthly average in those 8 days!

 

The South mild for most of week 1, Wed/Thu cooler: 

 

From week 2 it's the block over the US being shoved east and how the transient ridge/trough react as to where the jet passes through the UK. Then a flatter NH profile looks likely as the PV makes it's plans...

[phil nw.]

Inevitably as the cooling gathers apace over the polar regions modelling is showing the falling off height anomalies in the 500hPa charts as we go into November.

I guess this is no surprise to most of us -the polar height anomalies we have seen thus far have been observed in many previous Octobers. I should add though the fact that we are now reverting to normal service as we approach November  doesn't mean anything wrt Winter prospects one way or the other. 

 

Anyway we can see the expected developments from the 00z Naefs and ECM mean charts,comparing now and the T240hrs outlook.

 

 

 

add in last nights NOAA mean ht forecasts for days 8-14 based on yesterdays 12z run

 

and we can see the ongoing picture continues to be our typical Autumn pattern of  Atlantic westerlies with frontal systems and drier intervals in transient ridges.

 

It looks like we may lose the milder feel as we go into week 2 with signs of the jet coming south but overall just our normal pattern for the time of year.

[MR EXTREMES]

Well hopefully if the high pressure is still there mid November, and IF  the OPI is correct, then maybe the polar vortex doesn't form in it's favoured place & allows the high pressure too move up into the Artic.

 

In the meantime, plenty more of the same .

to be fair im looking at todays and last nights outputs in a more positive light in the sense that its not boring, im keeping and eye on heights lowering into mid euro and the azores height indeed was the coldies friend in winter 09/10.

 

nearly into nov now yes unsettled windy at times cooler in the north with more chance of hill snow at times southern half wet at times milder but not a big deal as as october 09 and the start of nov 09 that was similar.

 

the rollercoaster has started its journey one thing to note this year the pv has not had a head start and the likely hood of extreme events of last year are low.

[snowking]

Inevitably as the cooling gathers apace over the polar regions modelling is showing the falling off height anomalies in the 500hPa charts as we go into November.

I guess this is no surprise to most of us -the polar height anomalies we have seen thus far have been observed in many previous Octobers. I should add though the fact that we are now reverting to normal service as we approach November  doesn't mean anything wrt Winter prospects one way or the other. 

 

 

Wise words as always Phil, and whilst this is taking things slightly off topic I think it's worth pointing out to try and prevent a lot of ups and downs.

 

Anyone trying to pattern match in terms of specific synoptic patterns, as Phil correctly insinuates, and apply that going forward will likely have very little joy. As a case in point, here are two quick and contrasting examples.

 

November 2009:

 

 

November 1998:

 

Out of the two of these, which would you expect to lead on to something more promising the following winter?

 

Here are the CET readings for the following winter (anomalies vs 71-00 average in brackets):

 

1998/99:

Dec - 5.5c (+0.4c)

Jan - 5.5c (+1.3c)

Feb - 5.3c (+1.1c)

 

2009/10:

Dec - 3.1c (-2.0c)

Jan - 1.4c (-2.8c)

Feb - 2.8c (-1.2c)

 

As this hopefully demonstrates, how strong/weak the PV gets in November, particularly, I should add, during a period of -QBO, often has very little bearing on the following winter. Of course as we are potentially seeing with the OPI, October may be a different story altogether...

 

SK

[Polar Maritime]

Agree there Snow-King and others.. But please let's get back to Model Output Discussion in here. There is a Winter thread open for musings and thoughts/pattern matching.

 

Many Thanks, PM.

Edited October 25, 2014 by Polar Maritime