Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

[karyo]

Pretty good warming on the 18z, starting just before 300 hours!

 

Karyo

[Recretos]

Yes, 18z kinda continues in the same spirit. Just now, a thought has hit me, that that new GFS is already running in parallel. Cant wait to get home and get my hands on it, to see what it offers us regarding the strat. It will be really fun playing around with it.

 

EDIT:

As promised...

Let me be the first to have the honour to present you stratospheric output from the new GFS (first at least for some ). Nothing really special, just keeps the same idea, but with some interesting differences.

Since it is a fairly new thing, with new physics and so on, it probably has a bias or two, yet to be discovered. But its fun anyway, to have such a thing to play with.

 

Changes are also noticed in the upper strat, especially with temperature profiles.

 

 

 

Will add GEFS Control since I had some time left.

 

Edited November 4, 2014 by Recretos

[MattH]

Thanks for those images Recretos, interesting to see as ever...

 

It does seem to be one of those scenarios at the moment in that the most interesting signals do remain beyond the 'reliable time frame' of whatever you wish to determine that phrase to be. However, what remains very interesting is the continued clear consistency within the broader synoptic patterns and where the main troughs and ridges are that support Cohens ideas through November and how this will (hopefully) place increasing 'stress' on the strat vortex with time. Once again note the ECM v GFS charts...

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

Yesteday's ECM 12Z weakens wave 1 activity towards D6/D7 but then re-develops it once again towards the end of the period. In essence it looks like it's on its way out but the signal then returns.

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=all&var=ha1&lng=eng

 

Clearly caution required given the time frames involved and it is just the GFS at long range, but the continued signal for this kind of synoptic pattern and distinct lack of an organised polar (tropospheric) vortex the deeper we go into November remains a consistent theme too.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

 

By no means am I saying November 2010 will repeat itself this year, all I'm trying to place emphasis on from everything I've seen operationally, on a daily basis, points towards November progressing without the vortex really getting going. Clearly we all know what happened this time last year, or especially mid-November onwards ( http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2013/Rrea00120131115.gif ) and beyond and at the moment the situation looks very different. Here's hoping wave 1/2 activity continues to become increasing noteworthy with time and continues to increase the 'stress' on the vortex. At this point in the season it's like trying to stop a water leak; The leak may well be there and it could get worse, but if an equal or greater amount of 'pressure' is applied to the leak then it won't get any worse, if that makes sense!...

 

Cheers, Matt.

 

NB: Take a read of this and look at the pics....

 

https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/529589913193553920

Edited November 4, 2014 by MattHugo

[Recretos]

In the outer reaches of the parallel GFS, the image is kinda different than from its older brother. It looks more wave2-ish on the end.

 

 

 

And as far as wave2 goes, its is also starting to smell it in the mid strat aswell, with the upper strat banging that wave 1 like there is no tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I know I am dealing with FI here, and an untested model, but that is exactly the fun of it, since everybody else is covering the mid terms and other charts.

Regards

 

[summer blizzard]

When was the last November to match this one in terms of our wave action.

[Snowy L]

As far as I remember in November 2010 there was only a bit of tropospheric-lead wave breaking yet we saw the polar vortex absolutely destroyed for 3 weeks. I think Chiono mentioned in the past the location, not the quantity, of the wave breaking was important and it happened over the Greenland area?

[Hocus Pocus]

When was the last November to match this one in terms of our wave action.

Was it not 2009?

[radiohead]

Here is the strat thread from 2009 if that helps :

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/57364-stratosphere-temperature-watch/

[Nouska]

JMA have an archive back to 1958 - 300hPa flux, 100 and 30 height anomaly available.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_mon_tcc.html

 

2009 monthly mean.

 

 

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Here is the strat thread from 2009 if that helps :

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/57364-stratosphere-temperature-watch/

Well iv just ready the first 6 pages of the 2009 thread and it's amazing to watch events unfold and the excitement of GP and chinomaniac grow , certainly chiono's silence last year was enough in itself that it was a no goer . Things looking very good this year and very similar to 09 , have a really good feeling this year folks .

[Recretos]

GFS is ramping it up beyond belief in the upper strat. I am really sorry I dont have the time to make a longer post with analysis of the current GFS calamities, but on a quick look, there does seem to be a EAMT event partially behind all of it, or actually two or more sequential. And the probable reason why this scenario is so fixed in the GFS is because the EAMT starts in a fairly good range, day 6-8, which is not too bad skill-wise. I would need more time to verify all of it.

