Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

[MattH]

Great post Tony...

 

Without any question I think that highlights, as you say, just how 'special' 2009 was in particular and how it just all happened and came together perfectly at the start of the winter ie; The initial wave 1 activity and with then the rapid increase in wave 2 activity through into December. The following is more speculation and suggestion rather than anything else to be honest and is just my own thoughts, but given the consistent signal, especially from the ECM ENS for this sig temp anom from the top of the strat down you would imagine now that there is a good chance this 'event' will take place. To say we are only at the beginning of November and seeing potential charts like this is a very good start if you ask me - http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha1_f240.gif

 

I think we sort of have to say wave 2, for now at least, is a side show and all focus should be on watching to see whether the ECM continues to pick up on the wave 1 development in the coming 7 to 10 days. In theory given those temp anom charts from WSI the [m'] values could become particularly high indeed at the top of the strat and then we hope it propogates down with time. I come back to the boxer analogy which has been used numerous times over the years in that this could well be the first major 'blow' to help weaken the vortex significantly. Perhaps (speculation and suggestion) as like happened in 2009 this could then be followed up wave 2 activity as we move into early December and hence we end up with then a solid chance of an official SSW circa mid to late December, if not earlier.

 

Said this the other day, but my money is on November generally coming and going without anything of worth in terms of cold at the surface and it's a waiting game, but we could really see something develop towards the Christmas and New Year period. As you quite rightly suggest, and with other information to back it up as well, you would imagine that somewhere along the lines between Dec and Mar one of those months (or a specific period) could well end up with a really -ve AO pattern and potentially a significantly -ve NAO pattern too.

 

Beggers can't be choosers and March 2013 gave us a good example of how under the right circumstances you can even get 'proper' cold weather and snow in March, but to me the best time for all this to come together would be between mid to late December and late January/early February.

 

Fascinating times ahead and here's hoping that wave 1 [m'] scale on the Berlin ECMWF charts starts to increase and increase and get more and more 'orange' as each day ticks by now, especially and initially above 10hPa...

 

Regards, Matt.

[chionomaniac]

I would agree with those thoughts, Tony and Matt.

 

Any possible tropospheric led upwelling wave 2 split ( which is difficult to forecast due to being trop based) is always likely to be a secondary bonus this late autumn. It is also less likely when comparing to similar years whereas the wave 1 upper based Canadian Warming is bang on what we would expect to see.

 

It was interesting to see Cohen's thoughts regarding bringing forward a possible SSW to early December but I don't think that will necessarily be the case.  I think that we will see the CW over the next few weeks before a period of vortex recovery. The CW will displace the upper vortex towards the Atlantic sector which will probably influence the troposphere during that time. Whether further wave 2 activity will create a split remains to be seen. Following this, I would agree with you Matt regarding the possibility of a SSW with late December as being the favoured time. Currently the Merra stats show that the strat temps and mean zonal winds are around average. The temps will take a hit and the mean zonal winds not rising above those critical values that I don't like to see ( > 60m/s at 1hPa and >40m/s at 10hPa).

 

Without the upwelling split then November will be average but the excitement will still build with cold possibilities later when winter arrives. 

[Duane S.]

Strongest upper Strat warming forecast yet, shame it's so far out, nice to look at though!

[Duane S.]

Right on cue, Wave 2 getting going...

 

 

[MattH]

Just a quick one, sort of a reference for the coming weeks and months but full November update of the EC Seasonal model is now out and it continues the theme from the last few months and seeing it is now November, essentially the EC Seasonal model is predicting a mild, wet and unsettled winter period with a text-book +NAO and +AO pattern across the Atlantic and polar region. Pressure is higher to the south and south-west of the UK and lower to the north and north-west with a broad W or SW'ly type with temps circa +0.5C to +1.5C above average.

 

The EUROSIP Seasonal model which takes into account the UKMO, NCEP, Meteo-France and ECMWF seasonal data will be out around the 15th, but I don't expect this to be much different as they have both been showing the same thing for some time now. In essence it looks a fascinating winter for a number of reasons and without question it is definitely a case of "seasonal models v signs and signals" this winter. Clearly there will be one outcome. My money is for the signs and signals to come to fruition this year and for the seasonal models to be wrong, but that being said they can't be ignored and won't be ignored at the UKMO I can tell you.