 

  

 

SInce the normal GFS is available to all, I will add parallel GFS strat output, which is kinda in agreement, and looking fairly good. Model consistency is always nice to see when strat dynamics are in question. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We will see how long it lasts and how much it evolves, but it is obvious by now, that strat-wise we are most certainly looking at potentially something totally different than last year. 

 

 

 

So much for now. 

 

Regards.

Edited November 5, 2014 by Recretos

[MattH]

Recretos beat me to it this morning with his excellent graphics but find attached the more 'bog standard' GFS charts...

I think the importance of the reanalysis charts Recretos posted of this time last year really does help to highlight the differences so far this year and so early in the season to.

The most impressive outputs continue to be within the far reaches of the GFS but equally we are starting to see something of more significance even at 216hr and 240hr now.

Cheers. Matt

[bluearmy]

Yesterday's ECM is showing the warming high up at day 10. Whether it can sustain itself into high resolution on the gfs output is now the question. even if it wanes somewhat, it will still affect the upper vortex re strengthening.

[Duane S.]

Best projected upper strat warmings yet on the last two runs...

 

 

 

Could we be looking at a growing CW?

 

Long way out of course but even a more watered down version is great news as the pv will not be allowed a chance to gain a foothold at a time of year we would relly expect to see it starting to dominate proceedings

 

 

This is a pretty healthy chart as well for the time of year...

 

If the GFS is right about the warming, I can see some eye popping versions of D10 in about a week's time

[feb1991blizzard]

Problem with the ECM is that in the mid strat, the vortex gets stretched but then seems to regain strength right at the end of the run wheras the GFS just continues to stretch the vortex.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Frozen Britain]

Just seen these. Wow, wow, wow. How is this for warming at the top of the stratosphere down?

[Cloud 10]

Posted over in the winter thread,but worth putting in here as well.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81288-early-winter-hopes-and-chat/page-61#entry3064548

[Catacol]

That's not good. They are seeing a pretty northerly storm track and a Euro/omega high in the latter half of the winter - if I read that right. Not the high lat or scandy blocking we crave!

[Recretos]

Instead of posting only model outputs, I decided to do something else. I have plotted linear correlation between November N. Hemisphere snowcover area and geopotential height in mid and lower strat. This isnt really any new info, but just it is interesting and it kinda supports the SAI theory. 

 

I am not going to go into the theory of linear correlations, unless a lot of people wouldn't know what its about. 

 

The correlation at 100mb is pretty straightforward, with the wave2-ish look to it, with the difference that instead of the usual Atl-Pac waves, we have more of a Eur/As-Pac combination. 

 

 

In the mid strat, the correlation is there for decent wave activity, with more of a wave2 feel to it, but at least a strong wave 1. 

 

 

And the 500mb correlation, which is not that far from the reality this month. 

 

  

 

Ending off with a GFS Para output. 

 

 

 

Yours truly, 

Andrew.

[karyo]

Posted over in the winter thread,but worth putting in here as well.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81288-early-winter-hopes-and-chat/page-61#entry3064548

Are you trying to depress us???

[MattH]

Worth a mention....

Edited November 5, 2014 by MattHugo

[Don]

Are you trying to depress us???

 

Yes, a bit of a kick in the teeth but what will be will be.

[Snowman.]

Yes, a bit of a kick in the teeth but what will be will be.

 

It's a forecast and a long ranged one.

 

Doesn't mean it's going to be correct in the slightest it just means there is a possibility.

[Cloud 10]

Are you trying to depress us???

 

 

Yes, a bit of a kick in the teeth but what will be will be.

 

 

Am i missing something here?

 

The blog is suggesting a weakening of the jetstream and more chance of blocking and colder weather as we head for December thanks to an Asian strat warming.

 

"Nevertheless, it hints that we may progressively see a trend to a weather pattern offering something colder as we move towards December."

[Don]

It's a forecast and a long ranged one.

 

Doesn't mean it's going to be correct in the slightest it just means there is a possibility.

 

Obviously no-one is saying it will be correct!  It would have been better if they were going for a cold Winter though and I don't think they have a bad track record with their Winter LRF's either.  Not in any way saying they will be correct though.

 

Am i missing something here?

 

The blog is suggesting a weakening of the jetstream and more chance of blocking and colder weather as we head for December thanks to an Asian strat warming.

 

"Nevertheless, it hints that we may progressively see a trend to a weather pattern offering something colder as we move towards December."

 

It suggests cold shots for the UK and Ireland early Winter and then average to milder than average more likely later on?  However, even if their forecast does end up close to the mark, it's still likely to be a more interesting Winter than last year.