 

Regards, Matt.

[Interitus]

Strongest upper Strat warming forecast yet, shame it's so far out, nice to look at though!

image.jpg

 

It's right to be cautious with the long range charts -

6 days ago

 

Today for same forecast time

Edited November 11, 2014 by Interitus

[Recretos]

A quick comparison between ECM and GFS Parallel for the same time: I used the 1° grid output for the GFS parallel. 

  

 

  

 

  

 

 

 

Not much of a diference, expect in the temperature/zonal winds, due to model biases, which tend to affect temperature more than heights. 

 

In the FI:

  

 

Upper strat has a wave 3ih feel to it. 

 

 

Regards-

Edited November 11, 2014 by Recretos

[KyleHenry]

Correct me if I'm wrong, wave 1 cause and effect currently being observed in N America with Arctic incursion over duration of next 10 days.

Although still cautious regarding wave 2 at present , signs on models showing an extension of present Arctic incursion getting reloaded towards final third of November.

Beginning to look like quite a sustained low temp period for N America.

It would require a wave 3 to appear final week of Nov- start of December to shift current pattern. All hypothetical at present but an educated predication is allowed with current Synoptics.

Absolutely agree with Matt's higher than average temps and rainfall for NW Europe statement.

[chionomaniac]

Just a quick one, sort of a reference for the coming weeks and months but full November update of the EC Seasonal model is now out and it continues the theme from the last few months and seeing it is now November, essentially the EC Seasonal model is predicting a mild, wet and unsettled winter period with a text-book +NAO and +AO pattern across the Atlantic and polar region. Pressure is higher to the south and south-west of the UK and lower to the north and north-west with a broad W or SW'ly type with temps circa +0.5C to +1.5C above average.

 

The EUROSIP Seasonal model which takes into account the UKMO, NCEP, Meteo-France and ECMWF seasonal data will be out around the 15th, but I don't expect this to be much different as they have both been showing the same thing for some time now. In essence it looks a fascinating winter for a number of reasons and without question it is definitely a case of "seasonal models v signs and signals" this winter. Clearly there will be one outcome. My money is for the signs and signals to come to fruition this year and for the seasonal models to be wrong, but that being said they can't be ignored and won't be ignored at the UKMO I can tell you.

 

Regards, Matt.

Perhaps we will get a mix of both, with the longest cold spell following a SSW, and the longest Atlantic driven spell in the lead up to the possible SSW.....

 

It's right to be cautious with the long range charts -

6 days ago

NH_TMP_1mb_384.gif

 

Today for same forecast time

NH_TMP_1mb_240.gif

I've tried to stop looking past day 10.

Edited November 11, 2014 by chionomaniac

[MattH]

Perhaps we will get a mix of both, with the longest cold spell following a SSW, and the longest Atlantic driven spell in the lead up to the possible SSW.....

 

I've tried to stop looking past day 10.

 

Yes, I guess there is that option which wouldn't be the end of the world if you're after cold and snow, especially compared with last year. If two winter months are generally average to mild but one is particularly cold and snowy I don't think there could be too many complaints. To an extent I wouldn't want something 'down the middle' as there would then be an equal argument for both, overall, being correct. What is quite surprising is the vast difference between the seasonal models and that of the signs and signals which help us to come to the conclusion that a -AO pattern, for example, is likely/possible. As I mentioned to have a 2m temp anom of up to +1.5C would be quite noteworthy and to me that, overall, would signal that most of the winter would need to be on the milder side of average rather than colder.

 

No sitting on the fence for me this year, I can't divulge too much of my own thoughts as I have a winter forecast that I need to produce and provide for clients, but I've said it enough on twitter for it not to be a secret and over the space of Dec to Feb and especially if you include March as well, even though not a winter month of course, I'm expecting a winter completely different to last year and a strat vortex that, at some point, wil get ripped apart and a result have a big impact on the troposphere further down the line and it could well be the middle and back end of the winter that provides those 'winter goodies' for those who want it.

 

Cheers mate,

 

Matt.

[Mucka]

Yes, I guess there is that option which wouldn't be the end of the world if you're after cold and snow, especially compared with last year. If two winter months are generally average to mild but one is particularly cold and snowy I don't think there could be too many complaints. To an extent I wouldn't want something 'down the middle' as there would then be an equal argument for both, overall, being correct. What is quite surprising is the vast difference between the seasonal models and that of the signs and signals which help us to come to the conclusion that a -AO pattern, for example, is likely/possible. As I mentioned to have a 2m temp anom of up to +1.5C would be quite noteworthy and to me that, overall, would signal that most of the winter would need to be on the milder side of average rather than colder.

 

No sitting on the fence for me this year, I can't divulge too much of my own thoughts as I have a winter forecast that I need to produce and provide for clients, but I've said it enough on twitter for it not to be a secret and over the space of Dec to Feb and especially if you include March as well, even though not a winter month of course, I'm expecting a winter completely different to last year and a strat vortex that, at some point, wil get ripped apart and a result have a big impact on the troposphere further down the line and it could well be the middle and back end of the winter that provides those 'winter goodies' for those who want it.

 

Cheers mate,

 

Matt.

 

 

 

God bless you Matt, your enthusiasm got the better of you.

 

Just a quick thank you to all you guys supplying the strat/trop analysis and charts. I'm with Matt in that I hope the Winter be called decisively one way or another given that the seasonal model predictions and background signals for winter are polar opposites. (forgive the pun)

Edited November 11, 2014 by Mucka

[Recretos]

Cant help not to post it. GEFS and ECM to some extent, have a double MT event past 300h.

 

  

[bluearmy]

Cant help not to post it. GEFS and ECM to some extent, have a double MT event past 300h.

 

  

The parallel at the back end 10 hpa temps is really pushing the less cold ones across the pole. is that happening higher up recretos?

[Recretos]

Pretty much yes. It has one hell of a wave 1 in the upper strat, with secondary and terciary "quasi" waves.

If I could translate it to the FU Berlin wave charts, wave 1 would peak at 1600-1800 and wave 2 around 600-800. NOAA analysis would also detect wave 3 in there, but temperature wise it is pretty much a temp. wave 1 in the dominance, tho not that strong.

It is very similar to ECM in the mid range, and in the FI its something I would expect from ECM if it would go beyond 240h. Normal GFS on the other hand is quite biased as resolution drops. Most evident is mid and upper colder vortex and too warm upper strat temp waves.

[Skin]

Confused about what QBO phase we are in. The Holton 1980 paper defines it at the 50mb level. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/gcg/JR_site/papers/1980_6.pdf

 

And looking at the current chart. we are at the value of 31 (positive)

 

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat

[Duane S.]

Confused about what QBO phase we are in. The Holton 1980 paper defines it at the 50mb level. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/gcg/JR_site/papers/1980_6.pdf

 

And looking at the current chart. we are at the value of 31 (positive)

 

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat

I'm need to check the exact definition but definitely classed as an easterly phase. Easterly winds now cover from 10mb down to 50mb, it looks like easterlies have peaked at the top and starting to drop off but surely it will be way beyond the end of the winter before it turns westerly down to lower levels

[feb1991blizzard]

I'm need to check the exact definition but definitely classed as an easterly phase. Easterly winds now cover from 10mb down to 50mb, it looks like easterlies have peaked at the top and starting to drop off but surely it will be way beyond the end of the winter before it turns westerly down to lower levels

 

I think the actual definition is 30mb wind direction on the equator line.

[ukpaul]

"The QBO is measured at 30 hPa and has entered an easterly phase for this winter. "

 

It's in the first (excellent) post on this thread.

[Interitus]

"The QBO is measured at 30 hPa and has entered an easterly phase for this winter. "

 

It's in the first (excellent) post on this thread.

 

It is 30hPa (mb) for the NOAA NCEP data but around 45hPa for the Berlin data of Labitzke - as it descends through the stratosphere occasionally they will be in different phases.

[Skin]

"The QBO is measured at 30 hPa and has entered an easterly phase for this winter. "

 

It's in the first (excellent) post on this thread.

 

 

Believe me, I thought it was 30mb too. maybe because its in the middle of it all is why they use 30mb. Why not take the average of the data points from http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat  

[Recretos]

QBO is an oscillation that covers quite a vertical depth. It is a complex thing that cannot be bound to just one level, regardless what a study from 1980 said, because it is phasing through more than 35km of vertical depth.

As far as the winter stratosphere, SSWs and polar vortex are concerned, I personally, for practical reasons look at 30mb level, +/- 20mb. 50mb is not practical because that is pretty much the treshold below which the "dispersion" starts.

QBO is easy to spot actually (much easier than on raw numbers), if you look at mean zonal wind plots like the ones I make or the nice ones from FU Berlin.

So yes, we are without a doubt in a negative QBO phase right now.

Edited November 12, 2014 by Recretos

[snowking]

Apologies for the lack of charts as I am on my phone and so they are difficult to post.

Needless to say with continued (and slightly increased) Wave 1 and concurrent Wave 2 activity shown on the Berlin strat charts this morning from day 8 onwards, the vortex is going to come under some real pressure.

By day 10 it becomes very stretched and distorted, with zonal mean winds dropping all the way through the forecast period and looking as though it wil have a tendency to split a little later on beyond day 10. Current forecasts suggest once again that the main bulk of the stratospheric vortex will end up in Siberia.

Interestingly the profiles would also favour a ridge over the UK towards the day 10 period to perhaps offer something a little more settled.

Big attack approaching I suspect , though within the reliable timeframe this appears limited to the stratosphere...deciphering what happens further down the line troposphericallty should keep us entertained in the weeks to come

SK

[MattH]

Hmmm, just one model run as per usual but very interesting indeed, where did that wave 2 activity suddenly come from...

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha2_f192.gif

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha2_f216.gif

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha2_f240.gif

 

Wave 1 continues to 'tick over' especially at the top of the strat...

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha1_f216.gif

 

That's quite a warming through a decent layer of the strat, again all related to wave 2

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ta2_f240.gif

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf70f192.gif

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf50f192.gif

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf30f240.gif

 

From the way it was looking a few days and especially given the progression away from really getting this Greenland block within the troposphere it looked like, to me anyway, that wave 2 activity would generally be a side show and the future would be a wave 1 driven scenario and 'event'. I repeat myself and say this is just one model run and could clearly be gone by this time tomorrow, but that is some of the best set of charts so far this season and perhaps this output came from the ECMWF's pattern of a ridge pattern over Alaska, trough over the E USA, ridged pattern to the N of the UK before another trough pattern over Siberia (as attached)...

 

Interesting, lets hope the wave 2 signal keeps developing...

 

Matt.

[Recretos]

Matt and SK have beaten me too it, but oh well.

 

A quite charming forecast from ECM this morning, that deserves to have the charts saved and uploaded, because the links will not work when we look back in a year or so. ECM really is keeping up the tempo and pushing it forward. 

 

 

 

Waves are increasing nicely, with wave 2 being the most obvious one and the most expected one. The wave2 combination on its own is excellent, Atl-Pac combination. And the EP-Flux is starting to become of importance. As for the wave charts, you have to keep in mind, that 400m at 300hpa or even 30hpa is in reality much more defined than 800m at 1mb. 

 

   

As far as the para GFS goes, it actually pulled out a wave 2 aswell. 

 

  

 

Tropospherically speaking, they do both have the tropospheric vortex in a pretty messed up state, but with some important differences. Tho it gets obvious where the strat wave 2 came from. 

 

 

 

Cant have a model post without FI, where judging by the Para GFS, the vortex is slowly but steadily losing the battle. If the double MT event would also come into fruition, we could be looking at a very beat up strat vortex around the first half of December, without speculating any further. 

 

 

 

Regards

[KyleHenry]

Wave 2 currently at 8-10 days away. My interest is in how it interacts with Canadian section of PV. Models have wave 2 still rotating it towards Svalbard.

I just can't tell if it will rotate back over central N Canada, 60% not likely.

BDC

http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/monthly/monthly_2014-11_NH.html

There's no current update from NASA for November, but looking at how concentration was in October 2014 I presume it is still the same location.

CW event has a chance to develop in one of two windows but Recretos' possible double MT event has me very unsure now.

If all these factors play out the PV is taking right, left hooks pinned on the ropes with two mountain torques upper cuts incoming.

If the PV makes it through this barrage of blows I'm calling it the Mohammad Ali of PV's